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USATSI

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Jonathan Taylor). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.  

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Thu, Sep 29 at 8:15 pm ET •
CIN -4, O/U 47
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIA Miami • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CIN CIN -4 O/U 47
OPP VS QB
3rd
PROJ PTS
19.2
QB RNK
11th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
925
RUYDS
1
TD
8
INT
2
FPTS/G
27

Dave's Notebook:

  • MIAMI: Offense played just 43 snaps last week, should be more rested than a typical offense playing on Thursday. That includes Tagovailoa, who didn't practice much this week with ankle and back injuries. 
  • MIAMI: Because the Dolphins defense played 92 snaps, the onus might be on the offense to control the clock and play at a slow pace. However, per TRU Media, they're already the third-slowest in seconds between plays.
  • TAGOVAILOA: Has struggled against blitzes (higher completion rate, yards per attempt, TD rate, QB rating vs. non-blitzes) and has been less efficient versus zone coverages (higher completion rate, yards per attempt, TD rate, QB rating vs. man coverages).
  • BENGALS: Have played the eighth-least zone coverage, but this is their first matchup against a potent passing offense. They're expected to play more zone. The Bengals have also blitzed less week over week, and with defensive tackle D.J. Reader out for a while, their blitz rate may fall below 20% for the first time this season. The more the Bengals play zone and not blitz, the worse things get for Tagovailoa. 
  • BENGALS: Have seen the second-most pass attempts of 20-plus Air Yards (15) to wide receivers this season, but only four have been completed and only one for more than 30 yards. The 26.7% catch rate allowed is sixth-best. The Bengals also lead the league in fewest YAC/rec (Yards After Catch per reception) allowed to receivers (1.61). 
  • BENGALS: Have not allowed more than 15 Fantasy points to a quarterback through three games. But, they've played Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco.
  • DECISION: Tagovailoa has obvious upside given the speed of his receiving corps, but the Bengals have handled all comers so far with good results. You're OK starting him ahead of passers with lower upside (Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota, Trevor Lawrence) but anyone who can barrel home 23-plus Fantasy points, including Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, is a safer choice.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 9:30 am ET •
NO +3, O/U 43.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIN Minnesota • #8
Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NO MIN -3 O/U 43.5
OPP VS QB
9th
PROJ PTS
19.1
QB RNK
7th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
758
RUYDS
19
TD
5
INT
3
FPTS/G
18.7
New Orleans' pass defense has been strong for a while now -- only five stationary quarterbacks like Cousins posted 20-plus Fantasy points on them in 2021 and none yet in 2022. When defenses have schemed to take Justin Jefferson away over the past two weeks, Cousins' numbers have been soft. Because it's not certain how the Saints will play the Vikings, I think Cousins' ceiling is close to what he's given you in Weeks 1 and 3, which is about 23 Fantasy points. That qualifies him as a starter on the same level as Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, and ahead of Tua Tagovailoa and Carson Wentz.

Dave's Notebook:

  • COUSINS: Struggled mightily with man coverage so far this year (-0.40 EPA/dropback, 42.2% completion rate), and outside of a terrific TD rate (10%!) has been equally bad when blitzed (-0.29 EPA/dropback, 42.5% completion rate). He's been blitzed on one-third of his dropbacks and seen man coverage on one-third of his dropbacks (and both blitzed and versus man coverage on 21% of his dropbacks). 
  • COUSINS: Has to get rid of the ball faster -- the Lions sacked him once but forced 10 incompletions on 14 pressures. 
  • VIKINGS: Have surprisingly allowed a pass rush pressure on 35.5% of Cousins' dropbacks -- including 34.1% last week against the Lions. 
  • SAINTS: Finally generated pass rush pressure (32.1% of snaps) and dialed up more blitzes (39.3%) in Week 3 against the Panthers. 
  • SAINTS: Played the least amount of zone coverage last week (50.8%) since the start of 2021. They usually play more zone but they've been getting more comfortable with man coverage over the past two weeks. 
  • SAINTS: No QB has 20-plus Fantasy points against them this year, but the defense has faced Mariota, Brady without top receivers and Mayfield.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIN Minnesota • #19
Age: 32 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NO MIN -3 O/U 43.5
OPP VS WR
8th
PROJ PTS
11.8
WR RNK
35th
YTD Stats
REC
13
TAR
19
REYDS
149
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.3
Thielen is still a touchdown-needy receiver, but with four red-zone targets in his past five quarters, he remains a reliable guy Cousins will look for. Plus you should be encouraged by his Week 3 usage. I'd start him in PPR over Brandin Cooks and Brandon Aiyuk, both of whom have tough matchups and suspect quarterbacks.

