It's a pretty remarkable stat that Trevor Lawrence has never lost a regular season game in high school or college. He went 34-2 as a three-year starter at Clemson, losing in the 2020 National Championship Game and the 2021 Sugar Bowl. He also lost two postseason games at Cartersville High School in Georgia. But his regular season record is unblemished -- for now.
Lawrence might lose a lot as a rookie for the Jaguars, who made him the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. While that could be frustrating for him and Jaguars fans, hopefully, he'll put up a lot of stats along the way. He has the chance to be a weekly Fantasy starter in all leagues, and you should consider him a sleeper this year.
Ideally, Lawrence plays as well as Justin Herbert did as a rookie in 2020 when he was the No. 9 Fantasy quarterback. It would even be OK if Lawrence played like Joe Burrow, who was last year's No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and Burrow scored at least 21 Fantasy points in four of his first eight games before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Week 11.
As you would expect, Lawrence was a star at Clemson. He averaged 252.5 passing yards per game in three seasons with 90 total passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He also might surprise you with his rushing ability, gaining 943 yards on the ground in college and 18 rushing touchdowns.
With the Jaguars, Lawrence has capable receivers in D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault to help him make plays, and Lawrence will definitely lean on his former teammate, Travis Etienne, as a weapon out of the backfield. Jacksonville also has a good brain trust to help Lawrence with head coach Urban Meyer, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and quarterbacks coach Brian Schottenheimer.
Lawrence will likely be drafted with a late-round pick in all seasonal Fantasy leagues as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. But if you want to draft Lawrence as a starter you can, just pair him with a proven backup like Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins or Matt Ryan. In case Lawrence falters, you'll still be OK.
Jamey's 2021 Sleepers 2.0 | Breakouts 2.0
I'm expecting Lawrence to be a star right away, and I'm counting on his dual-threat ability to help his Fantasy production. The Jaguars also could be chasing points on a weekly basis, and that should help Lawrence with his production.
He might lose a lot for the first time in his career. But Lawrence can definitely help Fantasy managers win a lot of games in 2021 as one of the best sleepers this season.
Now, let's look at some other players I have listed here in Sleepers 2.0.
Cousins will likely never get the respect he deserves in Fantasy and reality, but he ended up as a decent Fantasy starter in 2020, finishing as the No. 11 quarterback. And he has the chance to finish in that range again. Cousins has amazing skill players around him with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Irv Smith, and those guys helped Cousins score at least 21 Fantasy points in 11 games last year. He also got better as the season went on, averaging 27.0 Fantasy points per game in his final nine outings. If you like waiting on quarterbacks then Cousins is a great Fantasy option because he should be available in all leagues with a late-round pick.
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Remember when there was a report this offseason that Fitzpatrick was planning to retire? Thankfully, that didn't happen, and the 38-year-old signed with Washington in March. He has the chance to help Washington repeat as the NFC East champion, and he can help Fantasy managers win plenty of games as well if he can play like he did in Miami. In his past two seasons with the Dolphins, Fitzpatrick scored at least 20 Fantasy points in 12 of his past 14 starts. He has a quality receiving corps in Washington led by Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, and Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to take chances, which is why we love him. You'll only draft Fitzpatrick as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback with a late-round pick in the majority of leagues, but don't be surprised if you end up starting Fitzpatrick at some point this season. Fitzmagic is back, and we're glad he's still playing.
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Other sleeper quarterbacks to consider: Taysom Hill/Jameis Winston (whoever wins the job), Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa
Davis is a high-end sleeper because he could be drafted as early as Round 5, but he's someone to mention here in case this is the first thing you're reading about Fantasy Football for the 2021 campaign. As the NFL Draft unfolded, we kept waiting for the Falcons to address their backfield, but no running backs were added. That means, at the time of publication, Davis is Atlanta's starter, which makes him a No. 2 Fantasy running back to open the season. New coach Arthur Smith should help open up the Falcons' rushing attack, and Davis showed in 2020 he can be a reliable Fantasy option when he filled in for an injured Christian McCaffrey in Carolina and averaged 13.7 PPR points per game with more than 1,000 total yards, eight total touchdowns and 59 receptions. If Davis stays in the lead role for the Falcons then he's capable of replicating those stats again in 2021.
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It won't be hard for Carter to end up as the lead running back for the Jets this season, and he could emerge as a weekly Fantasy starter in all leagues. I'm looking to draft Carter as early as Round 6 in PPR and Round 7 in non-PPR leagues. He'll have to prove he's better than Tevin Coleman and Lamical Perine, and that should happen early in the year. While Carter doesn't profile as a lead running back at 5-foot-8, 201 pounds, he could be a nice surprise for the Jets and Fantasy managers. In college, Carter shared touches with Javonte Williams, but Carter still managed to rush 333 times for 2,248 yards and 12 touchdowns over the past two seasons, along with 46 catches for 421 yards and four touchdowns. He should lead all the Jets running backs in receptions, but he could also lead the team in all rushing categories. I'm excited to see what Carter can do if the Jets feature him in their backfield.
