Fantasy managers have a Joe Burrow dilemma heading into Week 4 at Tennessee. He's clearly not healthy because of his lingering calf injury, but this matchup with the Titans is amazing. So can you trust him as a starting Fantasy quarterback?
He played in Week 3 against the Rams despite being at less than 100 percent and attempted 49 passes. But almost all of his throws were short, and he's averaging just 4.7 yards per attempt for the season since he can't drive off his plant leg. He completed 26 passes for 259 yards, no touchdowns and one interception and only scored 8.2 Fantasy points. He's also yet to score 20 Fantasy points in any game this year.
But now comes the matchup against Tennessee, and the Titans have allowed Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson to score at least 25.2 Fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. It's hard to run against Tennessee, so most teams torch the Titans through the air.
I would expect the Bengals to have a similar gameplan in Week 3 that they had in Week 4 with a lot of short throws, and Burrow getting the ball out of hands quickly. Ja'Marr Chase benefited immensely against the Rams with 12 catches for 141 yards on 15 targets, but Tee Higgins had just two catches for 21 yards on eight targets.
You're still starting Chase and Higgins in all leagues, and the Titans are No. 4 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. But I'm not sure you can trust Burrow as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback.
Given his limitations, he'll need his receivers to break some big plays, or he'll need to throw multiple touchdowns for just the second game this year. I have Burrow ranked as the No. 16 quarterback for Week 4.
I hope he's healthy in this game and can start performing like the star quarterback we expect him to be. But until you see it, be prepared to find an alternative starting option, and I like Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones better than Burrow this week. One of those QBs has the easiest remaining schedule in the league according to Dave Richard, and you can see which in his weekly Projected Strength of Schedule rankings at SportsLine.
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It was so bad for Justin Fields in Week 3 at Kansas City that even Taylor Swift was rooting against him. OK, that wasn't why she was cheering at Arrowhead Stadium, but you never know.
Fields passed for just 99 yards against the Chiefs in a 41-10 rout, dropping Chicago to 0-3, and it's been a brutal start for him this season. He's scored fewer than 17 Fantasy points in each outing, and he's looked lost.
But I still have hope for Fields this season. I still believe in him, and I expect him to have a big game against Denver in Week 4. I'm hopeful that the quarterback who scored at least 24 Fantasy points in six of his final nine starts last season will show up again, starting this week.
The Broncos have allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, with Jimmy Garoppolo (19.1 points), Sam Howell (25.3) and Tua Tagovailoa (36.4) all scoring at least two touchdowns against Denver. The Broncos also have just four sacks and one interception in three games, and they are playing back-to-back road games after a humiliating 70-20 loss at Miami in Week 3.
Fields is also averaging 23.7 Fantasy points in his past five home games going back to last season, and he's coming back to Chicago after two road contests in a row at Tampa Bay and at Kansas City. This is a great opportunity for the Bears to end their 13-game losing streak, and hopefully D.J. Moore will start playing better as well, along with Fields. I would start Moore in all leagues in Week 4.
I'm trusting Fields still as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback against Denver. I believe in him for this week despite his struggles to start the season, and he will have a standout performance against the Broncos at home. For a quality second opinion, check out Heath Cummings' Week 4 projections for multiple formats over at SportsLine.
Quarterbacks
Love was impressive in Week 3 against New Orleans when he rallied the Packers from a 17-point deficit to win 18-17 in his first start at Lambeau Field. He scored 26.3 Fantasy points against the Saints, and he's now scored at least that many points in all three starts this season. He's done that without Christian Watson (hamstring) for all three games, as well as being without Aaron Jones (hamstring) for the past two outings, and having offensive line issues. Watson and Jones are hopeful to play Thursday night against the Lions, which makes Love that much more appealing as a starter in all leagues. Detroit also has allowed at least 23.5 Fantasy points to a quarterback in two of three games this season.
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Missed touchdowns have hurt Lawrence the past two weeks against the Chiefs and Texans, and he comes into Week 4 against the Falcons in London having scored a combined 25.6 Fantasy points in his past two outings. I expect him to bounce back against Atlanta, and the Falcons have allowed Jordan Love (26.3 Fantasy points) and Jared Goff (20.0 points) to have productive outings in the past two games. Look for Lawrence to get back on the same page with Calvin Ridley in this matchup, as Ridley is facing his former team, and I still trust Lawrence as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in Week 4.
