If Week 4 of the NFL season goes anything like Week 3, I might have to take a 14-month vacation to recover, because I'm not sure I can handle anymore craziness. What we saw in Week 3 was easily one of the wackiest weekends of football that the NFL has ever produced.
I mean, anytime the word "butt" is trending on Twitter during an NFL game, you know things have gone off the rails and nothing is more off the rails than a butt-punt safety, which somehow happened in Week 3. The craziest part about the butt-punt is that it wasn't even the most bizarre safety that took place on Sunday and that's because Jimmy Garoppolo exists.
The video below is of Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but it might as well be of 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, because I'm guessing that's how he felt after Garoppolo safetied himself against the Broncos.
On a somewhat related note, that's also how I react any time I miss a pick. Speaking of my picks, let's get to them.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here, but you were probably already well aware of that since I mention it every week.
One other thing that I mention every week is that you can now hear me on the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com. For the rest of the 2022 season, I'll be joining host Will Brinson four days per week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday). Even though I'm only on four days per week, there's a new episode every single day from Monday through Friday and you should try to listen as often as possible.
On Tuesday's episode, which you can listen to below, we covered the Cowboys win over the Giants and we spent most of the show debating whether the Giants are any good and how long the Cowboys should let Dak Prescott rest his injured thumb since Cooper Rush never loses .
Alright, no more talking about the podcast, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 4 Picks
Miami (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
I'll be honest here, I don't even want to pick this game and that's mainly because I've whiffed on every Dolphins game I've picked this season. Through three weeks, there are only two teams I've gone 0-3 picking and the Dolphins are one of them (The Browns are the other). With the Dolphins, I've been having a zig-zag problem: When I think they're going to zig, they zag. When I think they're going down, they go right. When I think they're going to lose because they're trailing by 21 points in the fourth quarter, they win. I think the Dolphins are mocking me. I can't handle it anymore.
In Week 1, I picked Miami to lose to New England because Mike McDaniel was coaching in his first game ever and I thought for sure that Bill Belichick would thoroughly embarrass him, but I was wrong. Instead, I embarrassed myself with my pick.
In Week 2, I took Baltimore over Miami and I REGRET NOTHING. With 13 minutes left to play, I looked like a genius because the Ravens had an insurmountable 35-14 lead that apparently wasn't as insurmountable as I thought. I now hate the word insurmountable and I will never be using it again after today.
In Week 3, I predicted that Miami would lose to Buffalo and based on the box score I saw from the game, the Dolphins should have lost 51-13. The Bills put up nearly 500 yards of offense (497) and somehow still lost to a Dolphins team that didn't even put up half that total (212 yards). Here's how improbable their win over the Bills was:
In the last 16 years, NFL teams are 2-106 when being out-gained by at least 275 yards. The two wins:— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) September 26, 2022
2020 Dolphins vs Rams (Tua)
2022 Dolphins vs Bills (Tua)
I feel no shame for taking the Bills. As a matter of fact, if I could do it all over, I'd still pick against the Dolphins in all three games. I AM THAT STUBBORN. Just kidding, if I was re-picking, I'd definitely pick them to beat the Patriots in Week 1.
So what am I going to do this week? I think the answer is obvious: I'm picking against the Dolphins. However, I would like to note that I'm not just doing it out of spite at this point. The biggest problem for the Dolphins is that their defense is getting rolled every week. Through three weeks, the Dolphins are surrendering an average of 413.7 yards per game, which is the second-most in the NFL. You can throw the ball on them, you can run the ball on them and the Bengals will likely do both.
Not only is this a prime-time home game for the Bengals, but it's also going to mark the debut of the white tiger helmets and I can't pick against a team wearing white tiger helmets, especially when those helmets are awesome.
At this point, I don't even think Dolphins fans want me to pick their team to win. Every time I pick them to lose, they win. I'm not sure what that means for Thursday, but we're going to find out.
The pick: Bengals 34-27 over Dolphins
Jacksonville (2-1) at Philadelphia (3-0)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Welcome to the Doug Pederson revenge game. If you don't remember the end of the Pederson era in Philadelphia, let me give you a quick refresher: After a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the Eagles fired Pederson in a move where they basically chose Carson Wentz over him.
