One year ago when I released my post-draft update, the top four wide receivers were Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Cooper Kupp. Today, the top four is the same four guys in the same order. While wide receiver is generally viewed as a more stable position than running backs, that's still remarkable stability. But it hasn't applied to No. 5.
In the past calendar year Tee Higgins, D.J. Moore, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Garrett Wilson have all taken a turn at No. 5 in these rankings. All of them but Moore currently rank inside my top 11, so the shuffling probably isn't done yet. But with Aaron Rodgers finally confirmed to New York, Wilson is back in the five hole and should remain there until September.
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Wilson won't turn 23 until July and just produced an 83-1,103-4 season as a rookie catching passes from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler. Wilson earned a 23% target share and accounted for 27.3% of the team's receiving yards. While the four touchdowns were disappointing, they also accounted for 26.6% of the team's receiving touchdowns. In other words, he was an alpha as a 22-year-old rookie. Now he has a year of experience, and he's getting Rodgers.
Any sort of ceiling projection for Wilson needs to account for the fact that the last time Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett were together, Davante Adams saw a 29.5% target share. While it's not fair to compare Wilson to Adams --yet-- it should be noted that as long as Wilson gets on the same page with his new QB, he should see an increase in target share. Assuming that comes with an increase in efficiency, Wilson certainly has top-five upside in redraft. If he hits that this year, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson will be the only wide receivers ranked ahead of him in Dynasty. In other words, buying Wilson at a cost of WR5 doesn't necessarily mean buying him at his upside.
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Here are my updated Dynasty wide receiver rankings: