The 2023 WNBA regular season will not come to a close until Sunday, but the playoff and lottery teams were finalized on Friday following the Chicago Sky's win over the Minnesota Lynx to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot and relegate the Los Angeles Sparks to the lottery. Joining the Sparks in the lottery are the Indiana Fever, Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm.
As a reminder, the WNBA calculates lottery odds based on the combined records of the past two seasons. That's great news for the Fever, who showed signs of improvement this season and are currently in 10th place, but will have the best lottery odds due to their disastrous 2022 campaign in which they won just five games. The Mercury, meanwhile, are stuck in last place, but will only have the second-best odds because they went 15-21 last season. Likewise, the Storm, who went 22-14 last season, will have the worst odds even though they are in 11th.
Here's a look at the lottery teams and their chances of winning the No. 1 overall pick. (Note: the final combined records will change based on remaining results, but the odds are locked in.)
| Team | Combined 2022 and 2023 record | Odds of winning No. 1 pick |
|---|---|---|
Indiana Fever | 17-58 | 44.20% |
Phoenix Mercury | 26-50 | 27.60% |
Los Angeles Sparks | 29-46 | 17.80% |
Seattle Storm | 33-42 | 10.40% |
The Fever are making their seventh consecutive lottery appearance, which is the longest such streak in the league. However, after winning the No. 1 overall pick for the first time in franchise history last year, which allowed them to select Aliyah Boston, they've shown real signs of improvement this summer. They've won more games than they did in 2021 and 2022 combined, and eight of the Fever's defeats were by five points or less. With another lottery pick added to the mix, they should have a bright future ahead.
There were some real highs for the Mercury this season. Brittney Griner, who missed all of 2022 while in Russian detention, returned home and was named an All-Star starter, and Diana Taurasi became the first player in WNBA history to reach 10,000 career points. However, the team was once again unlucky in regards to injuries, and Skylar Diggins-Smith never returned from maternity leave. The result was one of the worst seasons in franchise history, and the end of their 10-season playoff streak, which was the longest active in the league.
For the first time in franchise history, the Sparks have missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. They were beset by injuries and illnesses for the majority of the season, and despite a late surge that included a six-game winning streak, they just weren't able to overcome all of the adversity they faced. While they had hoped to return to the postseason under new head coach Curt Miller, the good news is they have the third-best lottery odds in one of the most anticipated draft classes ever and will be able to add a top talent to this veteran roster.
As expected, the Storm are in the lottery for the first time since 2016. That, of course, was the year they selected Breanna Stewart, and the superstar forward helped the team win two titles before departing for the New York Liberty in free agency last winter. Her departure, combined with Sue Bird's retirement, left the Storm short on talent, and try as Jewell Loyd might, she wasn't able to drag this team to the playoffs. The last two times the Storm were in the lottery, in 2015 and 2016, they won the No. 1 pick, but they'll need some serious luck to pull off that feat again this year.
The 2024 WNBA Draft is expected to feature one of the most talented classes of prospects we've ever seen, with the likes of Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Angel Reese, Cameron Brink and Aaliyah Edwards all eligible to turn pro. The option of taking an extra "COVID year" makes things a bit uncertain, but this will be a star-studded group even if a few of them return to school.
