Before we get into my selections for this Weekend Stockwatch, I'd like to touch briefly on some of my exclusions -- specifically, three starting pitchers whose weekend performances were nothing short of disastrous.
The first is Cole Ragans, whose stat line Saturday was about as bad as it gets:
His ERA is 4.32 now, but it was 1.93 going in. Three of his first four starts were absolute gems, measuring up to our wildest hopes for him. I don't even think this misstep was so much a matter of him facing a tough Orioles lineup. He just had one of those outings where a few softly hit balls landed in the right spots and then the bleeding wouldn't stop. It could happen to any pitcher, and it shouldn't change our evaluation of Ragans. Stock holds steady for me.
The next is Garrett Crochet, whose stat line Friday was nearly as bad as Ragans' Saturday:
The difference is that Crochet's previous outing was also shaky. He's now allowed a combined 12 earned runs in his past 7 2/3 innings, raising his ERA from 2.00 to 5.61. But his xFIP is still 2.91, his xERA is still 2.23, his strikeout numbers are still through the roof, and an ace outcome is still very much on the table. As with Ragans, I think I'd be doing you a disservice by saying stock down for Crochet.
Finally, there's Blake Snell, whose three starts have all looked much like the one he had Friday:
I'd come the closest to saying his stock has genuinely fallen because I do think he's unstartable right now even though you drafted him to be an integral part of our pitching staff, but he's a unique case in respects. The first is that he signed well into spring training and is likely still playing catch-up. The second is that he's followed the same pattern the last three years of performing miserably for the first several months and then dominating for the last several. Discarding him now, whether by trading or dropping, is about the most destructive thing you could do, so I wouldn't dare even insinuate it by including him among the stock down players.
At this point, anyone who has Elly De La Cruz is convinced he's his best player, and this weekend helped to solidify that thinking. Over a three-game series against the Angels, De La Cruz went 4 for 7 with a home run and three stolen bases, and if you're wondering why he had so few at-bats, it's because he also walked five times (while striking out only once). If we were re-drafting today, I'm fairly certain he'd be selected in Round 1, which is why your best response to his improved stock might be to sell him, provided you'd be getting a for-sure first-rounder in return. For as good as De La Cruz has been, his strikeout (30.9 percent) and ground-ball (58.1 percent) rates are still bloated, with the latter being even worse than last year. But surely this 21-game sample proves those ratios won't hold him back, right? Well, through 29 games last year, he was batting .328 with four homers, 16 steals and an .899 OPS, and we know how those numbers turned out.
| ||||||||||||
Jack Flaherty's 0-1 record and 4.44 ERA might suggest you're wasting your time with him, but Friday's effort was his third quality start in four chances. The start also served as the strongest validation yet that he's a changed pitcher in his first year with the Tigers, who introduced several mechanical tweaks to get him back to his former ace standing. His 29.1 percent strikeout rate is10th-best among qualifiers. His 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate is fourth-best. The whiff rate on his slider is 43.8 percent, and the whiff rate on his curveball is 54.8 percent. These numbers likely say more about how the rest of his season will go than his ERA does, and you should make every reasonable effort to roster him.
| ||||||||||||
Nestor Cortes has always been a tricky pitcher to evaluate because of the many ways he defies convention, so I can't say with great confidence that this latest outing -- which comes two turns after he shut out the Marlins over eight innings -- has him hurtling toward another season like 2022. But there's no denying he now has a 3.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, with a 2.78 xERA and 3.73 xFIP that are very much in line with his 2.70 and 3.63 marks from that special season. The trick will be whether he can keep the ball in the yard like he did then. The bottom line, though, is that Cortes clearly isn't someone you could consider dropping now, while before, I would have considered it defensible.
| ||||||||||||
Joel Payamps was the most popular pick to take over as Brewers closer after Devin Williams was lost to a back injury in spring training, but it was actually Abner Uribe who got the save on opening day and a total of three saves in the team's first four games. This usage seemed pretty conclusive, so Payamps was discarded in many of the leagues where he was drafted. It became clear something was amiss, though, when Uribe worked the seventh inning of a game on April 14, and he hasn't worked the ninth inning of a game since. Meanwhile, Payamps himself is up to three saves after recording his latest Sunday, and each of his past five appearances has come in the ninth inning. Sunday's save came just two days after he blew a save, which is perhaps the most compelling evidence of all that he's really the closer now.
| ||||||||||||
There's really no way I could leave out Travis d'Arnaud after his three-homer game Friday and four-homer weekend overall. He's been the Braves' primary catcher since Sean Murphy suffered an oblique injury on opening day, but the weekend served as a reminder of how much damage he can do in that role. He probably doesn't have another three-homer game in his future, but he makes plenty of hard contact and is bolstered by the lineup around him. Catcher is such a deep position that you may not need another alternative there, but d'Arnaud belongs in the conversation until Murphy is ready to return.
| ||||||||||||
After a breakthrough season at Triple-A and a strong showing last September, Wilyer Abreu seemed like he might be a player of interest going into spring training. But strikeouts got the better of him there and continued in his first couple weeks as a part-timer, which is why he entered the weekend batting .184. He's up to .280 after a 7-for-12 performance that included a home runs and two doubles, and the on-base skills he showed in the minors are even more evident now. He's looking like more of a base-stealer, too, having swiped four bags already. It all coincides with Tyler O'Neill landing on the concussion IL, but if it continues, the Red Sox shouldn't have trouble making room for Abreu, who is center field-capable, after O'Neill returns.
| ||||||||||||
It's been quite a few years since Miguel Sano was a player of interest in Fantasy, and nobody took him seriously when he won a spot on the Angels opening day roster. But he obviously took himself seriously, having shed 60 pounds in the offseason, and we're beginning to see the fruits of his labor now. Virtually no one in the league is hitting the ball harder than him, his average and max exit velocity both being 98th percentile or greater, such that even though he's striking out 30.9 percent of the time, his xBA is .294. It hasn't translated to big power production yet because he's been putting the ball on the ground too much, but a big performance this weekend has him batting .300. Playing time remains an issue, but he should at least be on your radar now even if it's not time to add him yet.
| ||||||||||||
With his second blown save in as many chances Saturday (and fourth overall), Adbert Alzolay has been removed from the closer role, and while it's thought to be only a temporary move to "give [him] some confidence," in the words of manager Craig Counsell, the Rangers had a similar plan for Jose Leclerc before seemingly moving on to Kirby Yates. Alzolay remains the top Cubs reliever to roster for now, but it could change quickly based on how this next week goes. Hector Neris and Mark Leiter would be the top bets to replace him.
| ||||||||||||
Coming off what was his best start of the season, Gavin Stone had arguably his worst, with the five walks standing out in particular. The fact I say "arguably" and not "certainly" is a pretty good indication of how his season is going, though. Things could improve still. He's backed by the Dodgers lineup, after all, and his 14.6 percent swinging-strike rate would rank in the top 10 among qualifiers. But the Dodgers rotation will be welcoming back Walker Buehler soon, with Bobby Miller likely not far behind. Stone will need to show improvement to keep his job. In the meantime, he's probably droppable in shallow leagues, particularly if someone like Jack Flaherty is still out there.
| ||||||||||||
If not for that 2022 season in which he went 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA, we probably wouldn't have made much of Martin Perez's 1.89 ERA through three starts. But he happened to line up for two starts coming off an eight-inning gem against the Tigers, which made it all too easy to hope for the best. Instead, we got two starts that reminded us exactly who he is, and I doubt we'll be making that mistake with him again.
| ||||||||||||