Dave's Notebook:

  • THIELEN: After closing Week 2 strong, Thielen landed a 21.6% target share and cashed in an 8-61-1 stat line against Detroit. 
  • SAINTS: Have allowed an impressive 61.5% catch rate to opposing receivers, especially since they've seen the sixth-most targets through three weeks, but they're allowing 14.3 yards per catch and an egregious 6.25 YAC/rec (that's third worst). 
  • SAINTS: If the Saints opt to play a lot of man coverage, which they might, considering the Eagles and Lions had some success with it against Minnesota, it's assumed Thielen will draw lighter coverage than Justin Jefferson. Thielen is efficient versus both man and zone but better against man.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NO New Orleans • #12
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs MIN MIN -3.5 O/U 41.5
OPP VS WR
18th
PROJ PTS
14
WR RNK
25th
YTD Stats
REC
17
TAR
29
REYDS
268
TD
0
FPTS/G
14.6
Olave is in line to potentially lead the Saints in targets, and the matchup suggests he should do better that he has been on shorter throws. And while Dalton might not chuck it like Winston, he is sure to try at least a few deep balls in Olave's direction. I really like Olave as a safe PPR flex with upside to still finish as a top-20 receiver. He has less upside in non-PPR but I'd start him in that format and PPR over Garrett Wilson, Brandin Cooks and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SAINTS: Michael Thomas has been ruled out and Jameis Winston is doubtful. Andy Dalton is expected to start for the Saints. Dalton has long been considered to be a safe passer who doesn't like to take chances. Last year with the Bears he completed 63% of his throws for 6.42 yards per attempt. His average throw depth was 6.96 yards his deep (20-plus yards) pass attempt rate was 7.2%.
  • OLAVE: Has been sensational in his past two games, but the quarterback change will likely mean fewer deep opportunities. With Winston, Olave has caught 13 of 18 targets for 110 yards on passes that traveled 15 or fewer Air Yards. That obviously doesn't make for a great receiving average, nor has Olave helped with his 2.08 YAC/rec average on those throws (which have mostly been screens and short hitch routes).
  • VIKINGS: On the year, Minnesota has allowed a 72.1% catch rate (third-worst) to wide receivers. That number balloons to 88.1% (league-worst) on passes that traveled 15 or fewer Air Yards, and they've allowed fifth-most yards per catch (10.76) and the seventh-most YAC/reception (5.32) on those short grabs. That lends some optimism.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
ATL +1.5, O/U 49.5
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CLE Cleveland • #27
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ ATL CLE -1.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS RB
6th
PROJ PTS
12.4
RB RNK
31st
YTD Stats
RUYDS
151
REC
9
REYDS
54
TD
2
FPTS/G
13.8
Hunt seems like a safe bet for 15 touches, and he has scoring potential thanks to his usage near the goal-line. But the usage and the matchup favor Chubb, which you probably could have guessed. I'd sit Hunt for the upside of Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard and Cam Akers, but I'd still chance it with Hunt ahead of Chase Edmonds, Melvin Gordon, and, in PPR, J.K. Dobbins.

Dave's Notebook:

  • HUNT: Exactly 15 touches in each game this year. Has averaged 4.2 yards per run and 6.0 yards per catch, both of which are lower for him compared to his career totals. He totaled at least 60 yards per game. 
  • HUNT: Had five touches inside of 10 yards compared to six for Chubb. Chubb has scored more often, including in Week 3 when Hunt had three straight goal-to-go carries and couldn't score, but Chubb did on a fourth-down try. 
  • FALCONS: Allowing 4.49 yards per carry so far this season (a little above league-average), and no running back has more than 10 PPR or non-PPR points against them, but they haven't exactly been tested. Of the 59 carries they've seen, only three have come from inside of 10 yards.
  • FALCONS: Seem especially deficient against runs to the edge (7.24 yards per carry allowed) compared to runs up the middle (4.22), and they've allowed much fewer yards before and after contact on edge runs compared to between the tackles. 
  • HUNT: Averaging 3.86 yards per carry on edge runs; Chubb is averaging 4.92. Chubb's better than Hunt on between-the-tackle runs, but both are north of 4.40 yards per carry.  
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CLE Cleveland • #85
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ ATL CLE -1.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS TE
31st
PROJ PTS
11.5
TE RNK
11th
YTD Stats
REC
13
TAR
16
REYDS
128
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.6
Njoku has emerged as an easy short-area outlet for Brissett thanks to his size to out-muscle smaller defenders and quickness to buy a little space from slower defenders. The Falcons, like any team, will be far more worried about stopping the Browns run game and Amari Cooper, so I would expect Njoku to keep seeing targets from Brissett, who has played well lately (74.1% completion rate is fourth-best in the past two weeks). He's worth starting in PPR ahead of T.J. Hockenson, Logan Thomas and Gerald Everett.

