Tell you one thing: I did not expect to end up in Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season with an oversaturation of Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce in our lives. I'm not opposed to any of the T Swift-Kelce stuff, but it's pretty hard not to be at least a little skeptical when you see "Sunday Night Football" featuring either/or of the celebrity couple on at least every other commercial.
"New Heights" -- the Kelce Bros. wildly entertaining podcast -- is the No. 1 podcast in the entire world right now. Not just sports podcasts, but out of all pods. That NEVER happens with sports podcasts.
Travis is doing an outrageous number of commercials to the point he got called "Mr. Pfizer" by Aaron Rodgers earlier this week. Taylor has a movie about her tour coming out. And yet, I cannot be cynical about LOVE. On the other hand, we haven't seen much PDA, although they were spotted hanging on each other a bit after that Week 3 win in Kansas City at the postgame party.
ANYWHO ... we're just about a quarter of the way into the season and I'm not 100% sure we know all that much about the NFL. That's not unusual but it's worth noting -- we can genuinely classify four AFC teams (Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens) as legit playoffs contenders barring injury. Their talent level, plus how they've started, makes them feel like good postseason bets. The wild cards get spicy after that. My hot take is we end up with two AFC South teams in the postseason.
The NFC is a lot more straightforward so far: the Eagles and Cowboys are good and the 49ers are great. The Lions might be great too and their preseason price looks like a steal compared to current markets (-225). Everything else is a total tossup.
It's actually kind of wild how similar the two conferences are: two teams we liked from the East standing out, a dominant obvious team in the West rolling early, the North providing a somewhat surprising team out of the gate and the South being a hot mess where you wouldn't be surprised by anyone coming out.
Speaking of hot, my best bets remain pretty warm (12-9 on the season) so let's keep it rolling for Week 5. You can check out all of my picks at SportsLine and can see my full Week 5 picks here. I'll be putting them in early in the week when I can and you'll also get picks from other experts like R.J. White.
Now onto the football picks. Let's stay hot!
Falcons (-1.5) vs. Texans
Remember when the Bills were favored against the Dolphins last week and no one could figure out why? This is the same situation, albeit with a much less explosive offense. The Texans are a good football team, earlier than people expected. But the Falcons aren't trash, even if the results the last two weeks have been pretty bad. Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith are on the hot seat to a degree, with people wanting Taylor Heinicke and Smith's play-calling at least in question. I think they bounce back here in a surprising spot at home as favorites and the defense shows up in a big way while Ridder moves to 5-0 at home.
Lions (-9.5) vs. Panthers
This is a pure mismatch: the Lions built this team in the trenches. Their stout offensive line will nullify the Panthers' best defensive strength (the line). And the Lions defensive line will be a big-time problem for the Panthers offensive line. Home-field advantage isn't necessarily "a thing" the way it was in years past but Ford Field will be rocking with a bunch of Lions fans smelling blood in the water at 3-1 and wanting to see their team dominate at home fresh off a mini-bye and a butt-kicking of the Packers. Jared Goff is going to get Jameson Williams back earlier than expected, giving Detroit a vertical threat to go with the tough underneath weapons.
Bills (-5.5) vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville looked as good as they've looked all year against Atlanta in London last week. My concern here is the timing of the travel, with the Jaguars spending two weeks in London (albeit swapping resorts and stadiums, which does make somewhat of a difference?) and the Bills coming over on short rest. But the Bills are getting hot at the right time and I'm not sure they're going to be slowed down a ton by a Jaguars defense that is fine but not great. The Tottenham turf led to 48+ points both times last year so look for the over here too. And if the Jags and Bills get into a massive shootout I'm not sure the Jags can keep up.
Steelers (+4.5) vs. Ravens
Gross, gross, gross. The Steelers have been terrible, particularly on offense, thanks to Matt Canada. Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic (and friend of the Pick Six Pod) has one of the most unbelievable stats/streaks running:
Streak continues: Steelers have now gone 39 straight games under OC Matt Canada without gaining 400+ yards.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 2, 2023
During that span, other teams have gained 400+ yards 295 times - or 9.5 times per team.
Steelers had 225 yards today. They've been under 300 in 3 of 4 games this season.
If the Steelers don't gain 400 yards this week, they'll be FORTY GAMES without doing it. And maybe they hit that milestone. There's a chance this is a Mitch Trubisky-led team given the Kenny Pickett injury situation, although it appears Pickett is preparing to play. Regardless, Canada is under such insane fire, he has to basically unleash the kitchen sink in a massive home rivalry game. No one wants to back the Steelers here at all right now, the Ravens look much better, no doubt. But this is the AFC North's ugliest battle and it usually ends up inside three points, so I'm willing to take that gamble.
Patriots (-1.5) vs. Saints
More gross! The Pats look awful right now and Mac Jones was "benched" last week against the Cowboys. He wasn't really, though, and Bill Belichick can cook up a good enough defensive gameplan against a lifeless Saints offense where the Patriots will only need like 17 points to win the game. I'm banking somewhat on the Saints trotting out Derek Carr again this week. If they did it last week, why wouldn't they again in Week 5? Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes for 33 yards and Carr attempted 37 passes for 127 yards. The Buccaneers have a very good defense but if the Saints don't find something more, the Patriots will chokehold them like they did the Jets two weeks ago.
