NFL Week 16 early odds: Patriots favored big over Bills, Packers open as underdog to Vikings

Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 16

For the first time all season, the NFL is finally giving us some Saturday football, and we'll be getting that in the form of a tripleheader on Dec. 21. That's right, we'll be getting three games, and surprisingly, they'll all have some major playoff implications. 

The biggest game of the day is probably the showdown that will be happening at Gillette Stadium between the Bills and the Patriots. Surprisingly, the Bills have opened as a big underdog in this game. In the early odds for Week 16, the Patriots have opened as a seven-point favorite. The good news for Bills fans is that the last three times that Buffalo has opened as an underdog of seven or more points, the Bills have gone 3-0 against the spread (ATS). The bad news for Bills fans is that they're just 1-2 straight-up in those games.

If you're thinking about throwing some money down on the Saturday games this year, here are three trends that might help you decide which way to bet. Besides Bills-Patriots, we'll also be getting Texans-Buccaneers and Rams-49ers on Saturday. 

• If you like betting underdogs, then Saturday is the day to do it, and that's because they're 4-0-1 ATS in their past five Saturday games. 
• Road teams have also done a good job of covering the spread on Saturdays, going 5-0-1 ATS in their past six. 
  
• In the eight Saturday games played since the start of the 2017 season, the under has hit a total of six times. 

In non-Saturday games, the NFL will also be giving us a juicy showdown on Monday when the Vikings host the Packers. The Vikings have opened as a 4.5 point favorite over Green Bay, which is somewhat surprising, considering Minnesota is employing a quarterback who has never won a game on Monday night. 

So how bad is Kirk Cousins' Monday night record? For a look at that and all the other odds and trends for Week 16, let's get to the early odds and find out. 

Week 15 is almost in the books and there's a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe right here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.

Oh, and if you're thinking about laying any money on this week's slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 16 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 16, make sure to click here. 

Alright, now let's really get to the odds. 

NFL Week 16 odds

(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. All betting trends reflect regular season games only)

Texans (9-5) at Buccaneers (7-7), Saturday

Opening line: Pick'em

This game is a pick'em, which means one thing you probably want to consider is that the Bucs are the hottest team in the NFC. They're currently on a four-game winning streak, which is the longest streak in the NFC and the tied for the second-longest in the NFL. During that streak the Bucs have gone 3-0-1 ATS. As for the Texans, they're just 4-8 straight-up in their past 12 games against NFC teams and 2-6 ATS in their past eight against the NFC. One thing to keep in mind here is that Jameis Winston could be missing a few weapons. Besides Mike Evans, there's a good chance Chris Godwin could also be out. Godwin left Sunday's game after suffering a hamstring injury. 

Bills (10-4) at Patriots (11-3), Saturday

Opening line: Patriots -7 

This has basically been one of the most lopsided divisional rivalries in the NFL over the past 15 years. Since 2004, the Patriots have gone 28-3 straight-up against the Bills, which includes a mark of 18-11-1 ATS. The Patriots have also won six straight games in this series with five of those six wins coming by at least 12 points. If you're looking for a reason to bet the Bills, they've covered in two straight games against the Patriots and they've also covered three straight games against any team when they were an underdog of seven points or more. 

Rams (8-6) at 49ers (11-3), Saturday

Opening line: 49ers -6.5 

If there's one thing Kyle Shanahan has struggled to do during his 49ers tenure, it's cover the spread against divisional opponents. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the 49ers are just 2-7-1 ATS against NFC West teams. On the other hand, Sean McVay has been the complete opposite, going 10-4 ATS in his past 14 games against divisional opponents, which includes a mark of 5-1 ATS In his past six. However, the one game where the Rams didn't cover in the span came back in Week 6, when the Rams lost 20-7 as a three-point favorite against the 49ers. One other thing to consider is that the 49ers are 0-5-1 ATS this season when favored by six or more points (5-1 straight-up), including Sunday's loss to the Falcons. 