Dave's Notebook:

  • NJOKU: Became a factor in Week 3 picking up a bunch of short-range targets from Jacoby Brissett. Only one target, and only two of his 27 routes, went beyond 10 yards downfield last week. 
  • NJOKU: Seemed to be more involved against Cover-2 and Cover-3 style defenses recently. Last week, 9 of 10 targets came against those specific coverages, and the week before he had two efficient catches against Cover-3. Both types of defense are designed to eliminate the big play while still fighting the run, which is perfect for a short-area outlet like Njoku. 
  • FALCONS: Lead the NFL in Cover-2 snaps played through three weeks (23.8%), and are just below league average in Cover-3 snaps played (32.8%).  
  • FALCONS: Rank bottom-five in catch rate allowed (78.3%) and receiving yards allowed (219) to tight ends. Also rank bottom-10 in yards per catch (12.17) and first-down receptions allowed (nine) to tight ends.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
BAL +3, O/U 51.5
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BUF Buffalo • #88
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BAL BUF -3 O/U 51.5
OPP VS TE
18th
PROJ PTS
8.1
TE RNK
20th
YTD Stats
REC
9
TAR
11
REYDS
71
TD
0
FPTS/G
5.4
Knox is definitely due for a touchdown, but it's pretty much the only reason why you'd even think about starting him. That said, the matchup is juicy enough that he would warrant a nod ahead of Gerald Everett and Irv Smith. If Knox can't get it done here, he can be dropped.

Dave's Notebook:

  • RAVENS: Have allowed an 82.4% catch rate (third highest) and two TDs to tight ends through three games. Quarterbacks have earned a 158.0 QB rating when targeting tight ends against Baltimore. 
  • KNOX: It's discouraging that in a game when Josh Allen was dinking and dunking for most of his 63 pass attempts last week that Knox saw just four targets. Knox played 71% of all snaps, but 68% of all pass snaps.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BUF Buffalo • #26
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BAL BUF -3 O/U 51
OPP VS RB
28th
PROJ PTS
9.7
RB RNK
34th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
80
REC
13
REYDS
94
TD
1
FPTS/G
12.1
No one should expect Singletary to suddenly morph into a pass-catching phenom for the Bills, including this week against a muted Ravens pass rush. Expect Josh Allen to throw further downfield, making Singletary a touchdown-needy running back. I'd rather start Melvin Gordon, A.J. Dillon, and in full PPR, J.D. McKissic.

Dave's Notebook:

  • BILLS: Between the heat and the matchup, the Buffalo offensive line allowed a pressure on 45.1% of their snaps, more than double what they averaged in their first two games combined. That helped Singletary's crazy-high target rate last week. Of Singletary's nine catches, only two seemed like designed throws (including his touchdown versus man coverage). 
  • RAVENS: Rank 24th in pass rush pressure rate (28.8% of snaps) and 20th in blitz per dropback rate (23.5%). They don't attack quarterbacks quite like they used to.
  • RAVENS: Their defensive breakdowns tend to happen further downfield against receivers and tight ends; as far as defending running backs through the air, Baltimore is a little better than league-average in catch rate and yards per catch allowed to running backs and top-10 in YAC/reception to runners.
  • SINGLETARY: Had 10 or fewer touches in Weeks 1 and 2, and may only see more than that in Week 4 as a way to slow down the pace of the offense after playing 92 snaps in the heat last week. Note the use of the word "may"; the Bills still throw the ball on 66.2% of their snaps, sixth-highest in the league. 
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BAL Baltimore • #27
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -3 O/U 51.5
OPP VS RB
4th
PROJ PTS
10.6
RB RNK
41st
YTD Stats
RUYDS
23
REC
2
REYDS
17
TD
0
FPTS/G
6
Dobbins doesn't have a good matchup, nor has he proven that he's ready for a much larger workload. Lamar Jackson remains the Ravens best-running threat, and in a game against the high-scoring Bills, it's likely Dobbins could fall out of the game plan. I'd rather take my chances with Devin Singletary or Melvin Gordon.

Dave's Notebook:

  • DOBBINS: After playing just 44% of the snaps last week (Justice Hill played more), and turning seven carries into 23 yards, it's quite a leap of faith to trust Dobbins. 
  • JUSTICE HILL: The Ravens' other rusher last Sunday played more snaps (47%), was much better rushing (6-60) and took on 7 of 11 snaps on 3rd/4th downs as well as 5 of 7 snaps inside the 10. Dobbins used to share rushing work with Gus Edwards back in 2020, so that doesn't seem to be changing. 
  • BILLS: Have given up just 2.66 yards per carry to running backs (second-best in the league). Their D-line has been something else, pinning running backs to a 0.23 yards before contact average (which is somehow only second-best). 
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BAL Baltimore • #7
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -3 O/U 51.5
OPP VS WR
9th
PROJ PTS
12.4
WR RNK
37th
YTD Stats
REC
8
TAR
16
REYDS
226
TD
2
FPTS/G
13.5
Bateman has a role in Fantasy lineups as a high-upside flex, but because his role in the passing game is so limited, he's not the easiest to trust. If the Bills secondary were healthy, he'd be easy to sit across the board. As it stands he's easier to put on the bench in full PPR (would rather start Garrett Wilson and Greg Dortch) compared to non-PPR (would start him ahead of Dortch, Brandon Aiyuk and JuJu Smith-Schuster).