It was an insane decision at the time, but somehow, the move has ended up working out for everyone involved not named Carson Wentz. The Eagles now have a new franchise QB in Jalen Hurts, and overall, they're much better than they were two years ago. As for Pederson, he landed on his feet in Jacksonville and he's already working miracles there. I mean, the man has only been the Jaguars coach for three regular season games and he already has as many wins as Urban Meyer.
Doug Pederson has tied Urban Meyer for fifth all time in most wins by a Jaguars coach.— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) September 25, 2022
If Pederson wants to top Meyer this week, that means the Jaguars would have to upset the Eagles, which would give them a three-game winning streak and I'm not sure we should be rooting for that because Jacksonville winning three games in a row is one of the first signs that an apocalypse is coming. I can't even remember the last time they've won three straight games. Have they ever won three straight games?
My crack research team, which is actually just me using Google, has advised me that the Jaguars have in fact won three straight games before with the most recent instance coming in 2017. However, two of those three wins came at home. The last time they had a three-game winning streak where at least two of the wins came on the road was in 2013 and that's what they could do this year.
Speaking of the road, the Jaguars have pretty much been a total disaster every time they've left Jacksonville over the past few years. In their past 19 road games, they're 1-18, but that one win did come under Pederson.
I have to think Pederson is going to do everything possible to win on Sunday, which means this is definitely going to be a refrigerator game for him (That's where you pretend to throw the kitchen sink at your opponent, but then throw a refrigerator instead). The Eagles won't know what's coming and they'll never know what hit them.
The pick: Jaguars 27-24 over Eagles
Buffalo (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Whatever the Ravens were planning to pay Lamar Jackson in his next contract extension, they might want to go ahead and double it. Instead of signing a new deal with the Ravens over the offseason, Jackson decided to bet on himself and so far, this bet is going better than almost any bet that's ever been made in human history.
Jackson has been so good this year that he's actually gotten off to a better start than he did back in 2019 when he was voted MVP. The guy who supposedly can't throw the ball not only leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 10, but he also has the highest QB rating in the NFL. For most quarterbacks, that's impressive enough, but Jackson is also the fifth-leading rusher in the entire NFL and he's accounted for more total touchdowns (12) than 30 of the NFL's 32 teams.
I'm not sure how the Ravens will fit it under the salary cap, but I'm starting to think a 10-year, $987 million contract isn't completely out of the question for Jackson.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, although Jackson has been great this year, their defense has been the opposite of great. Through three weeks, the Ravens are surrendering an average of 353.3 passing yards per game, which is an insanely high number when you consider that NO OTHER TEAM in the NFL is even surrendering 300 yards per game. The ugly part about those numbers is that it's not like the Ravens have faced a murderer's row of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks: They've faced Mac Jones, Joe Flacco and Tua Tagovailoa, and they're still getting diced up.
The problem with this is that the Ravens now have to face the quarterback who currently leads the NFL in passing yards: Josh Allen. Allen is the only QB in the NFL who has gone over 1,000 passing yards through three games this year, and based on how the Ravens are playing, Allen might top 1,000 yards in Week 4 alone.
At this point, I think the only way the Ravens can slow Allen down is if they put Lamar Jackson on defense, but that might be too much to ask.
The pick: Bills 37-30 over Ravens
Kansas City (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
When Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady faced off against each other in the 2018 AFC title game, I thought that might be the last time we saw them play, but I was wrong. I then thought the same thing in 2019, 2020 and 2021. And even though I've been wrong every year, I'm going to say it again: Guys, you better enjoy this game because it might be the final time we see Brady take on Mahomes.
That being said, if this game goes anything like Brady's showdown with Aaron Rodgers last week, it might end up putting you to sleep. That game somehow had almost zero offense even though it involved two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
I hope this week's game goes better for both Mahomes and Brady, because I'm not sure I have the patience to sit through another offensive dud. I also hope this game goes better for the Buccaneers' JumboTron operator, because he apparently showed something on the big screen in Week 3 that gave away a vital piece of information.
Rodgers is convinced that the JumboTron showed a piece of information that helped the Packers win the game. The only explanation here that makes sense is that the Buccaneers' JumboTron operator is the same guy who Rodgers' gets his ayahuasca stash from. I mean, that would explain everything.
