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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +814.5
    (61%)
    38-24 in Last 62 NHL ML Picks
    NYI
    -162
    Money Line
    Picked: Mar 27 @ 3:39pm

    Analysis

    This will go up probably 20-25 cents by Saturday early puck drop as massive disappointment Florida is shutting guys down left and right with the playoffs a pipe dream at this point. The mini-dynasty is finished. The Islanders need every point they can get for an East playoff spot and already have confirmed No. 1 Ilya Sorokin in net for Saturday. The Vezina candidate leads the NHL with seven shutouts and has won his past two, allowing just one goal on 53 total shots.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    EC
    player headshot
    P. Crow-Armstrong
    YES
    +121
    Record An RBI
    Picked: Mar 28 @ 1:24am

    Analysis

    PCA is 7 for 9 lifetime vs. Miles Mikolas with five home runs and 6 RBIs. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field and Chicago's new $115 million man hitting in the heart of the order, I expect the Cubs' centerfielder to drive in multiple runs on Saturday.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    EC
    CHC -1.5
    -113
    Spread
    Picked: Mar 28 @ 1:27am

    Analysis

    I should know better than to lay the home team -1.5 once again as I lost by the hook with the Orioles on Thursday. But I think the Cubs crush Miles Mikolas and a Nationals lineup that is among the least imposing on paper in baseball. Cade Horton should've won NL Rookie of the Year in 2025 and I think he keeps the Nats in check on Saturday. Chicago avenges Thursday's blowout home loss and scores at least seven runs in a big win.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    Severance Pays
    player headshot
    M. Busch
    Over 0.5
    -158
    Runs
    Picked: Mar 28 @ 11:59am

    Analysis

    The winds are blowing out about 10 mph at Wrigley today, so I expect the Cubbies to put up a crooked number against well-past-his-prime Nats starter Miles Mikolas. Leadoff hitter Michael Busch was terrific in the opening loss at 3-for-4 with two runs scored and a walk. He's more than capable of simply hitting one out in B1 to cash this immediately as Busch is 6-for-15 career with a walk (.438 OBP) and three homers off Mikolas. The model essentially gives Busch a 68% shot of scoring a run and that's about -213 on the moneyline so some value in that regard.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    Severance Pays
    player headshot
    D. Cease
    YES
    +124
    Pitcher to Record a Win
    Picked: Mar 28 @ 9:37am

    Analysis

    I like the Blue Jays again today but not at -190. We don't yet have -1 or "don't bat bottom of nine" props or I would likely play one of those on Toronto. But this is a nice price on new addition Dylan Cease, always a workhorse. He was up to 83 pitches in his spring finale and great all during Grapefruit League play with a 0.93 ERA. It's all about control for Cease. If he has it, lights out. He will go at least five today barring a ton of walks. A's starter Jeffrey Springs was ripped in his lone start in Toronto last year and the Jays were good vs. southpaws overall. Half-unit as pretty much all my player props will be.

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