Dave's Notebook:

  • BATEMAN: Start thinking about him like you used to think about Tyler Lockett -- a boom/bust Fantasy receiver thanks to his big-play ability. He currently leads all qualifying receivers in yards per catch (28.25!) and YAC/reception (14.88!) and is fourth in average depth of target (17.56 yards). 
  • BATEMAN: There's an obvious downside, which you saw last week. He dropped a deep ball that would have been a touchdown, and he's only commanding an 18.8% target share in an offense throwing the ball 56.6% of the time. Bateman also has zero red-zone targets. 
  • BILLS: At 87.3%, the Bills play the second-most zone coverage of any team. Only five teams have allowed fewer completions of 20-plus yards (six). Buffalo's secondary is thin on talent, but they're typically one of the best-coached defenses in football. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 135 yards last week on six catches/10 targets, but neither scored.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
PHI -6.5, O/U 47.5
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #23
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ PHI PHI -6.5 O/U 47
OPP VS RB
22nd
PROJ PTS
13
RB RNK
17th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
230
REC
6
REYDS
33
TD
4
FPTS/G
18.8
It's going to be tough to bench a guy who has been awesome for three straight games, but the Eagles run defense has turned it up over the past couple of weeks. With the expectation that the Eagles offense puts points on the Jaguars, I would be nervous expecting another 20 touches from Robinson in Week 4. He'll need to score in order to be good for your team, but Antonio Gibson scored last week on the Eagles and was barely good for 10 PPR points. Robinson is still start-worthy, but consider guys like Khalil Herbert, Jamaal Williams and even Gibson ahead of him.

Dave's Notebook:

  • ROBINSON: Has been a Fantasy hero for three straight weeks, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring four times.
  • ROBINSON: Beyond the rushing average, his efficiency is not that great. He ranks outside of the top-30 running backs in yards before and after contact and in rushing plays of five-plus yards (27.5%). Of his 56.3 PPR Fantasy points, 35.1 have come on the four plays he's scored. It's also worth mentioning that both of his long touchdown runs came when the Jaguars were winning by at least two scores. 
  • EAGLES: After a rough Week 1 against a good Lions O-line, the Eagles have halted running backs to 3.2 yards per rush, 0.83 yards before contact and 2.38 yards after contact per rush, all top-five in the NFL. They haven't allowed a run of more than 11 yards in their past eight quarters. 
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
PHI Philadelphia • #26
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs JAC PHI -6.5 O/U 47
OPP VS RB
15th
PROJ PTS
11.4
RB RNK
27th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
222
REC
6
REYDS
13
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.9
Sanders' best path to help Fantasy managers is to run for 100 yards. He's tough to trust to score given the other parts of the offense, and the matchup this week is a tough one. Pencil him in for 80 yards -- if you have a player who you think can do better, start that other player. I would rather start Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall and Dameon Pierce.

Dave's Notebook:

  • JAGUARS: This front seven is legit. They have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back, have given up 3.62 yards per carry (fifth-best), are top-10 in yards before and after contact allowed, and have allowed just 10 rushing first downs on the season! If there's a rub, it's that the Jaguars have seen the fewest rush attempts by running backs of anyone in the NFL (39). 
  • EAGLES: However, Philadelphia running backs have accumulated 65 total carries, which is low considering their 3-0 record and average margin of victory of 12 points per game.
  • SANDERS: Has 45 carries through three games, which is solid, but just four have come in the red zone (and that leads the team!). 
  • SANDERS: Last week was disappointing as he was given 15 carries against the Commanders and averaged an ugly 3.07 yards per carry. He also has five explosive runs (12-plus yards), but only two have come over his past two games. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
HOU +4.5, O/U 44
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
LAC L.A. Chargers • #7
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ HOU LAC -5 O/U 44
OPP VS TE
10th
PROJ PTS
10.1
TE RNK
14th
YTD Stats
REC
11
TAR
20
REYDS
150
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.7
With Allen sidelined again this week, Everett should keep a solid target share and be given chances to make plays against the Texans. Whereas he was a sit with the idea Allen would play, he is now a start ahead of the touchdown-or-bust tight end group including David Njoku, Logan Thomas, Dawson Knox and Cameron Brate.

Dave's Notebook:

  • CHARGERS: With Keenan Allen out, the expectation is that targets will be spread around through all remaining pass-catchers with after-catch or big-play potential. There's also the impact of losing left tackle Rashawn Slater -- while that could mean the Chargers will use a tight end to help block pass rushers, it also means Justin Herbert will need short-area targets to get the ball to quickly. 
  • EVERETT: Without Allen in Weeks 2 and 3, Everett has enjoyed an 18.9% target share, turning 16 targets into an 8-96-0 stat line. He's also had an ADOT of 6.88, which is plenty small but a signal that he's looked for on shorter throws a good amount of the time. 
  • TEXANS: Lead the NFL in lowest catch rate allowed to opposing tight ends (47.1%), but they haven't really been tested. Only 17 throws from opponents have been targeted to a tight end. Yet despite not facing any dangerous tight ends, they've allowed the second-highest receiving average (13.75). 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
PIT -3.5, O/U 40.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #20
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ PIT PIT -3.5 O/U 41.5
OPP VS RB
25th
PROJ PTS
11.8
RB RNK
28th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
112
REC
13
REYDS
101
TD
1
FPTS/G
12.8
There's too much uncertainty surrounding Hall to trust him in Fantasy this week. Having Zach Wilson back should be a net positive for the offense, but not necessarily for the roles of the running backs as Wilson is much more of a downfield thrower (and a rusher himself). There also isn't a guarantee that Hall will displace Carter enough to gain a large workload like the running backs who have done well against the Steelers had. You're better off playing it safe with Jeff Wilson or Josh Jacobs, or even taking the chance on Tony Pollard or Cam Akers.

