The dogs were barking in Week 4 and we hit a number of those games square on the head. Within my five locks of the week, I zeroed in on three underdogs that not only were able to cover but won outright. That included the Houston Texans, who had their way with the Steelers and the Buccaneers getting the better of the Saints. In all, I went 4-1 ATS in my locks of the weeks. Along with those dogs coming up clutch, we were confident that Dallas could clear the touchdown spread in what proved to be a demolition of the Patriots.
So what was our only loss? Yup, it was the worst bad beat on the young season thus far with Patrick Mahomes choosing to slide in front of the goal line instead of running in for the touchdown in the closing seconds against the Jets that would've given us the cover. It was a smart decision by Mahomes, but crushing nonetheless.
So what does Week 5 have on deck for us? Well, we happen to be rolling with several underdogs once again and some are even featured in my locks.
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 12-8
ATS: 32-30-2
ML: 40-24
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Jaguars at Bills (in London)
- Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFLN, fubo)
The Bills showed us last week that they should still be looked at as the top dog in the AFC East and a prime contender in the conference with their convincing win over the Dolphins. Josh Allen has looked like an MVP front-runner in recent weeks and I think the Jaguars are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively. Jacksonville's offense has been sluggish over the first month, tied for 26th in the league in red zone efficiency and 29th on third down. Buffalo's defense has been quite strong in both of those areas, albeit losing Tre'Davious White will sting in the secondary. With this under a touchdown, I'm very comfortable laying the points and riding with one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Projected score: Bills 30, Jaguars 21
The pick: Bills -5.5
Texans at Falcons
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
We're going back to the well with the Texans and for good reason. C.J. Stroud has continued to look the part of a top-two pick and has thrown for the second-most passing yards (1,212) by a rookie through his first four career games in NFL history. They now go on the road to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that has a mountain of questions offensively, primarily as it relates to Desmond Ridder's ability to elevate the passing game. Atlanta is averaging the fewest passing yards per game in the league and there's really no signs of that improving, especially after back-to-back weeks of scoring seven or fewer points. Bijan Robinson could have a strong day on the ground but, because of how one-dimensional they are, I'm not sure that'll translate to winning football for the Falcons, so they drop this game at home.
Projected score: Texans 24, Falcons 13
The pick: Texans +1
Bengals at Cardinals
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
We might be on the doorstep of rock bottom for the Bengals. Joe Burrow continues to not look right and now he'll either be without or throwing to an injured Tee Higgins (fractured rib) in this game against the Cardinals. Cincinnati has scored three or fewer points twice this season and Burrow's 4.8 yards-per-pass-attempt average is the lowest from a quarterback since 1950 through the first four games. The Bengals have also punted on 52.3% of their drives this season, which is the highest mark in the league. While they're struggling in Cincy, the Cardinals have been spunky! They are 3-1 ATS and I believe this could be the second time this season they pull off the upset at State Farm Stadium. Joshua Dobbs has played well in place of the recovering Kyler Murray (ACL) and I think this could be a monster day for James Conner. The Bengals are allowing 5.1 yards per rush this season. Arizona comes away with the win here and sends the Bengals further into despair.
Projected score: Cardinals 23, Bengals 17
The pick: Cardinals +3
Jets at Broncos
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
If you had told me a couple of weeks ago that I'd be backing the Zach Wilson-led Jets not just to cover but to win outright, I'd say you were probably with the other New York QB on one of his "retreats." But here we are. The Broncos secondary will make just about any quarterback look good and that'll include Wilson, who is coming off arguably the best start of his career in the loss to Kansas City on Monday night. If we get that version of Wilson against a Denver defense that is allowing 285.5 passing yards (second-most in the NFL) and 3.3 passing touchdowns (most in the NFL) per game along with a league-high 78.1 completion percentage, the Jets should have no problem getting the win here. Also, New York's defense started to look like the shutdown unit we saw last year and gave Patrick Mahomes fits. What do we think they'll do to Russell Wilson?
Projected score: Jets 27, Broncos 23
The pick: Jets +2
Panthers at Lions
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Detroit is coming into this game with the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, which is just one of many angles that make them an appealing bet as they host the Panthers on Sunday. The Lions running game should continue to feast in this game with Carolina allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt (29th in the NFL) and the passing game could get a boost with the return of Jameson Williams, who recently had his suspension reduced. It's unclear how much/if at all Williams will play, but the vibes for the Lions are sky high, while the Panthers are still searching for their first win. Detroit is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games (best in the NFL over that stretch) and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.
Projected score: Lions 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Lions -9
Rest of the bunch
Bears at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 24, Bears 20
The pick: Bears +7
Titans at Colts
Projected score: Titans 21, Colts 20
The pick: Titans +1.5
Giants at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 33, Giants 17
The pick: Dolphins -10.5
Saints at Patriots
Projected score: Saints 20, Patriots 16
The pick: Saints +1.5
Ravens at Steelers
Projected score: Ravens 23, Steelers 17
The pick: Ravens -4.5
Eagles at Rams
Projected score: Eagles 30, Rams 27
The pick: Rams +4
Chiefs at Vikings
Projected score: Chiefs 31, Vikings 24
The pick: Chiefs -5
Cowboys at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 28, Cowboys 23
The pick: 49ers -4
Packers at Raiders
Projected score: Packers 24, Raiders 21
The pick: Packers -2
