As we predicted, Week 6 was certainly one of the more interesting and challenging weeks we have had so far this season. Nonetheless, we were able to go 9-5 against the spread, which is pretty good. I had a couple of nice calls like predicting the Atlanta Falcons would pull an upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos keeping it close with the New England Patriots, but I did have some misfires such as failing to see that the Green Bay Packers were facing quite a trap game against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Favorites went 5-9 against the spread last week, and I think we could see something similar happen in Week 7.
Below, I will give you my top five picks of the week, followed by the rest of the bunch for what should be a great Week 7.
All odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
Top five picks record: 17-13
Overall ATS record: 53-33-2
Who'll win and cover the spread in Week 7? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to make their best bets and break down every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Packers -3.5
The Packers' 38-10 loss to the Buccaneers was certainly eye-opening, and it not only marked Green Bay's first loss of the season, it also was the first time the Packers did not cover the spread. The Texans have certainly improved after the firing of Bill O'Brien, but have covered the spread just one time this season. Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread vs. teams with losing records and are 9-0 against the spread following their last nine against-the-spread losses. The Packers are going to rebound, and I'm actually surprised they aren't favored by more this week.
The pick: Packers 28-20
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Bills -13
I'm not sure how much I have to go into detail about this pick. The 0-6 Jets have yet to cover the spread this season and scored a total of zero points again the Miami Dolphins last week. Things appear to be going from bad to worse for Adam Gase, and the Bills are due for a solid bounce-back victory after losing their last two.
The pick: Bills 30-7
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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Browns -3
Remember how excited Browns fans were just a week ago today? They earned a 14-point win over the very tough Washington Football Team, trounced the Dallas Cowboys -- who are definitely known for their defense -- and then took down Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts! After those three incredible wins, there was no doubt they were going to give us a great game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? In the Browns' 38-7 loss last week, Baker Mayfield completed just 10 passes for 119 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and it appears he's "broken."
Baker Mayfield had one of the roughest 1st quarters I've ever seen against Pittsburgh. His process is totally broken right now and it led him to the third worst graded passing game of the season (32.7)
— seth galina (@pff_seth) October 21, 2020
Here is 138 seconds of bad QB play starting with the Minkah pick-6: pic.twitter.com/Rqw7PMwHxG
As for the Bengals, since failing to cover their season opener by one point, Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games. The Bengals also covered against the Browns earlier this season, so I'm just going to go ahead and take them again. Joe Burrow and Co. jumped out to a 21-0 lead against the Colts last week before their defense fell apart, and if they get off to another hot start, then they should at least cover.
The pick: Bengals 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Chargers -7.5
While things have been looking up for the Chargers since they appear to have their new franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, they actually haven't won a game since Week 1. This is an absolutely huge opportunity for them to register a statement win, and it's also worth noting that they are 4-1 against the spread. The Jaguars on the other hand have lost three out of their last four by double digits, and the other loss came by eight points to a one-win Bengals team. Things certainly have gone downhill for Gardner Minshew and Co. since their Week 1 win over the Colts, and I don't see it getting much better moving forward.
The pick: Chargers 27-17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread: Buccaneers -3.5
The Raiders may have had a bye week to prepare for this big matchup, but they are actually winless against the spread following their bye week over the last three seasons. Plus, the kind of win the Buccaneers registered over the undefeated Packers may have been even better than a week off. Brady thew two touchdowns and recorded a 104.9 rating last week, and has thrown eight touchdowns vs. zero interceptions in five career starts against the Raiders. Ronald Jones was also incredible with 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns and more importantly, the Buccaneers' defense returned to form. Tampa Bay's defense has really been the X-factor for this team so far. When that unit is on, it is one of the best defenses in the league and can completely shut down Aaron Rodgers. But when they're struggling, however, Nick Foles can beat them. With how Brady and the offense have been finding their footing, however, I'm more confident in this Buccaneers team than I have been all season.
The pick: Buccaneers 30-23
Other Week 6 picks
Eagles 21-20 over Giants (+4.5)
Cowboys (PICK) 24-21 over Washington
Steelers (+1) 34-27 over Titans
Saints (-7.5) 28-20 over Panthers
Lions (+2) 30-27 over Falcons
Seahawks (-3.5) 35-28 over Cardinals
Chiefs 26-21 over Broncos (+9.5)
49ers (+2) 28-22 over Patriots
Rams (-6) 27-20 over Bears