Dave's Notebook:

  • HALL: Came alive in the second half last week with 28 yards on three carries including runs of 9 and 16 yards. This happened after the Bengals' top D-lineman, D.J. Reader, left the game. 
  • HALL: Overall Hall was more efficient than Michael Carter, and he played slightly more than Carter (51% of snaps to Carter's 49%). He particularly dominated in the pass game, playing on 17 of 21 third/fourth down snaps and collecting six catches on 11 targets. 
  • ZACH WILSON: The former first-round pick is expected to start for the Jets after recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery. With Wilson on the field last season, the Jets ran the ball 39.5% of the time. With Wilson on the field, running backs were targeted 19.1% of the time, right around league average. In the first three weeks of this season, Joe Flacco threw to his running backs 27.2% of the time. 
  • STEELERS: After relatively containing Joe Mixon in Week 1, the Steelers struggled to hold back Damien Harris (15-71-1) and Nick Chubb (23-113-1). Yet they're still slightly better than league-average in yards per carry allowed (4.18) and yards before contact allowed (1.05). Only the Texans have seen more running back carries against them.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
DET -4.5, O/U 49.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
SEA Seattle • #20
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET DET -4.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS RB
32nd
PROJ PTS
9.2
RB RNK
29th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
141
REC
3
REYDS
10
TD
0
FPTS/G
6
The Seahawks offensive line isn't perfect, and Penny isn't promised every single carry, but it's the kind of matchup Penny has thrived on in the past. This might even be the week the Seahawks opt to run more; they're currently passing at the seventh-highest rate in the league. I'd trust Penny over Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Dave's Notebook:

PENNY: Still the preferred running back for the Seahawks. Played 68% of the snaps last week (DeeJay Dallas played 22%, Kenneth Walker played just 13%) including 11 of 20 snaps on third/fourth downs. He's also played 3 of 4 snaps inside of the 10 for the Seahawks this season, but with no carries. Walker is still running with hesitation while Penny has flashed consistent vision and burst in his runs. 

LIONS: Given up 94 rushing yards and/or a rushing TD to a running back in 16 of their past 20 games (going back to start of 2021). Even Antonio Gibson had 9 non-PPR points against a Lions defense that played well against the Commanders run game in Week 2. 

LIONS: Allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs through three games including one to every running back who had at least four carries. 

Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
SEA Seattle • #16
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET DET -4.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS WR
25th
PROJ PTS
13.7
WR RNK
25th
YTD Stats
REC
21
TAR
26
REYDS
211
TD
0
FPTS/G
14
With at least 16 PPR points in each of his past two games, and with 11 targets in each of his past two games, Tyler Lockett seems much more like a crucial component to the Seattle offense than realized. Good passing by Geno Smith has obviously helped, and Smith should be in line for a sneaky good game. I might not expect 11 targets, but I'd still expect a good game. He's a No. 2 receiver in PPR ahead of Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams and DK Metcalf.

Dave's Notebook:

LOCKETT: Has worked as Seattle's No. 1 receiver over the past two weeks, earning a massive 31% target share and turning 22 targets into an 18-183-0 stat line. That's an 81.8% catch rate. 

LOCKETT: His ADOT has been trimmed to 10.38 yards, down from 14.6 in 2021. It means he's getting shorter throws, but more of them. He's also playing a little more in the slot so far than he did in 2021. 

LIONS: Rank in the bottom-10 in catch rate allowed (66.7%) and YAC/reception (5.25) allowed to slot receivers. Half of the six completions of 20-plus yards allowed have gone to wideouts who lined up in the slot. 

Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DET Detroit • #30
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs SEA DET -4.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS RB
24th
PROJ PTS
12.8
RB RNK
13th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
168
REC
4
REYDS
29
TD
4
FPTS/G
15.9
Williams isn't a terrific talent, but he's getting a huge opportunity to lead the Lions run game. He's already been trusted with valuable short-yardage carries (he has five carries inside the 5 and three touchdowns), so the coaches should trust him with more work. Plus the matchup is a good one. I'd start him over Leonard Fournette, James Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson, but not over Khalil Herbert if David Montgomery is out.