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Smith gets a chance to beat up on the Giants in Week 4, much like Joshua Dobbs and Brock Purdy did in the past two games. Dobbs scored 27.2 Fantasy points against the Giants in Week 2, and Purdy had 24.2 points against the Giants in Week 3. Both of those games were on the road, but Smith's best game this season was on the road in Week 2 at Detroit when he scored 27.1 Fantasy points. Smith faced the Giants in Week 8 last year at home, and he scored 23.1 Fantasy points. I could see a similar outing for Smith on Monday night.
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Every quarterback to face the Bears this season has scored at least 20.4 Fantasy points, including Jordan Love (29.0), Baker Mayfield (20.4) and Patrick Mahomes (31.7). Chicago has just two interceptions on the season, and both were from Blaine Gabbert in Week 3 in garbage time. Wilson has consecutive games with at least 300 passing yards, and he's scored at least 19.2 Fantasy points in two of three games this season. He should be considered a low-end No. 1 quarterback in all leagues in this matchup.
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In two games this season against Dallas and San Francisco, Jones has combined for 8.4 Fantasy points. Those are going to be two of the best defenses in the NFL. He also faced Arizona in Week 2, and Jones scored 34.7 Fantasy points. When Jones has a favorable matchup, you can trust him as a low-end starter in all leagues, and that's the case for Week 4 against Seattle. The Seahawks have struggled the past two games against Jared Goff (28.9 Fantasy points) and Andy Dalton (27.5 points), and Jones should follow suit. It would definitely help Jones if Saquon Barkley (ankle) is able to play in this game Monday night.
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It appears as if Purdy will have Deebo Samuel (ribs) and Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) healthy for Week 4 against the Cardinals, but those are injuries worth monitoring. Without Aiyuk in Week 3 against the Giants, Purdy still scored 24.3 Fantasy points, and he has two games this season with at least 20.8 points in three outings. The Cardinals have only allowed one quarterback to score more than 17.2 Fantasy points this season, which was Daniel Jones in Week 2 (34.7), but I'm still trusting Purdy as a low-end starter in this matchup. In one career game against Arizona in Week 18 last year, Purdy scored 25.8 Fantasy points.
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Richardson is expected to return in Week 4 against the Rams after sitting out Week 3 at Baltimore with a concussion. He should pick up where he left off when he scored 22.9 Fantasy points in Week 1 against Jacksonville, and he was on his way to a huge game against Houston in Week 2 before suffering the concussion in the first half since he had 17.7 Fantasy points at the time. The Rams have done a good job in containing opposing quarterbacks, but so far they've faced Geno Smith, Brock Purdy and a gimpy Joe Burrow. As long as Richardson is healthy, he should have the chance for a top-10 finish in this matchup at home.
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Watson did a great job against the Titans in Week 3 with 25.2 Fantasy points, but most quarterbacks will beat up on Tennessee's secondary. This is a step up in competition, and we should see Watson struggle like he did in Week 2 against the Steelers when he was held to 13.6 Fantasy points. The Ravens are allowing an average of just 15.1 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the season, and no quarterback has more than 19.4 points against them in three outings. Watson scored 14.6 Fantasy points against Baltimore in Week 15 last year, and in three career meetings against the Ravens, his best outing was 16.7 points in 2020 with Houston.
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I'll stick with the home and road splits for Goff again this week, and I would try to avoid him playing at Green Bay. Goff has now scored 16.8 Fantasy points or less in 12 of his past 13 road games going back to 2021. Included in that stretch is Week 18 at Green Bay last season when he scored just 9.5 Fantasy points, and he scored 16.0 Fantasy points in his lone road game this year at Kansas City in Week 1. The Packers are allowing an average of just 18.03 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year, and they should be able to keep Goff under that total since he's playing away from Detroit.
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Prescott has been under 17 Fantasy points in two of three games this season, and he's coming off a disappointing performance in Week 3 at Arizona when he was 25-of-40 for 249 yards, one touchdown and one interception, along with 24 rushing yards. His offensive line is banged up, which is an issue, and Prescott isn't worth trusting in one-quarterback leagues against the Patriots, who have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for 250 yards this season. Jalen Hurts (14.5 Fantasy points) and Tua Tagovailoa (14.3 points) were both held in check by New England, and Prescott will probably struggle again in this matchup as well.
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Stafford's offensive line was battered in Week 3 at Cincinnati, and he was sacked seven times. Now he faces a Colts defense that is tied for second in the NFL in sacks with 12. Stafford also has four interceptions and two touchdowns in his past two games against the 49ers and Bengals, and he has just two games with more than 20 Fantasy points in his past 16 outings going back to 2021. It's hard to bench him in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, but I expect him to once again struggle, especially if his offensive line is without right guard Joe Noteboom (knee) and left tackle Alaric Jackson (thigh).
