Josh Allen's MVP campaign returns from the bye week and hits primetime against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday Night Football.
Allen's been putting up astounding numbers on his path to a potential first MVP award. How astounding? Let's take a look.
Path to MVP going through MVPs
Narrative matters when we're talking MVP, and Allen's been at his best against the best this year. The Bills crashed the Rams' Super Bowl party with a blowout win in Los Angeles to open the season. He also led wins on the road against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 4 and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 6.
Now onto Week 8 in Buffalo, where Allen and company will welcome four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers to town. Jackson, Mahomes and Rodgers have collectively won the last four NFL MVP awards and Allen can beat their teams all in the month of October.
He would be the first QB since Troy Aikman in 1996 to beat three MVP QBs in a four-game span. Aikman ran through a trio you may have heard of: Dan Marino. Steve Young. Brett Favre.
Perhaps the sweetest part of Allen's wins over the Ravens and Chiefs was how he did it. The Bills' Achilles' heel last season was finishing close games. They were 0-6 in games decided by one possession. They are 2-1 this year thanks to Allen leading game-winning drives in Baltimore and Kansas City while his counterparts threw back-breaking interceptions.
He leads the NFL in passing TDs (5) and passer rating (117.9) in the two-minute drill (final two minutes of each half). With numbers like that, Allen will keep the momentum going with another statement win on Sunday.
Historic production
Another driving force behind Allen's MVP case is the eye-popping numbers.
He's been a one-man band of sorts, becoming the third player in NFL history with at least 2,200 yards (passing and rushing) through six games of a season. The others were Steve Young in 1998 and Kurt Warner in 2000.
| Most Yards (Passing & Rushing) in First Six Games of Season in NFL History | |
|---|---|
2000 Kurt Warner | 2,275 |
2022 Josh Allen | 2,237 |
1998 Steve Young | 2,222 |
Entering the Bills' bye, his 2,237 yards were more than 26 entire teams and his 19 touchdowns more than 29 teams. He's accounted for 85 percent of the Bills' yards and 91 percent of their touchdowns this season.
He's been a fantasy MVP, too. His 206.9 fantasy points are fourth-most by any player at this point in a season since 1970, behind Russell Wilson's 221.3 in 2020, Steve Young's 214.8 in 1998 and Peyton Manning's 213.0 in 2013.
And keep in mind, these numbers are with the Bills winning half of their games by at least three touchdowns this season. Imagine if Allen wasn't taking his foot off the throttle late in those games. He ranks just 27th in the league in fourth-quarter pass attempts. He still leads the league in touchdown passes (11) and passing yards (1,213) in the first half this season despite playing one fewer game than most teams due to Buffalo's bye.
Despite some blowouts, he's on pace for an NFL-record 5,610 passing yards. Maybe the most impressive part about that, he's also the Bills' leading rusher (257 yards). There's nothing he can't do.
The long and short of it
Allen's production comes from a perfect storm of a rocket arm, precision accuracy and a great supporting cast.
His arm talent is off the charts, as he's been dropping dimes to the tune of 11-for-15 passing, 497 yards and five touchdowns on throws 25-plus yards downfield. Somehow he has more touchdown passes than incompletions on those throws. The league-wide completion rate is 31 percent and Aaron Rodgers is 3-for-24. These aren't layups.
Extend it further and he's 6-for-7 on throws 35-plus yards and has the same number of touchdown passes traveling 50 yards downfield (two) as the rest of the NFL combined.
| Josh Allen Longest Throws This Season | |
|---|---|
Air Yards | Result |
55 | Pass TD |
52 | Pass TD |
50 | Incomplete |
46 | Pass TD |
40 | Complete |
38 | Pass TD |
36 | Complete |
28 | Pass TD |
28 | Complete |
28 | Incomplete |
26 | Complete |
26 | Complete |
26 | Incomplete |
26 | Incomplete |
25 | Complete |
Gabe Davis has been his not-too-secret weapon. Allen is averaging 27.4 yards per completion targeting Davis. No other duo is over 20.0 in that category this year (minimum 10 completions).
Thanks in part to Davis, Allen already has touchdown passes in the following yardage range: 1-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 90-99 this season. He's a 70-yarder and 80-yarder away from completing his bingo card.
It's not all haymakers though as Allen will go jab, jab, jab, jab, knockout punch. His sack rate has dropped for the fourth straight season and his off-target rate is at an all-time low because he is getting rid of the ball quicker. A lot quicker. Try 0.26 seconds faster than last season. The only players with a more drastic shift have been Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.
With a more refined approach and home run power, it's no wonder Allen is taking the league by storm this season.