Notes:

  • WILLIAMS: In two games he started without D'Andre Swift last year, Williams had at least 17 carries and found at least 77 total yards per game. In the fourth quarter last week with Swift on and off the field, Williams had 10 carries for 38 yards and no receptions. The Lions played with a lead for nearly the entire quarter.
  • WILLIAMS: Has not seen a sizable target share yet this year, nor did he as the main running back in 2021. After Week 1 of last year when he had eight receptions on nine targets, Williams hasn't seen more than three targets in 14 of 15 games. This doesn't mean he can't catch, but it might mean his coaches don't want him to do it a lot. 
  • SEAHAWKS: Every lead running back against them in 2022 has found at least 100 total yards, and a running back has run for a touchdown on Seattle in each of its past two games. 
  • SEAHAWKS: Rank dead-last in yards before contact per carry to running backs this year (2.36), a sign their defensive fronts are getting pushed around.
  • LIONS: As a group, the Lions' running backs rank second in yards before contact per rush (2.32). They also rank third in yards per carry (5.42), though Williams actually brings these metrics down (3.9 yards per rush, 1.58 yards before contact per rush). 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
IND -3.5, O/U 42.5
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
TEN Tennessee • #17
Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ IND IND -3.5 O/U 42.5
OPP VS QB
18th
PROJ PTS
17.3
QB RNK
20th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
647
RUYDS
11
TD
4
INT
3
FPTS/G
14.9
It'll take some guts to start Tannehill against a Colts defense that just did a nice job against Patrick Mahomes, but he's got the track record against them and against their style of defense to come through. I would start him ahead of Marcus Mariota, Trevor Lawrence and, if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, Jared Goff. I might even consider him over Carson Wentz.

Notes:

  • TANNEHILL: Has posted at least 20 Fantasy points in two of three starts this season, which is pretty impressive considering the Titans offensive line, receiving corps and Tannehill's minimal rushing. 
  • COLTS: Typically play a lot of Cover-3 defense under Gus Bradley but did not do that last week against the Chiefs last week. I suspect they'll revert back to playing more Cover-3 this week, which they did against the Titans last year with a different playcaller. 
  • TANNEHILL: Has been very good against Cover-3 this season (10.5 yards per attempt, 69.2% completion rate, 100.5 QB rating). Tannehill also crushed the Colts for three touchdowns (and two interceptions) in each of two meetings in 2021. He actually has at least 20 Fantasy points in three straight against Indy. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
DAL -3.5, O/U 42.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
WAS Washington • #11
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DAL DAL -3 O/U 41.5
OPP VS QB
10th
PROJ PTS
15
QB RNK
17th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
861
RUYDS
57
TD
7
INT
3
FPTS/G
26
The Commanders should learn from last week and come up with a more succinct plan against the Cowboys, but it'll be tough to trust Wentz in Fantasy lineups. The best-case scenario is that he continues to keep throws short against what will probably be a zone-heavy plan for the Cowboys. It'll mean a compiling type of game for Wentz, which is why you're better off with the upside of Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa or Tom Brady.

Notes:

  • COMMANDERS: The O-line allowed 41.8% pressure rate versus Philly and a 39.6% pressure rate against Detroit, so they're clearly not protecting very well. Wentz has a hideous 50% completion rate and a -0.38 EPA/dropback when pressured this year.
  • COWBOYS: Applied a crazy amount of pressure last week against the Giants (55.1% of snaps) and blitzed more than normal (28.6% of snaps). By comparison, the Cowboys had a 32.4% pressure rate and a 16.2% blitz rate in Weeks 1 and 2 combined against the Buccaneers and Bengals' O-lines. 
  • COWBOYS: Have yet to allow more than 17 Fantasy points to a quarterback this season. They've faced Tom Brady, Joe Burrow and the legend himself, Daniel Jones. 
  • WENTZ: Was barely blitzed by the Eagles last week and still was sacked four times in the first quarter and nine times total. A putrid combination of feeling pressure when it wasn't there and too many pass plays with too many covered downfield targets led to a nightmarish day for Wentz. 
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
WAS Washington • #17
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DAL DAL -3 O/U 41.5
OPP VS WR
14th
PROJ PTS
11.8
WR RNK
31st
YTD Stats
REC
12
TAR
21
REYDS
235
TD
1
FPTS/G
14.1
If McLaurin can come down with over 100 yards against the Eagles, he should be trusted to have another good game in Week 4 against the Cowboys. Besides, McLaurin has yet to fall below 11 PPR points in a game this season, so he has a safe floor for a No. 2 option. I'd start him ahead of both Chargers receivers and DK Metcalf.

Notes:

  • COWBOYS: Compare favorably to the Eagles in terms of pass defense against outside wide receivers. They give up just a little more in terms of catch rate, yards per catch, yards after catch, but they've missed just one tackle all year compared to five for Philly. They're tough. 
  • McLAURIN: Didn't have a catch until the middle of the third quarter last week, then came through on a pair of well-thrown deep passes from Wentz for 45 and 18 yards to help push him over 100. It could have been an even bigger day if Wentz looked for him more and was a more efficient passer (and not under duress). 
  • McLAURIN: Has at least 16 PPR points in each of three career games against the Cowboys with at least seven targets. McLaurin has eight-plus targets in each of his past two games. He's also got at least a 30-yard reception in each game. 
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DAL Dallas • #20
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs WAS DAL -3 O/U 41.5
OPP VS RB
14th
PROJ PTS
11
RB RNK
26th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
156
REC
6
REYDS
69
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.5
Ezekiel Elliott remains the Cowboys' lead back (and a start-worthy one), but he's not necessarily their best back. In a matchup they figure to be competitive in, if not lead by a large margin, both Elliott and Pollard should find a nice amount of touches. Washington's run defense metrics open up the possibility for Pollard to have a useful Fantasy game, particularly in non-PPR.

