It has not been a great season for streaming quarterbacks. In fact, it's been pretty awful. But twice Tua Tagovailoa has come through for us, and we're expecting he'll make it a third in Week 11. So much so, that I'm comfortable starting him over Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts. But that isn't all about Tagovailoa.
For Wilson and Hurts, it's pretty easy to see why. Volume concerns. Wilson's Seahawks are running a league-worst 56 plays per game and they've been run-heavy to boot. Speaking of run-heavy, Hurts hasn't attempted even 25 passes in a game since Week 7 and he's only topped 30 attempts once since Week 5.
Rodgers is a bit more complicated. He has had three pretty bad games this season. The miserable game against the Saints in Week 1, the game he played without Davante Adams, and his return last week. While it's easy to make excuses for those bad games, it's also true that he has more bad weeks than top-six weeks this season.
There are adjustments made throughout the week and I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers moves up a few spots by the end of the week. But people making waiver claims can't wait too long. And waivers are pretty complicated.
Cam Newton is projected at 17th and won't likely rank inside my top-12 quarterbacks this week. But in most situations he'd be my favorite quarterback to add, especially if Tagovailoa is already rostered. Because if Cam looks good this week, you may just have yourself a must-start quarterback, I still believe he has that kind of upside.
Let's get to the rest of the Week 11 preview:
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Week 11 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 18 -- Jalen Hurts pass attempts per game the past three weeks.
- 23.3 -- Tua Tagovailoa has averaged 23.3 FPPG in his four complete games.
- 5 -- Ryan Tannehill has five rush attempts inside the 5-yard line. Among QBs, only Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have more.
- 26 -- Justin Fields has 26 rush attempts in his past three games. If he has success against Baltimore, we may be looking at an emerging top-12 QB.
- 11.7 -- The Bills are allowing 11.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. That's 20% better than any other defense.
- 19.9% -- Nearly a fifth of Baker Mayfield's throws have been graded bad throws by Pro Football Reference, the highest mark for an active non-rookie this season.
- 6.1% -- Mike White has been intercepted on more than six percent of his pass attempts. No matter who starts for the Jets, you should start the Dolphins defense.
- 0 -- Russell Wilson's Seahawks were shut out for the first time in his career as a starter.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Cam Newton QB
CAR Carolina • #1
Age: 34 • Experience: 12 yrs.
Looking at the numbers, Newton's next matchups are very favorable. He's surrounded by a good cast and he has a coaching staff creative enough to maximize his skills. There's plenty of risk, but it doesn't outweigh the upside.
I do prefer Tagovailoa over Newton just for this week, but I don't believe he has the same upside and I'm probably not starting him next week against Carolina, so it's more of a one-game stream situation.
There's a pretty big drop-off for me after Tagovailoa and Newton. Garoppolo has a Newton-esque projection this week without any of the long-term upside. But I would rather start Garoppolo than Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz.
CHI Chicago • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Fields was the No. 3 QB in Fantasy scoring in Weeks 8-9, so it's possible he's turned the corner. As you can see from the projections below, I want to see one more week before I buy in. But I do want him on my roster.
BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Yes, Week 10 was gross, but I wouldn't expect a repeat. I have Jackson and Josh Allen very close in the projections, so the price difference is what makes the difference. Plus, it's easier to stack a Ravens defense because the opponents might actually have some success.
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