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Mayfield turned back into a pumpkin in Week 3 against Philadelphia with 12.0 Fantasy points, which snapped his two-game streak of scoring at least 20 points to start the season. I don't expect him to get back on track in Week 4 at New Orleans, and the Saints are allowing an average of just 14.7 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, including two touchdowns and four interceptions. Mike Evans also has a terrible history against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore -- In 10 games against Lattimore, Evans has scored more than 12.8 PPR points just once and has more than 64 yards only twice -- and if Evans is negated then Mayfield could really struggle.
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Howell had a historic game in Week 3 against Buffalo for all the wrong reasons. He had four interceptions and was sacked nine times, becoming the first quarterback to be sacked nine times while throwing four interceptions in a single game since Warren Moon vs. Dallas in 1985. Also, the 19 sacks the Commanders have allowed so far are tied for the second most through three games of a season since 1970. And now Howell has to face the Eagles and their defensive line. Good luck. I'm sitting him in all formats in Week 4.
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Running Backs
I was wrong about Moss in Week 3 at Baltimore, and he was impressive with 30 carries for 122 yards, along with two catches for 23 yards and a touchdown on three targets. He's scored at least 20.7 PPR points in two games in a row, and he should be started in all leagues in Week 4 against the Rams. He's now scored at least 12.0 PPR points in eight of his past 10 games where he's had at least 14 total touches, and he's played at least 76 percent of the snaps in each of the past two games. The Rams have allowed a running back to score at least 14.0 PPR points in each of their past two games, and Moss has top-10 upside in Week 4.
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The Dolphins defense vs. running backs tightened up in Week 3 against Denver, but Miami allowed three running backs to score at least 15.0 PPR points in the first two games of the season against the Chargers and Patriots. Cook has scored at least 13.2 PPR points in each of his past two games against the Raiders and Commanders, and he's done that without scoring a touchdown. It stinks that he's losing touchdowns to Latavius Murray and Damien Harris, but Cook is the best running back in Buffalo by far. And he should be considered a high-end No. 2 PPR running back in Week 4 against Miami.
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Williams has been disappointing so far this season, scoring fewer than 10.0 PPR points in all three games, but this is a get-right spot against the Bears in Week 4. Chicago has already allowed five running backs to score at least 12.7 PPR points, including seven total touchdowns to the position. Only the Broncos have allowed more Fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and Williams, unfortunately, can't face his own defense in a real game. I like Williams as a top-15 Fantasy running back in all leagues.
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Kamara will make his 2023 debut in Week 4 against Tampa Bay after serving a three-game suspension, and Fantasy managers should use him as a No. 2 running back in all leagues. The Buccaneers run defense is tough, but two running backs have already scored at least 13.4 PPR points against them in three games. Kamara should also have fresh legs against this defense, which played Monday night, and he has four total touchdowns in his past five games against the Buccaneers.
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There's obvious concern for Achane having a letdown game after his historic performance against Denver in Week 3 when he had 18 carries for 203 yards and two touchdowns and four catches for 30 yards and two touchdowns on four targets. The Bills defense is a significant step up in competition from the Broncos, and Achane is still in a timeshare with Raheem Mostert, who is a must-start Fantasy running back. But I'm still going to start Achane as a No. 2 running back this week and hope the Dolphins continue to give him work. This game has the highest projected point total of the week at 53.5, and Mike McDaniel's offense is clicking right now. Achane showed he can thrive in the passing game and convert at the goal line, and he's worth trusting in your lineup for Week 4.
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Montgomery (thigh) is expected to play Thursday night at Green Bay after missing Week 3, and he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues. He should return to his role as the leader in carries for Detroit, and he scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first two games. The Packers have allowed two running backs to score at least 17.5 PPR points this season, and Montgomery has scored at least 14.1 PPR points in five games in a row against Green Bay dating back to his time in Chicago.
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Johnson and Khalil Herbert are both in play as flex options this week against the Broncos, who have allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Granted, the majority of it was the 96.5 PPR points scored by Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane in Week 3, but Brian Robinson Jr. also scored 26.9 PPR points against the Broncos in Week 2. I'll give a slight lean toward Johnson over Herbert since it feels like the Bears want to make a switch on who plays more, but that's just a gut call. However, given the matchup, I do expect both Bears running backs to have the chance to help Fantasy managers this week.
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The Steelers are sticking with Harris as their No. 1 running back, but it's as close to an even split as you can get. Harris played 31 snaps in Week 3 at Las Vegas, while Warren had 28, and it feels like Mike Tomlin knows he needs to get Warren more work. Now, neither was overly impressive against the Raiders, but Warren looks more explosive every time he touches the ball. I'll use both as flex options in Week 4 at Houston, and the Texans have already allowed four running backs to score at least 11.7 PPR points this season.