Notes:

  • COMMANDERS: Allowing 5.27 yards per carry and 2.07 yards before contact to running backs, both in the bottom six in the league. 
  • POLLARD: Ranks sixth in yards per rush (5.57) and fifth in yards before contact per rush (2.0). He also happens to rank 11th in yards after contact per rush (3.57). 
  • POLLARD: Overtook Elliott in run efficiency metrics last week when he finally notched double-digit carries. 
  • COWBOYS: Have run the ball at the ninth-heaviest rate in Cooper Rush's two starts, both wins. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 1:00 pm ET •
NYG -3, O/U 38.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CHI Chicago • #24
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NYG NYG -3 O/U 38.5
OPP VS RB
20th
PROJ PTS
12.7
RB RNK
10th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
240
REC
4
REYDS
13
TD
3
FPTS/G
15.8
With the potential of being the lead running back for the Bears against a poor run defense that's coming off a Monday night loss, Herbert should shine. A game like what he did in Week 3 might be too much to expect, but a top-10 finish among running backs is a fairly safe bet. Seriously. I'd start him over Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris. Seriously.

Notes:

  • HERBERT: Looked outstanding last week rushing against the Texans, who entered Week 3 ranked 23rd in rush yards allowed per game (4.86). 
  • GIANTS: Enter Week 4 ranked 31st in rush yards allowed per game (5.57). 
  • GIANTS: Rank bottom-10 in third-down rush conversions allowed, yards before and after contact per rush allowed. Also ranked second in missed tackles with 20 and dead-last in defensive rushing EPA at -9.13. 
  • BEARS: Lead the universe in rush play rate at 65.4%. 
  • HERBERT: Ahead of David Montgomery in literally every rushing metric including yards per carry (7.27!), yards before contact per attempt (2.45!), yards after contact per attempt (4.82!) and plays resulting in five-plus rush yards (48.5%). Herbert is also top-13 in the league in each of these categories. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 4:25 pm ET •
LV -2.5, O/U 45.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DEN Denver • #3
Age: 34 • Experience: 11 year
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LV LV -2.5 O/U 45.5
OPP VS QB
26th
PROJ PTS
19.4
QB RNK
12th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
743
RUYDS
22
TD
2
INT
1
FPTS/G
13.9
The Raiders might be desperate for a win, but Wilson and the Broncos have got to feel close to getting in rhythm. This feels like a matchup where Wilson can be useful for Fantasy, albeit without the high upside so many other quarterbacks have. I'm ready to trust Wilson over Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill, but it's tougher to blindly trust him over Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.

Dave's Notebook:

  • WILSON: Still battling through some consistency issues, and last week seemed affected by the 49ers pass rush last week, especially on third downs.
  • WILSON: I counted three off-target throws that should have gone for decent gains; Wilson was eighth in off-target throws last year and is 13th so far this year. However, there were also two big-time plays with great timing (one to Jeudy, one to Sutton that set-up the game-winning touchdown) and another Classic Russ improvisational play that converted a third down on a deep ball to Kendall Hinton.
  • BRONCOS: There are still issues with the offensive line playing as well as it should, and there continue to be a lot of frustrating playcalls involing receivers running too far downfield given the pass protection and Wilson's sensitivity to pressure. Wilson and Coach Nathaniel Hackett each admitted there are some timing and rhythm issues that need to be resolved.
  • RAIDERS: This might be the perfect get-right matchup. Las Vegas has a pair of great pass rushers, but they're generating a pass rush pressure on just 31.3% of their snaps (tied for 12th-lowest rate). They're also blitzing just above the league average rate.
  • RAIDERS: Every quarterback they've faced has found at least 20 Fantasy points, including Ryan Tannehill last week. All three passers have thrown for more than 250 yards on Vegas.
  • WILSON: Has struggled against zone coverage. His completion rate is brutal to begin with, but at 62.8% against zone it's still low. His EPA per dropback is at -0.10 and his QB rating is 75.3. He's performed significantly better against man coverage complete with a 127.3 QB rating. 
  • RAIDERS: Have played the ninth-most man coverage in the league. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 4:25 pm ET •
GB -9.5, O/U 40.5
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NE New England • #38
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ GB GB -9.5 O/U 40.5
OPP VS RB
8th
PROJ PTS
9.5
RB RNK
30th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
145
REC
7
REYDS
34
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.3
It's a risk to trust any Patriots running back, especially a young one, but Stevenson is coming off his first game where he was treated as the main guy. Even if the team does opt for a 50-50 split, Stevenson's number will be called and he's emerging as a passing-downs player. I'd flex him ahead of Jeff Wilson, A.J. Dillon and Kareem Hunt.

