The No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels aim to maintain a positive trajectory on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina hosts the Florida State Seminoles at Dean E. Smith Center in the ACC opener for both programs. UNC is coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, improving to 6-1 this season. FSU toppled Colorado earlier in the year, and the Seminoles are 4-2 overall.

Tipoff is at 2 p.m. ET in Chapel Hill. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Tar Heels as 12.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 158.5 in the latest Florida State vs. North Carolina odds. Before entering any North Carolina vs. Florida State picks, you'll want to see the predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 4 of the 2023-24 season on an 94-61 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It is also off to an 8-2 roll on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on UNC vs. FSU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the FSU vs. UNC game:

  • North Carolina vs. Florida State spread: UNC -12.5
  • North Carolina vs. Florida State over/under: 158.5 points
  • North Carolina vs. Florida State money line: UNC -878, FSU +582
  • FSU: The Seminoles are 4-2 against the spread this season
  • UNC: The Tar Heels are 4-3 against the spread this season
  • North Carolina vs. Florida State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Florida State can cover

Florida State is led by havoc creation from its defense. The Seminoles are forcing a turnover on more than 22% of possessions this season, ranking near the top of the nation. Florida State has a stellar 13.5% steal rate that is in the top 15 of the country, and opponents are also shooting only 25.6% from 3-point range against the Seminoles. The Seminoles are also blocking more than 11% of shots, using tremendous length and athleticism in the process. 

On the offensive side, Florida State is led by senior guard Darin Green Jr., who is leading the team with 14.5 points per game. Green Jr. is also shooting 38.1% from 3-point range and coming off a 21-point showing against Georgia. FSU is shooting 52.9% from 2-point range and 34.8% from 3-point range this season, and the Seminoles are averaging 15.7 assists per game. North Carolina also struggles to create turnovers, with below-average marks in steal rate (7.4%) and turnover creation rate (17.6%) this season. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why North Carolina can cover

North Carolina has one of the best players in the country in Armando Bacot. The veteran big man is a three-time All-ACC selection, and Bacot is averaging 16.7 points and 11.6 rebounds per game this season. Bacot is in the top five of the country in rebounding, and he is coming off a 22-point, 11-rebound effort against Tennessee in his last outing. Overall, UNC is one of the best teams in the country in dominating the possession game. Bacot leads the way in producing a 34.1% offensive rebound rate as a team, and the Tar Heels commit a turnover on fewer than 14% of possessions. North Carolina is also adept at using the free throw line, ranking near the top of the country in attempts (28.4 per game) and accuracy (76.9%). 

All told, the Tar Heels are averaging 87.4 points per game, and North Carolina is also stout on defense. The Tar Heels have a 74.8% defensive rebound rate in 2023-24, with North Carolina landing above the national average in free throw prevention, 3-point defense, and block rate. In addition, Florida State is shooting only 68.2% at the free throw line, yielding a major advantage to North Carolina in that key area. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make UNC vs. Florida State picks

The model has simulated FSU vs. North Carolina 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins North Carolina vs. FSU, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 94-61 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.