No. 21 Houston (11-1) travels to Nippert Stadium to take on No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0) in the 2021 AAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Both teams rank in the top three of the conference in multiple defensive categories. Cincinnati is first in scoring defense (15.8), while Houston is second (19.8). Picking up the win is priority No. 1 for the Bearcats, but they'll also look for style points as they try to become the first Group of Five program to make the College Football Playoff field. 

Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET. The latest Cincinnati vs. Houston odds from Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bearcats as 10.5-point favorites. The over-under for total points is set at 52.5, down 3.5 points from the opening line. Before locking in any Houston vs. Cincinnati picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Cincinnati and just locked in its AAC Championship Game prediction and best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Cincinnati vs. Houston:

  • Houston vs. Cincinnati spread: Cincinnati -10.5 
  • Houston vs. Cincinnati over-under: 52.5 points 
  • Houston vs. Cincinnati money line: Houston +330, Cincinnati -430 
  • CINN: Bearcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record 
  • HOU: Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog

Why Cincinnati can cover

The Bearcats have one of the best defenses in the AAC. They are second in yards allowed per game (303.3) and first in points allowed (15.8). There are three players on this unit with at least nine tackles for loss. Linebacker Joel Dublanko leads the team with 99 total tackles, including 52 solo. Dublanko is third on the team in tackles for loss (9) and sacks (3.5).

Linebacker Darrian Beavers is tied for second on the team in stops with 80. Beavers is also second on the squad in tackles for loss (10) and sacks (4). The Ohio native recorded a tackle for loss in seven of the first eight games of the year. Defensive lineman Curtis Brooks has logged 46 total tackles. He is first on the team with 11 tackles for loss and six sacks as well. Cincinnati will look to hold its opponent to fewer than 20 points for the third straight week. 

Why Houston can cover

The Cougars are third in the conference in scoring (35.5) and sixth in total yards per game (422). Junior quarterback Clayton Tune leads the group. Tune has completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,013 yards with 26 passing touchdowns. The Texas native struggled in the season opener against Texas Tech and threw four interceptions in the loss. Since then Tune has only tossed four interceptions. His best outing this season came against SMU. Tune went 27-of-37 for 412 yards and four passing touchdowns. 

Freshman running back Alton McCaskill has 162 carries for 844 yards with a conference-high 16 rushing touchdowns. McCaskill rushed for over 100 yards with at least two scores in three games this year. Sophomore receiver Nathaniel Dell is the leading pass-catcher for the Cougars. Dell is second in the conference in receiving yards (1,027) and tied for first in touchdowns (11). The Florida native has gone over 100 receiving yards in four matchups this year. This trio for Houston hopes to have a successful outing against a stingy Cincinnati defense. 

How to make Houston vs. Cincinnati picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 57 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Cincinnati vs. Houston pick at SportsLine

So who wins Houston vs. Cincinnati? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cincinnati vs. Houston spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.