Dave's Notebook:

  • STEVENSON: Played 62% of the snaps last week for the Patriots including 7 of 11 snaps on third/fourth downs and 5 of 8 snaps inside the 10. He was fifth among all running backs in yards per carry (6.08) and yards after contact per rush (5.50), and sixth in avoided tackle rate (41.7%). His five targets in Week 3 ranked tied for 12th. 
  • STEVENSON: It's impossible to know for sure if he'll get the lion's share of work this week because the Patriots are committed to using multiple backs. However, his explosiveness combined with his strength make him an attractive option, particularly since the offense will be quite different with Brian Hoyer under center. 
  • PACKERS: Though they held the Bucs run game to under 3.0 yards per carry in Week 3, they've still given up 5.44 yards per run and are bottom-five in terms of yards before and after contact. With the Patriots offensive line playing better, expect the unit to get tested. 
  • STEVENSON: Has been particularly effective on runs outside of the tackles (5.85 yards per rush). The Packers are particularly ineffective on such runs (5.63 yards per carry allowed, 4.30 yards after contact per attempt, both rank in bottom-five). 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 4:05 pm ET •
CAR -1.5, O/U 42.5
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
ARI Arizona • #6
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CAR CAR -1.5 O/U 42.5
OPP VS RB
18th
PROJ PTS
13.3
RB RNK
18th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
90
REC
10
REYDS
73
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.8
The Cardinals can talk about getting Conner going, but until Fantasy managers see it, he's going to be tough to trust. It would be particularly nice if Conner did even more in the pass game -- he's already sitting on 10 catches for the year, with half coming in Week 1. But without that coming, the best bet for Conner is to fall into decent numbers based on a lot of touches. That's not promised. He's a risky No. 2 running back who is better to go with than Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Ezekiel Elliott, but not over Cordarrelle Patterson or Dameon Pierce.

Dave's Notebook:

  • CARDINALS: Have called the third-most pass plays this season (68% of their snaps). They're below average in yards per rush, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive runs among their running backs. 
  • CONNER: Has been woefully bad, averaging 3.0 yards per carry with below-average efficiency in terms of explosiveness and before/after contact. He has no rushes of 12-plus yards. 
  • CONNER: Kyler Murray spoke this week about getting Conner going, saying "he's one of our best players, got to give your best players the ball, get them involved, and I think we'll do that." Murray acknowledged that not having a good run game makes it tougher on the rest of the offense. Kliff Kingsbury also specified how important it was for the offense to "stay on schedule." The Cardinals might 
  • PANTHERS: As a run-defense unit, they've been better over the past two weeks, containing Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. In those games they've allowed 3.74 yards per carry with a relatively-good six missed tackles. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Oct 2 at 8:20 pm ET •
TB +2, O/U 45
Sit Him in Non-PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
KC Kansas City • #9
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TB KC -2 O/U 45
OPP VS WR
17th
PROJ PTS
10.9
WR RNK
36th
YTD Stats
REC
14
TAR
19
REYDS
178
TD
0
FPTS/G
9.9
Smith-Schuster isn't an exciting Fantasy option, but in a game that might be fairly high scoring, Smith-Schuster is a safe bet for another 13 or so PPR points. That makes him a decent flex in PPR but a no-go in non-PPR.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SMITH-SCHUSTER: Has been better against zone coverage than man. He has more targets against zone compared to man, but a 53-yard catch-and-run against man coverage last week proved he can hang when guarded closely. Still, his catch rate against zone coverage (83.3%) crushes that versus man (57.1%). 
  • BUCCANEERS: Predominantly a zone-coverage defense, playing at the sixth-highest rate in 2022 (78.5% of snaps). 
  • BUCCANEERS: Have held opposing wide receivers to a 55.4% catch rate while playing a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-3 defense.
  • SMITH-SCHUSTER: Has an 89% catch rate against Cover-2 and Cover-3 schemes with 10.25 yards per catch. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Mon, Oct 3 at 8:15 pm ET •
SF -2.5, O/U 42
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
SF San Francisco • #11
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs LAR SF -2.5 O/U 42
OPP VS WR
31st
PROJ PTS
11.8
WR RNK
39th
YTD Stats
REC
10
TAR
19
REYDS
142
TD
1
FPTS/G
10.3
Aiyuk should see elevated targets in a matchup that isn't as tough as you might think. I'd trust him in my flex over uncertain receivers like Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard or D.J. Moore, but hotter names like Adam Thielen and Greg Dortch deserve a nod over them, at least in PPR.

Dave's Notebook:

  • RAMS: Would you believe no defense has allowed a higher catch rate to wide receivers (74.7%) than the Rams? Or that only one defense has allowed more receiving yards to wideouts than the Rams (667)? Of course, this comes with the territory when a defense gets thrown on as much as the Rams do -- quarterbacks have thrown 74 times against them through three weeks. 
  • AIYUK: On the season, Aiyuk has seen a 24.1% target share, but with Jimmy Garoppolo, that number has ballooned to 30%. Aiyuk has caught an inefficient 46.7% of his targets, but he has scored and has seen an ADOT of 12.73 yards. It's a matter of time before these two connect with regularity. 
  • 49ERS: Have been pretty close to even in pass-run ratio with Garoppolo (51.4% pass), but they're not going to be able to run the ball like they have in the past against the Rams given the state of their offensive line. Expect Garoppolo to get the ball out quick.