A 4-1 ATS week on my top five picks, and 9-7 ATS overall. Picking the Washington Commanders to cover three points just because it was my dad's birthday was pretty incredible. Jacoby Brissett saved us there with a 21-point run in the second half. The Detroit Lions came through for us for the first time in what feels like ages, and I had a feeling Case Keenum was going to struggle against the Cleveland Browns defense. Also shoutout to the Carolina Panthers, who have covered the spread two straight weeks now. We predicted that as well.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 37-39-4
Overall ATS record: 108-121-11
Straight up record: 143-97
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Joe Flacco has become one of the stories of the season. He's the NFL's leader in passing yards per game since making his first start for Cleveland, and I've been joking he's already one of the best quarterbacks in Browns franchise history since he became the first Brown to throw for 300 yards in three straight wins. I'm not going to pretend he's Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson, but he's been pretty solid.
This is a revenge game for Flacco, who for some reason did not get a call from the Jets once Aaron Rodgers went down despite the fact he started four games for the club last year. Robert Saleh said the Jets don't regret not calling him, but they have already been eliminated from playoff contention while Flacco has Cleveland as the top wild card team in the conference.
The Browns lead the NFL in total defense while the Jets are last in total offense. Trevor Siemian is starting again for New York, and I wasn't very impressed with him last week. The Jets offense is just quickly getting the ball into the hands of Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson and hoping they can make multiple people miss.
I don't like that Amari Cooper is questionable to play after not practicing all week following his historic outing against the Houston Texans, but I still think the Browns can cover this number at home.
The pick: Browns -7.5
Projected score: Browns 23-10
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Cowboys have been a different animal at home this year, as they are a perfect 7-0, and have outscored opponents by 171 points. The Lions have a great offense, but I have major concerns about the defense.
Detroit picked off Nick Mullens four times last week in the win over the Minnesota Vikings, but that's because Mullens was throwing bad passes. The Lions were out-gained in total yardage, while the Vikings put up 24 points despite the four turnovers. Mullens even had the Vikings in position to take the lead late in the fourth quarter, but instead threw another pick. The Cowboys, who have the top scoring offense in the league since Week 7, should thrive against what has been the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL since Week 7.
The pick: Cowboys -6
Projected score: Cowboys 35-27
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Picking the Eagles to cover double digits against the New York Giants was the lone loss in my top picks last week, but I'm going to give Jalen Hurts and Co. another shot. Philly has already clinched a playoff spot, but the Eagles still have to compete for the division crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference -- which is invaluable. There's motivation to get back to playing elite ball before the playoffs start, and that mission begins this week in front of their home fans.
The pick: Eagles -10.5
Projected score: Eagles 30-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs fell to the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas in what was one of the biggest upsets of the season. The offense looks bad, as Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career-low in passing yards per game (262.5) and yards per attempt (6.9) this season. However, after that loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs should be MAD. Plus, the Bengals are a legitimate rival.
Mahomes has three career losses to the Bengals, including playoffs. That's tied for the most losses he's taken against a single opponent. Joe Burrow isn't playing, so the Chiefs still should have the advantage.
The Bengals are allowing a whopping 6.1 yards per play this season, which ranks most in the NFL. They just allowed a quarterback who hadn't made a start since 2021 to register one of the best QB performances for the Pittsburgh Steelers in years (first Steelers quarterback to throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns since Ben Roethlisberger in 2021). Give me Kansas City at home.
The pick: Chiefs -7
Projected score: Chiefs 30-20
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 17.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Russell Wilson has been benched following a bad loss at home to the New England Patriots. This move has much to do with injury guarantees in his contract, but I do believe it has to do with his on-field performance as well. Box-score watchers will claim Wilson has been a "good" quarterback this year, but when you watch the Broncos, the offense looks bad. The play-calling seems off, and I question how much faith Sean Payton has/had in Wilson. Now enter Jarrett Stidham, who may be a quarterback Payton has more confidence in.
It's deja vu, as Stidham has been promoted to starter the week after Christmas for a quarterback benched because of injury guarantees in his contract. Last year for the Raiders, Stidham stepped in against the loaded San Francisco 49ers and threw for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in a three-point loss. Payton is looking for a "spark," and I'm going to bet Stidham provides it.
I don't want to gloss over the performance Easton Stick and the Chargers had last week against the Buffalo Bills, but I'll still take Denver here at home.
The pick: Broncos -3.5
Projected score: Broncos 24-16
Other Week 17 picks
Ravens 27-24 over Dolphins (+3.5)
Bills 21-14 over Patriots (+13)
Bears (-3) 26-21 over Falcons
Texans (-5) 27-20 over Titans
Colts (-3.5) 23-16 over Raiders
Jaguars (-6.5) 24-17 over Panthers
Rams 23-20 over Giants (+4.5)
Buccaneers (-2.5) 21-16 over Saints
49ers (-13) 31-14 over Commanders
Seahawks 21-20 over Steelers (+3.5)
Packers (+2) 23-21 over Vikings
