Every week, CBS Sports college football writer Tom Fornelli will make six picks for the upcoming weekend's college football games. He promises that these picks will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams.
It's Championship Week, which means my options are a bit limited. Yes, there are the random Big 12 -- seriously, Big 12, if you're going to have two games this week, have five instead -- and Sun Belt games to finish out the regular season, but the games everyone will be paying attention to are the conference championships.
So even though it goes against what I've been doing all season -- picking and choosing my spots (except for the Games of the Week) -- I'm limiting my five game picks to conference championships this week. It's not like there are a bunch of lines out there that I love and I'm ignoring, anyway.
As for how I did last week? Pretty well! I went 4-2 overall, nailing both Games of the Week as well as my Lock of the Week (now 11-2 on the season, thank you very much). I also hit last week's Hail Mary Parlay, which was four games instead of three for Thanksgiving. So, if you played it last week, you're welcome.
Games of the Week
No. 5 Michigan State (-3.5) vs. No. 4 Iowa: I'm not one of those people who has written off Iowa as a fluke. Unlike many of those who do, I've actually watched Iowa play this season. Quite a few times! It turns out that Iowa is actually a good football team.
It's just, as good as it is, I don't consider it to be an elite team. It's definitely benefited a bit by avoiding Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and even Penn State in the regular season. All that said, if Iowa wins this game, it'll be 13-0, and if you don't think going 13-0 in a Big Ten conference that currently has five teams ranked in the top 15, then that's your own twisted agenda.
But I really don't think Iowa is going to beat Michigan State.
Matchup wise, I just don't think Iowa's strengths counter Michigan State's weaknesses. Iowa's passing attack is efficient, but it's not lethal. It doesn't really have an amazing deep threat outside Tevaun Smith, and he's only catching 2.5 passes per game. Matt VandeBerg, Iowa's leading receiver, is much more of a possession, move the chains type.
I think if you're gonna beat Michigan State, you need to beat it deep. It's going to stop your run game, and I think the Spartans can stop Iowa's ground game. This won't be anything near a blowout, but I expect it to be a low-scoring slugfest in which the Spartans are never truly threatened. Michigan State 24, Iowa 17
No. 20 USC (+4.5) vs. No. 7 Stanford: I'm not very confident in this pick. Let me just get that off my chest right at the start. Honestly, I don't know what to expect. I do have a fun conspiracy theory about USC's ranking, however.
When the rankings first came out on Tuesday, I wasn't sure why the committee ranked USC so high, but I think I've figured it out now. For television purposes, having a game between two top 20 teams seems a lot more interesting than only one ranked team, or a team that's ranked No. 23 or No. 24 or something like that. Think about it. Of all the conference championships, this one may be the least "important."
The ACC has the No. 1 team in it, and if Clemson loses, there could be chaos.
The SEC title game could wreak havoc if Alabama loses.
The Big Ten game is essentially a College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
The AAC title game is a play-in to a New Year's Six Bowl.
The Pac-12? If Stanford loses, it doesn't affect much. If Stanford wins, it still needs a bunch of other things to happen to get to the playoff. The only reason I have it as a Game of the Week is because I needed the other games to fill out specific slots! So my theory is they're just trying to make the game more appealing to a national television audience. Prove me wrong, committee.
As for the game, I don't have the greatest reasoning for my pick other than history suggests its tough to beat the same team twice in a season. Stanford took down USC 41-31 earlier this year. I think it'll manage to do so again, but I just think it'll be closer this time around. Stanford 31, USC 28
Lock of the Week
No. 2 Alabama (-17.5) vs. No. 18 Florida: OK, so the entire world expects Alabama to win this game. I'm no different. What I did, though, was try to figure out why Florida was going to cover this spread.
You see, the line originally opened with Alabama as a 12.5-point favorite, and before you could say "Roll Tide," the line had climbed all the way to 17.5. So my thought process was that I want to go against the public here, but the truth is, the more I looked at this game, the less I could convince myself that Florida has a chance.
Have you seen Florida lately? It lost to Florida State 27-2 last week. Florida State is a similar team to Alabama, except Alabama is a bit more experienced, slightly more talented, and with a much stronger offensive line. I don't think Alabama is going to put up 40 points against this Florida defense, but I definitely don't think Florida's scoring more than 10. Alabama 27, Florida 6
Underdog of the Week
Northern Illinois (+12.5) vs. Bowling Green: I feel pretty confident about this one. In fact, it may have been the Lock of the Week had there been another underdog I was confident in. The Huskies have been underdogs three times this season, and they've covered all three times. And while Bowling Green has gone 9-3 this season against the spread, I just feel like this spread is too large.
Yes, Bowling Green is good, but this is a Northern Illinois team that's been one of the better MAC teams for years now and beat this same Bowling Green team 51-17 in this game last year (BGSU won by 20 the year before, but that was under Dave Clawson, not Dino Babers). I don't know that Northern Illinois beats the Falcons again, but it's not losing by more than 10 points. Bowling Green 38, Northern Illinois 30
| Pick Six Records | ||
| Category | Record | |
| Games of the Week | 15-11 | |
| Lock of the Week | 11-2 | |
| Underdog of the Week | 9-4 | |
| Over/Under of the Week | 7-6 | |
| Hail Mary Parlay | 3-10 | |
| Overall: | 45-33 | |
Over/Under of the Week
No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 10 North Carolina (Under 67.5): I am fading the public here. The general perception of these two teams is that they both have powerful offenses, and they like to go fast, particularly North Carolina. That's true. It's just, they both have good defenses, too. We can't ignore that. So after seeing this line open at 63 and quickly get bet up to 67.5 by a bunch of people pounding that over, I've decided to go the other way. There will be points, but not that many. Clemson 37, North Carolina 28
Hail Mary of the Week
Can we get two in a row? No harm in trying!
If you aren't familiar with the Hail Mary, here's how it works (or worked): During the regular season you would bet only one game at a time, but that's just not possible this week with so few games, and many going at the same time. So this week we're taking this as a straight parlay.
You have to bet all three games at once.
Here's this week's play.
Game One: No. 19 Houston vs. No. 21 Temple (Under 54.5) -->
Game Two: Arkansas State vs. Texas State (Over 70) -->
Game Three: Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5) vs. Troy