Anyway, I'm not sure how it happened, but this will somehow be the SIXTH time that Brady and Mahomes have played each other. Their last meeting came in Super Bowl LV in a game where the Buccaneers rolled to a win. A big reason the Bucs won is because they were able to harass Mahomes to the point where it became nearly impossible for the Chiefs to throw the ball. This time around, I don't think that's going to be an issue.
The Chiefs offense has a lot of new players and although it's still not firing on all cylinders yet, I do think it's more high-powered than the Buccaneers offense right now. If the Chiefs do win, the all-time series between Brady and Mahomes will be tied 3-3.
The pick: Chiefs 26-23 over Buccaneers
Minnesota (2-1) vs. New Orleans (1-2) in London
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Get your tea and crumpets ready because this Sunday marks the first week of the season where we'll be getting a game in London. I will probably be putting coffee grounds on my crumpets and mixing my tea with Red Bull because this game kicks off way earlier than I want my football kicking off.
The schedule says this game starts at 9:30 a.m. ET, but the official kickoff time for this game is actually 8:30 a.m. VT and if you're now wondering what VT is, it stands for "Viking Time." Apparently, at some point this week, Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell invented his own time zone.
Now, I'm not sure if O'Connell has ever been to London, but this sounds like the worst idea ever. There is a six-hour difference between London time and the time zone the Vikings are usually in. If they usually go to bed at 11 p.m. in Minnesota, that means they won't be going to bed until 5 a.m. in London. As the resident time zone expert here at CBSSports.com, I'm not sure this is the best path of action.
That being said, I'm not sure I like the Saints' plan, either. The Saints flew straight to London after their Week 3 game against the Panthers and they landed on Monday. As for the Vikings, they're not leaving until Thursday night, which means they won't be landing until Friday. One team is turning this into a week-long vacation and the other team is turning this into a 48-hour business trip.
I love a good vacation as much as anyone, but I think I'm going to take the team that's treating this like a business trip. I'm going to take the Vikings here, but I would like to point out that there's a 49% chance this pick will totally backfire due to the fact that O'Connell's crazy time zone plan will throw the Vikings off so badly that they sleepwalk through the entire first half and get outscored 21-3. I'm hoping that doesn't happen though, because I'm rolling with Minnesota here.
The pick: Vikings 24-17 over Saints
NFL Week 4 picks: All the rest
Browns 27-17 over Falcons
Steelers 20-16 over Jets
Lions 30-20 over Seahawks
Giants 19-16 over Bears
Titans 23-20 over Colts
Cowboys 20-17 over Commanders
Chargers 24-20 over Texans
Packers 24-13 over Patriots
Panthers 27-20 over Cardinals
Broncos 23-17 over Raiders
Rams 27-23 over 49ers
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Broncos would somehow win in Week 3 despite how badly their offense is playing and guess what happened? The Broncos won in Week 3 despite how badly their offense is playing. Now, did I know that Jimmy Garoppolo was going to completely lose his mind and give the Broncos two free points by stepping out of the back of the end zone for a safety? Of course I did. Look, he might be handsome, but even handsome people make mistakes sometimes.
Sure, the Broncos offense did almost nothing in the game, but Russell Wilson didn't safety himself, and sometimes, that's all that matters.
Worst pick: Last week, I spent roughly two paragraphs talking about how bad the Steelers offense is, and yet, for some reason, I still picked Pittsburgh to beat the Browns. My reasoning for picking the Steelers is that after watching their offense play over the first two weeks, I didn't think there was any way that it could actually get any worse in Week 3, but the joke was clearly on me, because it got worse. If you're wondering how bad things have gotten with the Steelers offense, we're reached the point where the players are apparently calling for the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
I'm not sure what rock bottom is for an offensive coordinator in the NFL, but this has to be close. On the other hand, I do know what rock bottom is for me and it was picking the Steelers to beat the Browns last week.
Straight up in Week 3: 6-10
SU overall: 24-23-1
Against the spread in Week 3: 6-9-1
ATS overall: 20-27-1
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably setting his clock to Viking Time because, really, if you thinking about it, we should all be living on Viking Time.