If you targeted a quarterback in the back half of the top 12 on draft day, there's a pretty good chance you came away disappointed. Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady all rank outside of the top 20 in Fantasy points per game. Add in Trey Lance's injury and Justin Fields' lack of pass attempts, and the quarterback position looks much different than we expected a month ago.
In theory, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady should be able to change that this week, but there's still plenty of room for skepticism for both.
- Week 4 Previews: | | |
Wilson faces a Raiders defense that isn't particularly good when healthy and will be without starting corner Rock Ya-Sin. The Raiders have given up at least 24 points every week and rank 26th in passing yards allowed. Still, Wilson's Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs with an implied point total of 21.5. That's hard to figure until you remember they haven't scored more than 16 points in a game this year despite facing both the Seahawks and the Texans. Wilson ranks as a high-end QB2 for me this week, but I'd rather start both Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff (assuming Amon-Ra St. Brown plays).
Brady has somehow been even worse than Wilson. His offensive line play has been mediocre at best, the Bucs run game has been non-existent and their pass rate has cratered. They're implied for 22 points this week against a Chiefs defense that has given up 24.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. While Brady does get Mike Evans back, I'm not ready to trust him until I see a good game, or at least see Chris Godwin back on the field.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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Week 4 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 3 -- Lamar Jackson has at least three touchdown passes in every game this year.
- 2 -- Just two touchdown passes this season for Russell Wilson.
- 16.7 -- Marcus Mariota led all quarterbacks with a 16.7-yard average depth of target in Week 3.
- 5.4 -- Aaron Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks.
- 9.35 -- Jalen Hurts is averaging 9.35 yards per pass attempt, which leads the NFL.
- 31.4 -- Justin Fields has scored 31.4 Fantasy points this season, dead last among QBs who have played all three games.
- 12 -- Kyler Murray has just 12 rush attempts this season. That's tied with Baker Mayfield for 11th-most.
- 8 -- 8% of Tom Brady's passes have been dropped this season. That's tied for second-most behind only Jared Goff.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Mariota ranks as QB15 on the season despite some pretty miserable touchdown luck. He'll face a Browns defense that could be without both Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney this week. This game has one of the highest over-unders on the Week 4 slate and I like Mariota's chances of producing 275 total yards and two touchdowns.
PIT Pittsburgh • #10
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
This may be Trubisky's last stand as a starter and he couldn't ask for a much better matchup. The Jets have surrendered 23.67 FPPG to opposing QBs despite the fact that they've only faced 31 attempts per game. This game has sneaky shootout appeal and I wouldn't mind stacking it in DFS.
Zach Wilson QB
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #2
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
As a second-year quarterback, Wilson should be improved this year. He has a very talented set of weapons and a coaching staff that's calling 50 pass attempts per game. With his mobility, he could be a high-end QB2 if he makes a leap.
Jalen Hurts QB
PHI Philadelphia • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Hurts is playing fantastic football and we still haven't seen his best game yet. He does not have a second-half touchdown yet this season, mostly because opposing teams haven't kept up on the scoreboard. If Jacksonville's offense shows up, Week 4 could be when Hurts is fully unlocked.
Mariota's weapons in the passing game and running ability gives him three-touchdown upside in a game that has a surprisingly high over/under of 48.