PHOENIX -- After many long days of thinking about it, I'd like everyone to know that I am finally ready to make my Super Bowl pick.
It hasn't been easy trying to decide who's going to win. For one, we have one of the biggest revenge games in Super Bowl history, which means I had to watch Revenge of the Nerds, Jaws: The Revenge and the Revenge of Michael Myers just to get an idea of what Andy Reid will be feeling when he faces the Eagles on Sunday. But let's not forget, this is a double-revenge game, because Nick Sirianni used to be an assistant coach with the Chiefs until Reid let him go after being hired by Kansas City in 2013. I might have to watch four more revenge movies to fully understand the revenge factor here.
I also had to watch Property Brothers, Step Brothers and Blues Brothers to get an idea of how Jason and Travis Kelce will feel in this game when they become the first set of brothers to play against each other in a Super Bowl.
If you're wondering how I found time to watch all of that stuff, I did it on my flight to Phoenix. That's right, I'm in Arizona and I'll be here all week. As a matter of fact, if this pick sounds like an incoherent mess, that's because I'm writing it at 1 a.m. directly after having attended the annual circus known as Super Bowl Media Night. The good news is that I saw Patrick Mahomes' ankle (it looks good), Andy Reid's mustache (it looks dapper) and the Eagles' mascot (he looks freshly molted), who I'm pretty sure was hitting on the daughter of the Chiefs' owner.
Swoop may or may not be trying to score a date with the daughter of the Chiefs owner (@gracelynhunt) #eagles #chiefs #superbowlopeningnight #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/lPKeqFVU5J— John Breech (@johnbreech) February 7, 2023
Anyway, what all of this means is that I feel like I am now 100% prepared to make this pick.
So who am I taking in this game?
Let's get to the pick and find out.
Actually, before we get to the pick, here's a quick reminder to check out the Super Bowl picks from all of our other CBS Sports NFL writers, which you can do by clicking here. If that's not enough Super Bowl content for you, then I recommend clicking here and checking out the Pick Six podcast on YouTube. Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and I are spending the week together in Arizona and we'll be putting out new podcasts every day, which means you get more of me, which I have to think is a good thing.
Also, since I'll be in Arizona this week, feel free to start following me on Facebook or Twitter or Instagram, you won't regret it. However, I might eventually regret my Super Bowl pick. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Super Bowl LVII Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
It took 57 years, but I think we might finally be getting the most evenly matched Super Bowl of all-time. Everything about these two teams is so even that I'm actually kind of frightened.
The Chiefs this year:— Field Yates (@FieldYates) February 6, 2023
- 16-3 overall record
- 546 points scored
- 6 All Pros, including a Kelce brother and their QB
- AFC's Number 1 seed
The Eagles this year:
- 16-3 overall record
- 546 points scored
- 6 All Pros, including a Kelce brother and their QB
- NFC's Number 1 seed
Not only are all of those things evenly matched, this game is also giving us the highest-scoring team in the AFC against the highest-scoring team in the NFC. As if that's not enough, we'll also be getting the team that led the AFC in sacks against the team that led the NFC in sacks.
These teams are so evenly matched that we can now retire the Spider-man meme because it will never apply to anything as much as it applies to this game.
If the NFL is smart, it will let Spider-man handle the opening coin toss on Sunday.
The biggest matchup in this game is going to be Patrick Mahomes against the Eagles pass-rush. Through 19 games, the Eagles have totaled 78 sacks on the season, which is the third-most in NFL history behind only the 1984 Bears (82 sacks) and the 1985 Bears (80 sacks). The Eagles had four players this year who all recorded at least 10 sacks -- Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat -- and if those guys spend four quarters beating up on Mahomes and his gimpy ankle, then this is going to turn into an Eagles blowout.
The best case scenario for the Eagles would be for this game to turn into Super Bowl LV. If you don't remember that game, that's the one where Mahomes tried to play through an injured toe, only to get destroyed by a Buccaneers defense that sacked him three times in a 31-9 Tampa Bay win. If Mahomes aggravates his ankle injury on Sunday, I won't be surprised if the Chiefs are once again on the losing end of a Super Bowl blowout.
