NFL: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

There are some weeks when picking NFL games can destroy one's psyche.

Consider me destroyed.

For now. I am too resilient and too tough to stay down for long. But, man, was I bad last week.

I went 7-9 straight up, 5-10-1 against the spread in our expert picks and 1-5 with my Best Bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. That dropped my season records to 24-23-1 straight up, 22-25-1 ATS and 10-8 with my Best Bets.

The good start I had to start the season has been erased. That means it's time to get back on track.

Here's hoping for 65-percent winners this week. Can a man dream?

Miami Dolphins (+4) at Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

This is a tough spot for Miami. They are coming off a big, emotional division victory over the Bills and now must travel to play a good Bengals team on a short week. This could be Joe Burrow vs. Tua Tagovailoa, depending on Tagovailoa's health. These two met in college. I think at home on a short week Burrow will get the best of it — even if Tua plays. Bengals will win it with a nice offensive showing.

Pick: Bengals 30, Dolphins 20

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (In London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)

The Saints have major problems on offense right now, which is never a good thing. The Vikings rallied to beat the Lions, but they haven't looked the same on offense either. Where is Justin Jefferson? Plus Dalvin Cook could be out. This could be a low-scoring game, which I think the Saints will find a way to win.

Pick: Saints 21, Vikings 17

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+) 

The Falcons are back home after splitting two road games on the West Coast, losing to the Rams and beating Seattle last week. The offense looked good in that Seattle game, and I think it will carry over here. But can they stop the Browns? I don't think so. Cleveland will get a victory thanks to their running game and timely passing. 

Pick: Browns 27, Falcons 23

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+) 

The Bills are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough. But they are also coming off their first loss and have major injury issues. The Ravens have injury problems as well. Both quarterbacks are playing at an MVP level. So look for a lot of points as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson shoot it out. Look for the Bills to get the best of it and get back in the win column.

Pick: Bills 35, Ravens 30

Washington Commanders (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Washington was awful in all aspects of the game last week, but Dallas is playing on a short week. Even so, the big mismatch here is the Dallas defensive front against the Washington offensive line. That line was bad last week. It will be here as well. The Cowboys will win behind some turnovers forced by that line and a good ground game. 

Pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 16

Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Lions are coming off a loss in a game they should have won. Seattle has lost two straight and has looked bad doing so. The Seahawks defense is bad, while the Lions have been really good on offense. That will show up in this one as Detroit gets back in the win column.

Pick: Lions 33, Seahawks 20

Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Chargers are really banged up. They lost star tackle Rashawn Slater for the year and Joey Bosa is likely out with a groin. That's in addition to all the injuries they already had. The Texans have a chance to take advantage of that, but Davis Mills has really struggled the last two weeks. Something says he gets it going here. They hang around in this one. 

Pick: Chargers 26, Texans 24

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

This is a big early-season AFC South game. Both teams are coming off impressive home victories after terrible road losses. Both teams have also dealt with a lot of injury issues. Each team wants to run the ball with their star backs. So it will come down to who can do it? My pick is Jonathan Taylor gets it going more so than Derrick Henry. Colts win it. 

Pick: Colts 26, Titans 20

Chicago Bears (+3) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Both of these teams are 2-1, but is either any good? The Giants are playing on a short week, but being at home helps ease that burden. The Bears can run the football, but Justin Fields has been limited throwing it. The Giants will find a way to win a low-scoring game to get to 3-1. 

Pick: Giants 20, Bears 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is one of the best games of the weekend. Who could have imagined? Watching the Eagles offense against the Jaguars defense will be a treat. Can the Jaguars contain Jalen Hurts? It won't be easy. That's why I think the Eagles will find a way, but it's close. 

Pick: Eagles 28, Jaguars 24

New York Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Steelers will have been rested for 10 days as the Jets come to town. The Pittsburgh offense has struggled in a big way, but this could be the game it gets going. The Jets have issues on defense. Pittsburgh will win it as Mitch Trubisky quiets the Kenny Pickett talk. 

Pick: Steelers 24, Jets 17

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

The Panthers are coming off their first victory of the season, while Arizona did little on offense in a loss to the Rams at home. This has the makings of a low-scoring game with both offenses struggling. Look for the Carolina defense to get the best of Kyler Murray. The Panthers win a second game behind their defense and questions really intensify for the Cardinals brass. 

Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 20

New England Patriots (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Patriots will be without Mac Jones in this one, which means it's Brian Hoyer at quarterback. That's not a good thing against the Green Bay defense. The Packers are also back heathy on the offensive line, which will help get the passing game get going. I think that happens here. Packers big. 

Pick: Packers 27, Patriots 14

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a big early AFC West game, especially for the Raiders. At 0-3, they need a victory in the worst way. They have lost some tough games. The Broncos have played well on defense, but the offense has struggled. That's the difference here. The desperate Raiders will move the ball on that Denver defense to find a way to get their first victory. 

Pick: Raiders 28, Broncos 24

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

The Chiefs are playing consecutive road games as they come off a road loss at Indianapolis. The Bucs lost last week to the Packers in a game where they did little on offense. The Chiefs haven't been as good on offense this year as in recent years, and will be challenged by the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs, though, are too limited on offense to win this game. 

Pick: Chiefs 23, Bucs 17

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

The 49ers didn't do a lot on offense in losing to the Broncos last week, so there is a spotlight now on Jimmy Garoppolo. He has to be better. The Rams haven't looked right either, but they are 2-1 after beating the Cardinals. The 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams, which is a major hit. Look for the Rams to get the best of Garoppolo and the 49ers offense. Rams take it. 

Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 21