Going .500 when picking NFL games is not something to brag about. Some will take it, but I want more — a lot more.
Last week I went 8-6 with my expert picks against the spread, 7-7 straight up — hey picking this league is tough — and 3-3 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast.
That takes my records to 50-54-4 ATS, 57-50-1 straight up and 20-20 with my Best Bets. The early success I had this season has clearly leveled off.
It's time to have some winning weeks again. Maybe let's look at it this way: At least they weren't losing records. Right? Give me something. Anything?
Baltimore Ravens (+2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
The Bucs are floundering after losing two straight. The offense is a mess. The Ravens have improved on defense, but their passing game is struggling a bit. This is a game where Tom Brady and the Bucs get it going. Look for some deep shots for big plays as the Bucs get the best of the Ravens.
Pick: Bucs 27, Ravens 19
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) in London
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+)
These are two teams in need of a victory. The Jaguars have played better football than the Broncos so far, and they are used to playing in London. That's an advantage. This will come down to Trevor Lawrence against either Russell Wilson or Brett Rypien. Lawrence will get the best of it.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Broncos 17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is actually a big game in the NFC South since the teams in that division are so bad right now. The Falcons got dominated by the Bengals last week, while the Panthers beat the Bucs. Back home, look for Arthur Smith to get his team back on track. The Falcons take it as they limit a bad Carolina offense.
Pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 16
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Bears impressed in beating the Patriots, but this will be a big step up for their young offense facing the Dallas defense. The Cowboys will counter with a strong running game against a Chicago defense that struggles against the run. With the Bears on a short week and out on the road again, this will get ugly.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Bears 14
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Lions have come apart after a slow start with a bad defense being the main problem. Look for the Dolphins and their track-speed receivers to fly around against that defense as Tua Tagovailoa wins a shootout over the Lions. Miami rolls.
Pick: Dolphins 35, Lions 26
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Cardinals are coming off a Thursday victory over the Saints, while the Vikings are coming off a bye. The Arizona defense was better against the Saints, but this is a real challenge in the Vikings offense. Look for a lot of points here as the Vikings win with Kirk Cousins having a big day.
Pick: Vikings 31, Cardinals 28
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Raiders did some good things against the Texans last week, but facing the Saints on the road is a bigger challenge. New Orleans will have been rested after losing last Thursday and should have some injured players back. The Saints defense hasn't been good, but this is the game where they start to turn it around. Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 26, Raiders 20
New England Patriots (-1.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are playing on a short week and played awful in losing to the Bears on Monday night. The Jets are back home after winning two road games. But they have suffered some big injuries, including to rookie running back Breece Hall. That will matter down the road, but not here. The Jets defense will limit the Pats offense, no matter who plays quarterback. The Jets keep rolling.
Pick: Jets 24, Patriots 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-11)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The battle of Pennsylvania features a Steelers team playing a second straight road game against an Eagles team that is coming off a bye. That's a big edge for the Eagles. The Philadelphia attack is a tough one to prepare for on a short week having played Sunday night. Give me the Eagles to win easily.
Pick: Eagles 30, Steelers 17
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans have taken command of the AFC South as they head to Houston to play the Texans. Houston has showed some improvement on offense with Davis Mills playing better. The Titans are coming off a big Colts victory, so a letdown of sorts could be in play. The Texans will hang around.
Pick: Titans 24, Texans 22
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is Taylor Heinicke against Sam Ehlinger. Bet you can't wait. The Colts will play Ehlinger the rest of the season with Matt Ryan being injured for now and also benched. Ehlinger can move around, which will help the Colts' bad offensive line. The Commanders have won two straight as their defense is playing better. I think they get the best of it here.
Pick: Commanders 23, Colts 22
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is a huge game in the division, especially for the Rams, who lost to the 49ers earlier this year. The Rams are coming off a bye, so they are rested. But the 49ers have the pass rush to disrupt the Rams' passing game. Kyle Shanahan has also had great success against the Rams and Sean McVay. That carries over here.
Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 21
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
This is a long trip for a second straight road game for the Giants. They are also banged up on the offensive line. The Seahawks can run it, while the Giants can't stop the run. Look for another big game from Kenneth Walker III as Seattle gets to 5-3 and stays atop the NFC West.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Giants 20
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
This game seemed to be a marquee matchup before the season, but the Packers are 3-4 and struggling. The Bills are coming off a bye and have looked great on offense this season. I don't think the Packers have any chance to keep up. Josh Allen gets the best of Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: Bills 37, Packers 20
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
If the Browns are to have any chance to win the division, they have to win this game. They just have had so many issues on defense, which is not a good thing against Joe Burrow and that Bengals' passing game the way they are throwing it around. They will keep it going as they beat the Browns.
Pick: Bengals 33, Browns 28