On the other hand, if Mahomes can get the Chiefs offense going, then you have to like the Chiefs' chances. For Kansas City, the magic number might just be 310: If the Chiefs can get to just 310 yards on the Eagles' defense, that means they'll have been moving the ball. The Eagles only allowed 310 yards of offense or more in seven games this year and they went 4-3 in those games. On the other hand, they went 12-0 when surrendering less than 310 yards.
The Eagles defense has been great, but it hasn't faced anyone this year who's anywhere near the caliber of Mahomes, which might be one reason why Brandon Aiyuk is so sure the Chiefs are going to win. The 49ers receiver is absolutely convinced that the Chiefs are going to "expose" Philadelphia's defense.
"They talk about [Philadelphia] being a good defense, I'm not too sure," Aiyuk said on Feb. 4. "I think the pass game, this Kansas City pass game, will expose what we thought we were going to be able to expose before some unfortunate circumstances happened."
Does that sound like someone who's bitter about losing to the Eagles? Yes.
Can I trust his opinion? I'm still not sure.
Trying to pick the winner in this game is like trying to pick between left Twix and right Twix. These teams are so evenly matched that I'm almost inclined to pick a tie, but I'm not going to do that, because then I'd be the laughingstock of the internet and we all know how much I hate being the laughingstock of the internet.
The early version of the NFL script says that the Eagles are going to win 37-34...
The Super Bowl script was leaked😲 pic.twitter.com/DI8JlKQtkj— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) February 5, 2023
... However, as everyone knows, the NFL never sticks with the early version of the script. Nope, they do a total rewrite five days before the game and I think Chiefs fans are going to like the new script.
SUPER BOWL LVII PICK: Chiefs 27-24 over Eagles.
Record picking Chiefs games this season: 17-2
Record picking Eagles games this season: 12-7
Best pick: Two weeks ago, I predicted that the Eagles would beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship game and then the Eagles went out and beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship. What I didn't predict, though, is that the 49ers would go through 17 quarterbacks in the game. I also didn't predict that the 49ers QB situation would turn so dire that they'd have to let Christian McCaffrey start throwing passes. I also didn't predict that they'd be stuck playing a quarterback in the second half who couldn't even throw a forward pass. However, I probably should have seen this all coming and that's because there is no one in the NFL who's more cursed in big games than Kyle Shanahan.
I mean, just look at this.
49ers playoff history with Kyle Shanahan has been painful:— John Breech (@johnbreech) January 29, 2023
2019: Blew 10-point in 4th quarter of Super Bowl
2021: Blew 10-point in 4th quarter of NFC title game
2022: Ran out of quarterbacks
And let's not forget that he was the offensive coordinator for the Falcons in that one game (Super Bowl LI) where they blew that one lead (28-3). The next time I have to pick a winner in a 49ers playoff game, I will definitely be picking them to lose in the most painful way possible, because pain is all Kyle Shanahan knows.
Worst pick: I whiffed on my AFC title game pick, but that's only because I didn't know that the officiating crew was going to be inventing new rules for the game. Since it's been two weeks and you might have forgotten, here's a quick refresher of what exactly happened in Kansas City's win over Cincinnati.
Recap of the Bengals-Chiefs game: pic.twitter.com/IUtCIm1KUI— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) January 31, 2023
Alright guys, I have some sad news. This was my final picks column of the season, which means I am now going to go into hibernation and do nothing for the next seven months. Just kidding, that's not how things work. I'll still be writing over the next seven months, but the picks won't be returning until September. If you can't wait that long, then I highly suggest you sign up for our NFL newsletter, which I'm in charge of. It's basically the offseason version of this picks column except without the picks. It comes to your email box every weekday and you can sign up by clicking here (Just look for the Pick Six newsletter).
If you sign up, I'll see you soon. If you don't sign up, I'll see you in September for the opener, but you should sign up.
Straight up in conference title games: 1-1
SU overall in playoffs: 8-4
Against the spread in conference title games: 1-1
ATS overall in playoffs: 6-6
Final 2022 regular season record
Against the spread: 129-133-9
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably crying in a corner, because there are no more NFL games to pick until September .