Water is starting to find its level. After a couple of tough weeks in our locks section, we've broken through the ceiling and pulled out a strong 4-1 ATS mark in Week 3. Cincinnati got right against New York, Detroit covered in Minnesota and the Falcons and Rams both pulled out road wins. Our lone miss was admittedly our toughest game to peg, as we anticipated Justin Herbert playing in this game (which he did) and the Chargers edging out the traveling Jags (which they did not).
Still, that's a solid start as we turn the tide on a sluggish start to the year. Now we'll look to build on that momentum as we look towards Week 4, where there are a number of fascinating games on the slate. Of course, you'll see all of my picks for each game this week below, as well as a full breakdown highlighting my five locks of the week.
Locks of the Week ATS: 6-9
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
I'm highly encouraged by how the Jaguars have looked to begin the season, and I still think there is some value in them to win the AFC South at +200 and especially with Doug Pederson to COY at +600. They are coming off an impressive win on the road against the Chargers and could very well be 3-0 to start the year. That said, I'm fading them this week for a team that I believe is a legitimate Super Bowl threat in the Eagles.
As impressive as Jalen Hurts has been as a passer (340 yards and three passing touchdowns last week), their defense is what's making them particularly dangerous. Philadelphia was able to sack Carson Wentz nine times last week. Over the last two games, Nick Sirianni's defense has allowed just 15 total points and is 2-0 ATS. Getting them under a touchdown at Lincoln Financial Field (one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL) is the way to lean here, no matter how high I may be on Jacksonville's long-term prospects.
Projected score: Eagles 30, Jaguars 20
The pick: Eagles -6.5
The Lions have been a fantastic bet under head coach Dan Campbell. Throughout his tenure dating back to last season, Detroit has covered 70% of its games and is 3-0 ATS to begin the 2022 campaign. The Lions play each opponent tough and probably should have pulled out a win last week in Minnesota. This week, they get an easier opponent in the Seahawks, who are 0-2 after upsetting the Broncos in an emotional Week 1 matchup at home.
Even with star running back D'Andre Swift possibly , there is a clear mismatch between Detroit's offense and Seattle's defense. The Lions offense ranks seventh in the league in DVOA, while the Seahawks defense ranks 30th in the NFL. Detroit's defense hasn't been anything to write home about, either, but its offensive ceiling is higher in my eyes than what the Seahawks will be bringing to Ford Field.
Projected score: Lions 27, Seahawks 21
The pick: Lions -4.5
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This could very well be an AFC Championship preview considering how both quarterbacks have played to begin the season. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season in a weird outing against the Dolphins where it essentially led in every major statistical category outside of the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson willed his team to a win against the Patriots in Foxborough, but that was a much more competitive game than the final score indicated. Baltimore's defense still has some major holes in it and was gashed on deep balls by Mac Jones pretty consistently. Yes, it picked off the Pats quarterback three times, but I almost put that more on simply bad throws by Jones than anything Ravens defensive backs forced. Buffalo is a much different animal offensively and could leave them in the dust if everyone is healthy. Health will be a big caveat for this game as the Bills entire secondary is banged up, but if they can get back Jordan Poyer (foot), that would help solidify things on the back end.
Projected score: Bills 28, Ravens 24
The pick: Bills -3
Dolphins at Bengals
This feels like I'm falling into the Justin Herbert trap of last week again, but I feel like Tua Tagovailoa is going to play Thursday in Cincinnati. Even if he doesn't, Teddy Bridgewater is a fine backup that shouldn't turn the ball over. Taking advantage of turnovers is what jolted the Bengals to victory last week, as they scored 13 points off turnovers in a 27-12 win over the Jets. This game should be much closer, and I have my concerns about how the Bengals secondary will be able to contain the speeders that Miami is bringing offensively. In a tight game on a short week, I'll snag the points with Miami, even if Cincinnati finds a way to win.
Projected score: Bengals 24, Dolphins 23
The pick: Dolphins +4
The Cowboys are rising to the occasion and playing well in the absence of Dak Prescott, as they are now 2-0 in the games started by Cooper Rush this season. Not only has he played well and kept the offense afloat, but Dallas' defense continues to look like a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys defense ranks sixth in the NFL in DVOA against the pass and has consistently applied pressure on the quarterback. Carson Wentz is coming off a nine-sack game against the Eagles in Week 3, and that could continue in this NFC East showdown. Washington's offense has also looked suspect, ranking 29th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas should get a win at home by more than a field goal.
Projected score: Cowboys 24, Commanders 17
The pick: Cowboys -3
Rest of the bunch
Browns at Falcons
Projected score: Browns 27, Falcons 23
The pick: Browns -1.5
Jets at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Jets 20
The pick: Steelers -3.5
Chargers at Texans
Projected score: Chargers 27, Texans 21
The pick: Chargers -5
Patriots at Packers
Projected score: Packers 28, Patriots 17
The pick: Packers -10
Broncos at Raiders
Projected score: Broncos 23, Raiders 21
The pick: Broncos +2
Rams at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 23, Rams 21
The pick: Rams +2.5