Rory McIlroy played in his first tournament in more than two months when he was part of the Genesis Invitational field two weeks ago. McIlroy knocked off the rust with a 10th-place finish, earning more than $300,000 in the process. He now enters the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational as one of the favorites to win this week's tournament at Bay Hill. McIlroy, the 2018 champion, is listed at 12-1 in the latest 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

If McIlroy wants to win at Bay Hill, he will have to get past the likes of Jon Rahm, who is the current 17-2 favorite. Rahm and McIlroy are the only golfers priced inside of 15-1, but should they be included in your 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets? Before locking in your 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up over $9,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. In addition, McClure's model was all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard.

The model's top 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational: McIlroy, the 2018 champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top-five. The 32-year-old secured his 20th career PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the CJ Cup. He's also coming off a top-10 finish at the Genesis Invitational in his last start. 

However, McIlroy has struggled mightily with his accuracy off the tee this season. In fact, McIlroy is hitting under 55 percent of fairways off the tee, which could cause major trouble at Bay Hill. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022 field.

Another surprise: Adam Scott, a 35-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Scott has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Scott might have missed the cut at this tournament in 2020, but he finished in third place in 2014 and recorded a top 12 in 2016. He enters this event with some momentum after notching his second top-5 finish of the season at the Genesis Invitational. Scott also ranks inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in several key categories, including strokes gained: putting and total strokes gained. 

He tied the course record with a 62 in the first round at Bay Hill in 2014, so he knows what it takes to score well. Given his long odds, Scott is a steal when placing your 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets.

How to make 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 30-1 or higher who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up over $9,000 since the restart.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds

Jon Rahm +850
Rory McIlroy +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Marc Leishman +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Adam Scott +3500
Paul Casey +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Max Homa +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Sergio Garcia +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Talor Gooch +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Jason Day +5500
Corey Conners +6000
Cameron Tringale +5500
Justin Rose +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Chris Kirk +6600
Luke List +6600
Cameron Young +6600
Seamus Power +6600
Erik Van Rooyen +7000
Lanto Griffin +7000
Tom Hoge +8000
Kevin Na +8000
Thomas Pieters +8000
Si-Woo Kim +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Carlos Ortiz +10000
Patrick Reed +10000
Matthew Wolff +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Lee Westwood +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Troy Merritt +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Garrick Higgo +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Aaron Wise +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Takumi Kanaya +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Cam Davis +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Charles Howell +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Danny Lee +20000
Brendan Steele +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Hudson Swafford +20000
Cameron Champ +20000
Sean O'Hair +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Min Woo Lee +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Henrik Stenson +20000
Rory Sabbatini +20000
Zach Johnson +20000
Matt Wallace +20000
Padraig Harrington +20000
Branden Grace +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Alex Smalley +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Brandt Snedeker +20000
Greyson Sigg +25000
Vincent Whaley +25000
Henrik Norlander +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Hayden Buckley +25000
Graeme McDowell +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Peter Malnati +30000
Adam Long +30000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Adam Schenk +30000