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I liked Moss as a sleeper last year after the Bills selected him in the third round from Utah, and I expected him to be better than Devin Singletary in 2020. When healthy, Moss had his moments, but he never proved to be the better running back in Buffalo. We'll see if that changes this year, and Moss should be healthy after hurting his ankle in the playoffs. Moss had eight games with double digits in touches as a rookie, and he scored at least 11 PPR points in four of them. He never had the chance at a consistent workload because of Singletary's presence, and the Bills were among the best teams throwing the ball last year. But I'm hopeful Moss can improve with a full training camp, and the Bills showed plenty of faith in Moss (and Singletary) by only adding Matt Breida this offseason for competition. Moss is worth drafting with a mid-round pick in all leagues.
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You're going to have to be patient if you draft Sermon with a mid-round pick in most seasonal leagues, but it could pay off if he gets an increased opportunity in his rookie campaign with the 49ers. Raheem Mostert will open the season ahead of Sermon on the depth chart, but San Francisco selecting Sermon in the third round of the NFL Draft should open some eyes. And with Jeff Wilson (knee) potentially out to open the season, Sermon could be the backup if he proves to be better than Wayne Gallman. Sermon should excel in the 49ers zone-blocking scheme, and he posted quality stats at Ohio State last season with 116 carries for 870 yards and four touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 95 yards in eight games. Mostert was limited to eight games last year due to injury, and we don't know when Wilson will be ready. If Sermon gets the chance to be featured in San Francisco in 2021 then he could emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues.
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Other sleeper running backs to consider: Darrell Henderson, Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris, Tony Pollard
Boyd is going to be drafted as the third Bengals receiver this season in all Fantasy leagues, and that makes sense given the potential of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But don't forget about Boyd, who should be locked into the slot role for Joe Burrow. Last year, when Burrow (knee) was healthy, Boyd scored at least 16 PPR points in six of the 10 games when both were on the field. He also had at least eight targets in eight of those games. The Bengals should be among the league leaders in passing attempts and passing yards, and that bodes well for Chase, Higgins and Boyd. There's a chance all three gain more than 1,000 yards, and Boyd has three years in a row with at least 76 catches coming into 2021. You can likely draft Boyd after Round 7 in PPR formats, but he could easily be a weekly starter, even in a crowded receiving corps.
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The Jaguars made some significant changes this offseason with a new coach (Meyer), quarterback (Lawrence), running back (Etienne) and receiver (Marvin Jones). But Shenault should be one of the top three receivers in Jacksonville behind Jones and Chark, and I'm excited to draft Shenault with a late-round pick in all leagues. Bevell, the new offensive coordinator, should be creative in getting Shenault the ball, and he closed last season on a high note with at least 15 PPR points in three of his final five games. Hopefully, that becomes the norm for him in his sophomore campaign, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Shenault have better stats than Chark or Jones. Shenault could emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues by the end of the season.
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You can argue that Smith is a breakout candidate in his rookie campaign, but I'm going to put him here since he will likely be drafted after Round 7 in most seasonal leagues. That could end up being a tremendous steal. Smith, as you're likely aware, was a star at Alabama while winning the Heisman Trophy last year with 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns on 148 targets. He finished his career at Alabama with the most receiving yards (3,965) and touchdown catches (46) in SEC history. While his size (6-foot, 166 pounds) will be an issue until he proves otherwise, he landed in a great situation with the Eagles, who should feed him targets. Smith could be the top rookie receiver this year and a standout Fantasy option in all leagues.
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Jerry Jeudy's rookie season in 2020 didn't go as planned after the Broncos made him the No. 15 overall selection in the NFL Draft. The positives were he had 110 targets, and he finished with 52 catches for 856 yards and three touchdowns. But he also had 12 drops, which were second to only Diontae Johnson (14) in 2020. Jeudy must improve in that category, and he's saying all the right things this offseason. We'll see who starts at quarterback for Denver between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, and there's still an outside chance the Broncos trade for Aaron Rodgers. If that move happens then Jeudy's Fantasy value would skyrocket, but he's still in a crowded receiving corps with a healthy Courtland Sutton (knee), Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick. Still, Jeudy has star potential -- if he can hold onto the ball. It's worth the gamble to trust him again with a mid-round pick in all leagues.
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Other sleeper wide receivers to consider: Darnell Mooney, Mecole Hardman, Rondale Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Kmet isn't going to be a tight end to target as a starter on Draft Day in the majority of leagues, but he could emerge as a starting option as the season goes on. I'm hopeful either Justin Fields or Andy Dalton will lean on Kmet as a top target, even with quality weapons on the Bears like Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen. As a rookie in 2020, Kmet had at least seven targets in three of his final five games, and he averaged 10.3 PPR points over that span. I'm expecting him to do better than that in his sophomore season, and hopefully Kmet can be a reliable Fantasy option in 2021. Kmet is a great late-round target in all leagues if you can afford to carry two tight ends on your roster.
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I'm bullish on Trautman, and I plan to draft him as a starter in all leagues. He's stepping into a starting role with Jared Cook gone, and Trautman could become a significant weapon for whoever starts at quarterback for the Saints this year between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. In two seasons with the Saints, Cook had 16 touchdowns in 29 games. And over the past two seasons, the Saints tight ends have 21 touchdowns as a group. Trautman could emerge as a weekly Fantasy starter during the season if Sean Payton features him in the offense as a viable weapon in the passing game behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.
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Other sleeper tight ends to consider: Blake Jarwin, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
