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USATSI

Before you draft anybody at sixth overall, you need to decide how much you love Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson.

If you think Kupp will be as good as he was in 2021, you should target him here. If you think Kupp will regress, you can't take him at sixth, but you might take Jefferson if you think he'll be as good or better than he was in 2021. If you think Jefferson won't be better than he was, then you can't take him either. 

If you don't like either receiver, be ready to take a running back. Sixth overall is fertile ground for Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook. Given the stat productivity they're each capable of delivering each week, they're really good picks.

Pick-by-pick 0.5-PPR strategy1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

That's the direction I went in from the sixth spot, but I didn't have a choice because Kupp and Jefferson went fourth and fifth overall.

Here's the team: 

1.06: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
2.07: Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers
3.06: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
4.07: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
5.06: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
6.07: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs
7.06: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
8.07: Drake London, WR, Falcons
9.06: Trey Lance, QB, 49ers
10.07: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
11.06: Russell Gage, WR, Buccaneers
12.07: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers
13.06: Dawson Knox, TE, Bills
14.07: Justin Fields, QB, Bears
15.06: Zay Jones, WR, Jaguars

Henry was a no-brainer; you can read about it below. I had every intention of finding a receiver in Round 2 and could have had Tyreek Hill, but I thought Fournette was the best Fantasy player available. I can't shake the 17.3 PPR points per game production he had last year, tied for fourth-best, and I don't think he really loses much of that role in the Bucs offense. I figured I'd find a great receiver in Round 3. 

And I did with Evans. Normally I wouldn't even flinch at taking a guy you could set your watch to like Evans given his touchdowns with Tom Brady and consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. But I did take Fournette first. I'm often asked whether it's bad to take a running back and a receiver from the same team. Generally it isn't great, but in the case of the Buccaneers, I think it's fine. In this specific case, either Fournette or Evans had at least 18 PPR points in 10 of 17 games, and when they played together they both had at least 14 full-PPR points six times out of 15 matchups. I wish the latter were higher, but I don't regret that pick.

I went ahead and locked in the all-Senior squad by taking Michael Thomas in Round 4. How does it feel to have four players all 27 or older with my first four picks? About as good as this prune juice will taste before my afternoon nap before Matlock. Seriously, if this were a Dynasty league I'd freak out. It's not. It's redraft and the age issues don't bug me as much. 

I did a pretty miserable job ignoring running backs after Round 6. But in our mock, no one took Kenyan Drake or Jerick McKinnon. There's no question I'd dump Jones and Knox for those two just to safeguard against calamity for Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire. That's the bad news -- the good news is that unless my running backs all go down with injuries, I should be set because I spent up for backs through the first four rounds. 

Favorite pick

Derrick Henry
BAL • RB • #22
Att219
Yds937
TD10
FL0
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Everyone's too wrapped up in Henry's lack of catches and return from a broken foot. Meanwhile, he's been a top-four PPR running back on a per-game basis in each of the past three seasons. He's an absolute beast of a back who is locked into a large role, and he might even offer a hint at 35 receptions based on what he did in eight games in 2021 (18 receptions). The foot injury is a non-issue as he's been cutting and running on it since January. And his absence in 2021 is positive for 2022 because he's coming off a season with 257 touches, not 400-plus. And besides, he's still running in the AFC South six times this season. I would have taken him as high as second overall, that's how sure I am in Henry.

Pick I might regret

Michael Thomas
NO • WR • #13
TAR0
REC0
REC YDs0
REC TD0
FL0
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On August 6, Thomas was working in full team drills. On August 21, Thomas was sidelined with a hamstring injury, with reports soon after saying it wasn't considered serious. An early September report said Thomas is still expected to start Week 1. There's elevated risk with Thomas because his legs may not hold up for every single game, and the changes New Orleans made at receiver and quarterback could certainly be impactful. I'm hopeful Thomas remains dominant in terms of target share and touchdowns, making him among the select No. 2 wideouts with upside to finish in the top-12. If I'm wrong, my receivers will be pretty heinous. 

Make or break player

Leonard Fournette
BUF • RB • #5
Att180
Yds812
TD8
FL0
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I'm counting on the big fella to stay productive with the Buccaneers. If he doesn't, this pick will come back to haunt me in many ways because I could have taken a receiver and freed up my other picks. Then again, if Fournette is right, combining him with Henry should result in a fantastic anchor all season. This team rides with him.