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Sportsbook insights for the MLB season and NFL futures
Plus, why the Philadelphia Phillies have sportsbooks scared and what to expect from the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers in 2024.
With the Major League Baseball season at the All-Star Break and a lull in the sports calendar, it’s a good time to address some nuggets from across the sports betting world.
Which teams have been the most profitable to bet on in baseball so far this season?
There are a couple of ways to answer this question, but the most relevant is probably to look at the run line. For those unfamiliar, in football, a different spread exists in every game (Chiefs -3 vs. Ravens, 49ers -10 vs. Patriots, etc.), but in MLB betting, it’s always set at 1.5 runs with varying juice. The favorite is -1.5 (meaning the team needs to win by two or more runs to cash the bet) and the underdog is +1.5.
So far this season, the Baltimore Orioles have been the most profitable team with a 52-44 record on the run line and a profit of $1,611 (based on a $100 wager every game). The Cincinnati Reds ($788) and Pittsburgh Pirates ($637) are the next two teams that have made bettors the most money. The worst team by far has been the Miami Marlins, who would have lost a bettor $2,950 on the run line betting every game this season.
In terms of the straight moneyline (team to simply win the game outright), the Cleveland Guardians ($1,340) and Philadelphia Phillies ($950) have been the best teams for bettors.
Which teams are sportsbooks hoping don’t win the World Series?
The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles are pretty high on that list for sportsbooks. One sportsbook manager told us last week that the “Phillies are our biggest liability, well into the six figures for the World Series.” He also noted that the Orioles have been a popular play before and during the season to win the AL East and the AL pennant. The Phillies (+450) are the biggest liability at BetMGM sportsbooks with 11% of all bets and more than 16% of the total dollars wagered in the World Series market, and the Orioles are the second-most bet team and second largest liability.
How bad are the New England Patriots expected to be this season?
The Patriots do indeed have the lowest win total in the NFL at 4.5 at sportsbooks, which certainly isn’t something you would’ve ever expected to hear during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era in New England. On top of that, the Patriots are currently not favored in a single game this season on the lookahead lines at DraftKings for the first time since 1960. Whether Jacoby Brissett starts at quarterback or No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye gets the ball, it’s likely to be a long season in New England. But hey, they’ve had a lot of winning in that region over the past few decades – we think they’ll be OK.
Will the Los Angeles Chargers continue their win total streak?
When you think of offensive talent, you tend to think of the Chargers. But do you think of success? Los Angeles has gone Under its win total in each of the past five seasons, which is the longest streak in the NFL. The Chargers have a win total of 8.5 this season at FanDuel Sportsbook, and despite bringing in new head coach Jim Harbaugh from the college ranks, where he won a title with the Michigan Wolverines last season, Los Angeles also lost Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. That’s a lot of offensive talent out the door for star QB Justin Herbert. Can Harbaugh and Herbert lead this team to nine wins or more?
