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USATSI

No matter what format you're playing in, the 11th pick in a draft gives you an excellent chance to land one of the two verified difference makers at the tight end position. And if you're using my rankings, that's exactly what you'll be encouraged to do. 

In this particular draft, I started with Travis Kelce at pick 11, but if Kelce had been gone I quite likely would have taken Mark Andrews at pick 14. Last year Andrews outscored Kelce by one point per game, but they both outscored TE6 (Darren Waller) by more than four points per game and TE12 (Kyle Pitts) by six points per game. the year before, Kelce's edge was even bigger but even Andrews, in a down year, finished as TE4 more than a point per game better than the average starter.

Both Kelce and Andrews saw their No. 1 wide receiver traded away, which could lock in an even bigger target share than they're used to, and they've been the kings of opportunity at the position as it is. But whether you take a shot on them may be more determined by how you feel about Pitts making a leap this year or Darren Waller or George Kittle maintaining in seemingly worse circumstances.

Pick-by-pick 0.5-PPR strategy1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

For my money, especially from the back of the draft, I'd rather lock in one of the consensus top-two options.

Here's the rest of my team from the 11th pick:

1.11 Travis Kelce, TE Chiefs
2.02 Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
3.11 Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
4.02 David Montgomery, RB, Bears
5.11 Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears
6.02 Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings
7.11 Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles
8.02 Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
9.11 Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
10.02 Nico Collins, WR, Texans
11.11 Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears
12.02 Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Giants
13.11 Kyle Philips, WR, Titans
14.02 Alec Pierce, WR, Colts
15.11 Boston Scott, RB, Eagles

Aaron Jones in Round 2 was maybe the easiest picks in the draft for me. If Kelce had been gone, I may have taken Jones in Round 1. He's been phenomenal with Davante Adams off the field and I believe he has a sneaky chance to lead both the Packers and all running backs in receptions. If he does that, he'll be a top-five running back with the upside to finish No. 1 anywhere where catches count. 

I probably would have taken another receiver in Round 4 if this was a full PPR league, but David Montgomery should be a Round 3 pick based on volume alone and I would expect more efficiency rushing alongside Justin Fields. There has been some talk of Khalil Herbert taking a larger role, but preseason usage did not seem to indicate that.

The weakness of this squad is at wide receiver -- more on a few of them below -- which is why I went crazy on rookie wideouts in the double-digit rounds. The one I took right before that turn has the most upside, Treylon Burks. Burks has had a pretty miserable offseason but he still has elite playmaking ability. Just have patience when you draft him and hope for a finish like A.J. Brown. if this team gets that type of finish, we'll be very tough to beat in the second half.

Favorite pick

Tom Brady
TB • QB • #12
CMP%67.5
YDs5316
TD43
INT12
YD/Att7.39
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I have Brady projected as my No. 6 quarterback, but less than a point per game behind Justin Herbert for No. 2 overall. He still has one of the best receiving corps in football and he's still expected to lead the league in pass attempts. The offensive line is a bit of a concern, but this is not a quarterback who holds the ball anyway. Last year Brady was only half a point behind Josh Allen on a per-game basis. He's one of the only pocket passers with QB1 overall upside.

Pick I might regret

Darnell Mooney
ATL • WR • #11
TAR140
REC81
REC YDs1055
REC TD4
FL0
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I rank Mooney as a low-end No. 2 wide receiver worth a pick in Round 5, so I don't believe I will regret this. But that's because I project a more efficient year than he had last year and certainly more touchdowns. That's partially because Matt Nagy is gone and partially because Justin Fields should be better in Year 2. But if Mooney doesn't take a step forward, I could absolutely regret taking Mooney over guys like DK Metcalf, Jerry Jeudy, and Marquise Brown. Or, if Lamar Jackson breaks Fantasy football again, I'll regret not taking him.

Player who could make or break my team

Mike Williams
NYJ • WR • #81
TAR129
REC76
REC YDs1146
REC TD9
FL0
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Williams was one of the best wide receivers in the league the first five weeks of 2021. Only Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill scored more Fantasy points than him. Over the next five weeks, nearly everyone scored more Fantasy points than him as he combined for 10 catches and 137 yards across four games. I believe that was largely due to a knee injury, because Williams finished the year as a solid No. 2 wide receiver over the middle of the season. If he approaches that early-season form this year, then this team is one of the best in the league. If he returns to what he was before 2021, I may not have a top-24 wide receiver on my roster.