Earlier this week I wrote in this space that I didn't want to start Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson. That hasn't changed. They're all in terrible spots against great defenses and learning to adjust without the elite weapons they've had in the past. One guy I am starting, albeit with reservations, is Tua Tagovailoa against the Buffalo Bills.
My reservations at this point are pretty heavily influenced by his opponent. The Bills have arguably looked like the best defense in the NFL, and in the past Tagovailoa hasn't been someone we start against an average defense, much less a great one. But in the past he hasn't had Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle on his side.
This early in the season the only way I adjust for opponent is by what they do to the implied point total of an offense. For example, the Dolphins have an implied total of 23.25 as of Thursday afternoon. Brady's Buccaneers (21.5), Rodgers' Packers (20.5), and Wilson's Broncos (21.75) are all lower.
As we already discussed, Tagovailoa has the clear edge in weaponry and the Vegas lines suggest his team will score more points as well. If he actually pulls it off and posts a top-12 week against this defense, we won't be doubting him as a Fantasy starter any longer. Just don't take the opposite to be true. If the Dolphins struggle against Buffalo, we can't really take much from it. Everyone has so far.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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2 -- Russell Wilson has just two passing touchdowns through Week 2 -- the only two touchdowns the Broncos have scored.
32.8 -- Fantasy points per game for Carson Wentz, which ranks fifth among all quarterbacks.
24 -- Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense is ranked 24th in the league in first down pass rate. Last year, the Bucs had the second highest pass rate.
8 -- Eight straight games for Josh Allen versus the Dolphins with at least two passing touchdowns.
.88 -- Kyler Murray's touchdown-to-interception ratio in seven career games versus the Rams. In last year's playoff loss, Murray was 4-12 for 22 yards and one interception while under pressure.
It's a pretty terrible week at quarterback, but Mariota's rushing ability and good matchup make him a borderline start against Seattle. He's a better option in leagues that only reward four points per pass touchdown because it would be very surprising if he throws more than two. But he could run for another as well.
Fields' start to the season hasn't been inspiring, but he's faced the 49ers defense in terrible weather and a very good Packers' defense coming off a bye. He faces the Houston Texans in Week 3, which is a challenge he should be up to.
Trubisky and the Steelers face a mediocre Jets defense in Week 4. That defense made Jacoby Brissett look competent in Week 2. If you prefer to bet against Trubisky surviving Thursday Night Football, then stash Kenny Pickett.
Hurts is QB3 on the season in FanDuel scoring and he's only thrown one passing touchdown. We still haven't seen his weekly upside and the Washington defense is arguably the worst he's faced this season. There's a week coming soon when he tops 400 total yards and produces four touchdowns. He's going to win a lot of people money that week.
Two things are true about Kirk Cousins. He's almost always terrible in primetime and he almost always destroys the Lions. Hopefully his most recent disappointment under the bright lights will hold down his roster rate this week.
