SAN ANTONIO – Week 8 in the AAF was one that provided both clarity and more questions all at the same time.
In one respect, we know now that the East playoff race is set. Orlando is the top seed after edging Memphis and Birmingham is the second team after besting Atlanta in a good ol' fashioned rock fight. We've known those are the two best teams in that conference for a while, all we needed was to make it official.
However, Orlando has been a little more human lately, needing a late comeback effort to fend off the Express. Is this something to be worried about if you're an Apollos fan? Or, will this team hit the reset button come playoff time?
Elsewhere, the Hotshots look like the top team in the West after an impressive win at San Antonio, and it could be argued they are No. 1 in the AAF at the moment. But could that change in the next couple of weeks? Remember: Arizona lost three straight games before winning three straight.
We'll get more answers as the season winds to a close. For now, let's look back at the lessons learned from Week 8.
How far apart are Arizona and San Antonio, really?
The Hotshots have won three straight and are playing as well as any team in the Alliance. I asked Arizona coach Rick Neuheisel after a 23-6 win over San Antonio to assess how good he thinks his team is at the moment. "Pretty good," he said modestly, "but there are a lot of pretty good teams." He believes the Commanders are one of them. And he's right. Sunday night's battle in the Alamodome could've been the second of three meetings for two potentially playoff-bound teams out of the West, both of whom are now tied at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the division.
"All we did was make things harder on ourselves," said Commanders coach Mike Riley, noting that a playoff berth could have been secured. Still, San Antonio may have been bound for a hiccup after winning four straight games. No team in the Alliance has won more than five straight. Riley lamented the mental mistakes (10 penalties for 66 yards) and two turnovers -- all of which were costly. That, he believed, was the real difference in the game.
However, it's fair to say that Arizona is playing as well as any team in the AAF, including Orlando, which it beat in Week 6. Seeing as Arizona and San Antonio have won a combined seven of their last nine games, these have been two of the hottest teams in the AAF outside of the Apollos. San Antonio got the best of Arizona in Week 5 and now the Hotshots have the advantage. Will that change of guards happen again in the playoffs in April?
Memphis can't buy a break
It wouldn't be right to blame the Express' 34-31 loss on officiating, although frustration with some of the calls in Saturday's game on both sides are certainly justifiable. Still, it was a sloppy game and both teams combined for 25 penalties for 259 yards and five turnovers. Mishaps and a series of unfortunate events just happened to cost the Express a little bit more. From quarterback Johnny Manziel being knocked out in the first quarter with a concussion to the fumbled punt in the fourth quarter that led to Orlando's go-ahead score, Saturday's loss was a microcosm of all the little things adding up.
Ball slips away from Memphis on the punt, setting Orlando up in scoring range! 😳
— The Alliance (@TheAAF) March 30, 2019
#ORLvsMEM pic.twitter.com/fNbOxxauBi
It's a shame that Memphis' best game of the season came down to the mistakes that have been haunting this team for the past two months. This would have been by far the biggest upset of the season Of the four games involving the Apollos decided by a touchdown or less, Memphis has played in two ... and lost both by a combined seven points.
Birmingham got to the playoffs the only way it knew how
With the Iron's 17-9 win over Atlanta on Sunday, the East playoff scene has been set. Orlando is the top seed and will host Birmingham in the playoff semis in April. While the Iron have rarely been the flashiest team, they completely overachieved preseason expectations by doing what they do best: playing great defense and special teams.
Indeed, that's precisely how Birmingham clinched its playoff spot on Sunday. The Iron had almost no offense to speak of with just 177 yards at 2.9 yards per play. However, the defense held the Legends to 266 yards at 4.5 yards per play -- certainly good enough to win. And easily the biggest play of the game was the goal-line stand in the third quarter that would have given Atlanta the lead. Atlanta may be the worst offensive team in the Alliance, but for the Iron to have that kind of day without cornerback Jamar Summers, arguably the team's best player, is impressive all the same.
.@aafiron defense stops Atlanta on 4th and goal ‼️ #ATLvsBHM
— The Alliance (@TheAAF) March 31, 2019
Watch live: https://t.co/xoJ2fiq0hy pic.twitter.com/l3vL0i2K2f
It'll be interesting to see how Birmingham matches up with Orlando over the coming weeks. It's the ultimate clash of styles between a team that loves to grind out a win vs. the higher-scoring Apollos. Orlando won the first meeting 31-14 in Week 5, but the two teams will meet again in Week 10 as a set-up for the semifinal playoff matchup the following week.
Orlando has looked mortal lately
It would be absurd to expect the Apollos to be perfect, but the AAF's top team through eight weeks has looked more human over the past few weeks. Yes, Orlando is 2-1 since the midway point in the season, but the vulnerabilities are visible. Orlando dropped its Week 6 home game to Arizona, playing its worst game of the season along the way. Then the Apollos were nearly upset on Saturday against Memphis in a sloppy, uncharacteristically heated game.
Moreover, quarterback Garrett Gilbert has thrown three picks in two of the past three games after not throwing a single one through the first half of the season. The defense has been giving up bigger plays and more points. Call it the wear and tear of the season, or opposing teams making adjustments, but it's something to keep an eye on as we get into the playoffs later in April. Now comes an interesting couple of weeks for Steve Spurrier's team. They don't need to win any more games to make a championship run, but you don't want to completely lay off the gas, either -- especially since they've played far from their best football lately.
Player of the Week
San Diego Fleet defensive back Ryan Moeller: The first player to be awarded this season on a losing team, you can't fault Moeller for San Diego's 8-3 loss to the Stallions. Moeller had three total takeaways: two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Two of those takeaways came inside the 5-yard line or at the goal line when the Stallions were on the verge of scoring. His other interception put the Fleet in good scoring position. Moeller was more Johnny on the spot than anything, but you can't deny his three takeaways kept his team in the game, even if the offense couldn't finish the job.