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I thought Robinson would struggle in Week 3 against Buffalo, and he did with 7.0 PPR points. He failed to score a touchdown or catch a pass for the first time this season, although he averaged 7.0 yards per carry. He faces another tough matchup in Week 4 against the Eagles, and Philadelphia has yet to allow a running back to score this season. Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1 is the lone running back with more than 9.3 PPR points against the Eagles, and Robinson is only worth starting as a flex option at best in Week 4.
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The Chiefs allowed David Montgomery to score a rushing touchdown in Week 1, but he's the lone running back with more than 8.0 PPR points against Kansas City this season. Hall has yet to play 50 percent of the snaps for the Jets in three games, and he's combined for 16 carries for 27 yards and one catch for 9 yards on four targets in his past two outings against the Cowboys and Patriots. Until Hall shows he's 100 percent back from last year's knee injury, as well as improved quarterback and offensive line play from the Jets, you should keep Hall on your bench in most leagues.
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Pierce found the end zone last week at Jacksonville, and the touchdown helped propel him to 14.9 PPR points, which is a season high. But he still ran for less than 40 yards for the third game in a row, and he was once again under 60 total yards. The Steelers have allowed a running back to score at least 11.0 PPR points in three games in a row, but I'm still not ready to trust Pierce as anything more than a flex option this week. He's also still in a timeshare with Devin Singletary, who has seen his playing time rise in each of the past three games.
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So far this season, White had a huge game in Week 2 against Chicago with 21.3 PPR points sandwiched by two dud games against Minnesota (6.9 PPR points) and Philadelphia (7.2 PPR points). His matchup in Week 4 at New Orleans feels like it will have another disappointing outcome, and the Saints have yet to allow a running back to score a touchdown this season in matchups with Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders and A.J. Dillon. In PPR, White remains a high-end flex since he has eight catches on eight targets in his past two outings, but he's averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and has one touchdown, which makes him tough to trust as a starter in all formats.
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I'm still starting Mixon as a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, but I don't have a lot of confidence in him against the Titans. While Tennessee did allow Jerome Ford to score two touchdowns in Week 3, no running back has more than 52 total yards against the Titans this year. And Ford was the first running back to score against Tennessee this season. Mixon scored a touchdown in Week 3 against the Rams, which was his first of the year, but he's yet to run for more than 65 yards in any contest. If I have a running back like Zack Moss, Kyren Williams or De'Von Achane on my roster then I'm benching Mixon this week given the matchup.
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Wide Receivers
Just start both Rams WRs against the Colts in Week 4. This could be the last game where Nacua and Tutu Atwell are featured since Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is eligible to return in Week 5, and both have a great matchup at Indianapolis. There have already been six receivers to score at least 13.0 PPR points against the Colts this season, including two games where a pair of receivers -- Jacksonville with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones in Week 1 and Houston with Nico Collins and Nathaniel Dell in Week 2 -- scored at least 16.5 PPR points. Nacua has scored at least 12.2 PPR points in each game, and Atwell has scored at least 15.2 PPR points in each outing.
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Just start both Rams WRs against the Colts in Week 4. This could be the last game where Puka Nacua and Atwell are featured since Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is eligible to return in Week 5, and both have a great matchup at Indianapolis. There have already been six receivers to score at least 13.0 PPR points against the Colts this season, including two games where a pair of receivers -- Jacksonville with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones in Week 1 and Houston with Nico Collins and Nathaniel Dell in Week 2 -- scored at least 16.5 PPR points. Nacua has scored at least 12.2 PPR points in each game, and Atwell has scored at least 15.2 PPR points in each outing.
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Just start both Houston WRs against the Steelers in Week 4. Collins has two games this season with at least 14.0 PPR points, and Nathaniel Dell has scored at least 20.2 PPR points in each of his past two games. The Steelers just allowed Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to each score at least 15.5 PPR points in Week 3, and four receivers have been above that total against Pittsburgh already in three games. I still like Collins ahead of Dell, but both have the chance to be No. 2 receivers in Week 4 with the way C.J. Stroud is getting them the ball.
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Just start both Houston WRs against the Steelers in Week 4. Collins has two games this season with at least 14.0 PPR points, and Dell has scored at least 20.2 PPR points in each of his past two games. The Steelers just allowed Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to each score at least 15.5 PPR points in Week 3, and four receivers have been above that total against Pittsburgh already in three games. I still like Collins ahead of Dell, but both have the chance to be No. 2 receivers in Week 4 with the way C.J. Stroud is getting them the ball.
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