Jaguars (5-9) at Falcons (5-9)

Opening line: Falcons -6.5

This is your final chance of the 2019 to take advantage of one of the craziest streaks in sports: The Falcons can't cover against AFC teams. In their past 13 games against the AFC, the Falcons have gone 1-12 straight up and 0-13 ATS, and that is not a typo. The Falcons haven't covered in any of their past 13 games against the AFC, and that includes going 0-3 both straight-up and ATS against the AFC South this year. On the flip side, this might actually be the week where you don't want to bet against the Falcons, and that's because the Jags are just as bad against NFC teams. Since 2013, the Jags are 4-23 both straight-up and ATS against NFC teams. The Jags are also 0-6 ATS in their past six games against the NFC, so someone's ugly streak has to end this week. 

Ravens (12-2) at Browns (6-8)

Opening line: Ravens -8

The Ravens have been one of the best road teams in the NFL this year. Not only have they won five straight away from Baltimore, but they're also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 road games dating back to last season. The Ravens have also covered in seven straight December road games dating back to 2017. As for the Browns, although they've historically struggled against the Ravens -- just 4-16 straight-up in their past 20 -- the Browns have won two of three against Baltimore while going 3-0 ATS in those games. However, an upset here would be pretty shocking, and that's because the Browns are 2-48 straight-up in the past 50 games where they were an underdog of seven or more points. Of course, one of those two wins came in Week 4 when the Browns upset the Ravens 40-25 in a game where Cleveland was a 7.5-point underdog. 

Saints (10-3) at Titans (8-6)

Opening line: Saints -2

The Saints don't always seem to cover against AFC teams, but they do seem to beat them. In their past nine games against the AFC, the Saints are 9-0 straight-up, but just 5-4 ATS (This doesn't include their Monday game against the Colts). The Saints are also 4-1 both straight-up and ATS in the past five games where they've been favored by one to three points. As for the Titans, they're 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games against the NFC and they're also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games as a home underdog. 

Panthers (5-9) at Colts (6-7)

Opening line: Colts -6.5

In their past 15 games against NFC teams, the Colts have gone 10-4-1 ATS (not including Monday's game against the Saints). The Colts have been especially good at home against the NFC, winning four straight, and going 5-1 ATS in their past six. As for the Panthers, they're 8-2 both straight-up and ATS in their past 10 games against AFC teams. However, Carolina is probably the last team you want to bet on right now and that's because they have the second-longest losing streak in the NFL (six games), and they've gone 1-4-1 ATS in that span. That being said, the Panthers are 5-0-1 in their past six games where they were an underdog of six or more, including Sunday's push with the Seahawks (The Colts are 1-7 ATS in the past eight games where they were favored by six or more, and just 5-3 straight-up)

Bengals (1-13) at Dolphins (3-11)

Opening line: Dolphins -2.5

As bad as the Bengals have been over the past few years, they almost always somehow to find a way to cover when they're playing on the road. In their past 12 road games, the Bengals are an UGLY 0-12 straight-up, but they're 8-4 ATS. The Bengals are also 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 December road games. As for the Dolphins, they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight December home games, and they're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. One odd thing to keep in mind with this game is that the Bengals will clinch the first overall pick in the NFL Draft with a loss, and it's almost ironic that they could clinch the top pick against Miami since we all thought it was the Dolphins who were going to tank to get the top pick this season.  

Steelers (8-6) at Jets (5-9)

Opening line: Steelers -3 

Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have been nearly unbeatable at the end of the season. Over the past 10 years, the Steelers have gone 17-3 straight-up in games that were played in either Week 16 or Week 17, which includes a mark of 13-6-1 ATS. As for the Jets, although they're just 5-9 this on the season they've been pretty good at home. Dating back to Week 6, the Jets have gone 4-1 straight-up at home with wins over the Cowboys, Raiders, Giants and Dolphins. However, that might not help them much now that it's December. In their past six December games, the Jets have gone 0-5-1 ATS. 

Giants (3-11) at Redskins (3-11)

Opening line: Redskins -2.5

If there's one team the Giants have dominated over the past few years, it's definitely the Redskins. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Giants have gone 9-4 both straight-up and ATS against Washington, and that includes a 24-3 win earlier this year when the Giants covered as a 3-point favorite. Another thing not helping the Redskins' cause is that they're playing at home, where they've been a total disaster, going 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 ATS In their past 10. Not to mention, the Giants have been doing a pretty impressive job of covering on the road recently, going 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games (4-10 straight-up). 

Lions (3-10) at Broncos (5-9)

Opening line: Broncos -6 

In their past seven games against AFC teams, the Lions have gone 6-1 ATS. That being said, the Lions are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games where they were an underdog of six or more points, and that includes losing four straight. Overall, the Lions are one team you probably want to stay away from, and that's because they've gone 1-8 both straight-up and ATS in their past nine games. On the Broncos' end, in their past 15 games where they were favored by six or more, the Broncos have gone 12-3 straight-up, but just 8-7 ATS. 

Raiders (6-8) at Chargers (5-9)

Opening line: Chargers -4.5

The Chargers are 4-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past five games against the Raiders, but that one loss did come earlier this year when the Raiders beat L.A. as a one-point underdog. One potential problem for the Chargers in this game is that it's being played at home, where they've been downright bad, going 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine games, including Sunday's loss to Minnesota (In that same stretch, they've gone 3-6 straight-up). Of course, if there's one team the Chargers can beat at home, it might be the Raiders, who are 2-11 straight-up and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 road games. 

Cowboys (7-7) at Eagles (7-7)

Opening line: Cowboys -2.5

If there's one time you should bet on the Cowboys, it's when they're playing an NFC East team, which is definitely good news for Dallas this week, since a win against Philadelphia would clinch the division title. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Cowboys have gone 14-2 both straight-up and ATS against divisional opponents. That total includes four straight wins over the Eagles, with the Cowboys covering in each one of those games. On the Eagles' end, their home-field advantage hasn't been much of an advantage, with Philly going 7-6 straight-up in their past 13 home games and 4-9 ATS. Although Philadelphia weather can be crazy in December, the Cowboys might not have to deal with anything wild on Sunday, and that's because the current forecast is calling for high-40s and sunny. 

Cardinals (4-9-1) at Seahawks (11-3)

Opening line: Seahawks -9

In news that might surprise you, the Cardinals have actually been one of the safest bets when it comes to covering divisional games on the road. In their past 20 road games against NFC West teams, the Cardinals have gone 14-5-1 ATS (11-9 straight-up). Although the Seahawks are usually tough at home, they've actually struggled recently, going just 2-5 ATS in their past seven (5-2 straight-up). The Seahawks also haven't gone a great job of covering large point spreads, going just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games where they've been favored by a touchdown or more. 

Chiefs (10-4) at Bears (7-7)

Opening line: Chiefs -4 

The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field might be more famous, but the frozen tundra of Soldier Field has also turned into quite the home-field advantage. Not only have the Bears won five straight December home games, but they've also gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games at Soldier Field. As for the Chiefs, if there's one time you should avoid betting them, it seems to be when they're playing on the road against NFC teams. The last 10 times that's happened, the Chiefs have gone 3-7 straight-up and just 2-7-1 ATS. They're also 1-4 straight-up and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five road games against NFC teams. Before you bet against the Chiefs though, just remember that they've won and covered in four straight games this season, including Sunday's win over the Broncos. One other thing worth mentioning is that the Bears are 4-10 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. 

Packers (11-3) at Vikings (10-4), Monday

Opening line: Vikings -4.5

Green Bay could clinch the NFC North with a victory in this game, and the good news for the Packers is that they'll be going up against a quarterback who's never won a Monday game in his career. Since being drafted in 2012, Kirk Cousins has gone 0-8 straight-up on Monday nights. As for the Packers, they're 5-1 straight-up in their past six Monday games. Of course, that doesn't mean you should automatically bet the Packers. One reason you might want to stay away is because the Packers are 0-6 straight-up in the past six games where they've been an underdog of four or more points (2-4 ATS). As for the Vikings, they're 16-3 straight-up in the past 19 games where they've been favored by four or more and 13-6 ATS.