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USATSI

I'm expecting Aaron Jones to miss the next two weeks with a sprained MCL. We've seen teams be more cautious with injuries this season, and the Packers have a bye in Week 13, so it only makes sense that they wouldn't rush him back next week. That means that A.J. Dillon may just be the best running back in Fantasy over the next two weeks.

The second-year back saw 23 touches last week and could be used in a similar way until Jones returns. This Packers offense generated 32.4 running back opportunities (carries plus targets) in 2020 and has been right around 30 per game this season. The Packers are already without their No. 3 back, Kylin Hill, which means Patrick Taylor will be the back to spell Dillon. 

This is a situation very similar to the one with James Conner in Arizona except for two things. One, so far we've only seen Conner with a backup quarterback, and two Dillon is a much better athlete than Conner. Dillon ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 247 pounds, which is closer to Derrick Henry than anyone I can remember.

That type of athleticism in this type of offense could absolutely lead to Dillon being the No. 1 back in Fantasy in Week 11, but there is a case for selling, especially if you've already locked up a playoff spot. The Packers still have their bye left and Jones is currently only expected to miss one or two weeks. That means you're likely only getting two games of Dillon. As remarkable as those two games might be, if you could turn him into someone who could win weeks for you in the playoffs, that's probably the right move. 

As for the Jones' Fantasy managers, I'll have replacement options for you below. 

Let's get to the rest of the Week 11 RB Preview:

Week 11 RB Preview
RB Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 11 at this time. Here's what it means:

Who's Out
Projections powered by Sportsline
ATL Atlanta • #84
Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman will chop up the touches in Atlanta, but they are unlikely to be as productive as Patterson.
GB Green Bay • #33
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
A.J. Dillon is a must-start running back
RB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 10.9 -- A.J. Dillon has averaged 10.9 yards per target on 20 career targets. That's not sustainable, but that type of success should earn Dillon plenty of targets.
  • 36 -- D'Andre Swift had 36 touches in his first game with Dan Campbell calling offensive plays.
  • 1 -- Ronald Jones played one snap in Week 10.
  • 55% -- Rhamondre Stevenson played 55% of the snaps in Week 10. Damien Harris has only played more than 55% once this season.
  • 17 -- Javonte Williams leads all running backs with 17 broken tackles. This would be a good week to try to buy low on him.
  • 20.8 -- Mark Ingram topped 20 PPR Fantasy points without Alvin Kamara. He's a must-start back as long as Kamara is out.
  • 6 -- It's been six weeks since Saquon Barkley has played football. I wouldn't expect a full workload in his first game back.
  • 24 -- Antonio Gibson's 24 carries were a season-high. Apparently he got healthy over the bye week.
RB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
NE New England • #38
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ ATL NE -6.5 O/U 47
OPP VS RB
29th
PROJ PTS
15.1
RB RNK
11th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
236
REC
11
REYDS
111
TD
3
FPTS/G
10.3
MIA Miami • #37
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NYJ MIA -3 O/U 45
OPP VS RB
32nd
PROJ PTS
12.2
RB RNK
18th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
344
REC
38
REYDS
202
TD
4
FPTS/G
11.5
WAS Washington • #24
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CAR CAR -3.5 O/U 43
OPP VS RB
5th
PROJ PTS
12
RB RNK
21st
YTD Stats
RUYDS
506
REC
19
REYDS
158
TD
6
FPTS/G
13
PHI Philadelphia • #24
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NO PHI -1.5 O/U 44
OPP VS RB
2nd
PROJ PTS
4
RB RNK
33rd
YTD Stats
RUYDS
211
REC
0
REYDS
0
TD
3
FPTS/G
13
TEN Tennessee • #7
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs HOU TEN -10.5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS RB
17th
PROJ PTS
7.3
RB RNK
36th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
59
REC
2
REYDS
48
TD
0
FPTS/G
6.4
NYG N.Y. Giants • #26
Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TB TB -11 O/U 50
OPP VS RB
10th
PROJ PTS
11.9
RB RNK
37th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
195
REC
14
REYDS
130
TD
3
FPTS/G
12.9
RB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 11 Adds
TEN Tennessee • #7
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs HOU TEN -10 O/U 44.5
OPP VS RB
17th
RB RNK
27th
ROSTERED
68%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
59
REC
2
REYDS
48
TD
0
FPTS/G
6.4
Both Foreman and Adrian Peterson could score against a bad Texans defense. But it's a revenge game for Foreman and he's looked the best in the two games they've played together, so I'd lean slightly towards him.
SF San Francisco • #30
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ JAC SF -6.5 O/U 45
OPP VS RB
8th
RB RNK
24th
ROSTERED
50%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
28
REC
0
REYDS
0
TD
0
FPTS/G
2.8
If Elijah Mitchell can't go this week then Wilson could be a mist-start running back.
Stash
MIN Minnesota • #31
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NE NE -6.5 O/U 47
OPP VS RB
24th
RB RNK
39th
ROSTERED
17%
YTD Stats
RUYDS
88
REC
1
REYDS
21
TD
0
FPTS/G
3
You don't have to squint that hard to see Gallman as the Falcons early-downs back and Patterson as the passing downs back down the stretch.
RB Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
GB Green Bay • #28
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ MIN GB -2.5 O/U 49
OPP VS RB
16th
PROJ PTS
8.8
RB RNK
12th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
421
REC
16
REYDS
196
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.4
They did adjust Dillon's price a little, but not near enough for him to be a stone cold lock as the chalk of the week. I'm not brave enough to fade him.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
ARI Arizona • #6
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ SEA ARI -2.5 O/U 50
OPP VS RB
31st
PROJ PTS
11.4
RB RNK
7th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
493
REC
13
REYDS
136
TD
12
FPTS/G
14.8
Conner was chalky last week, but now he's $200 more than Dillon and $300 less than Swift, both of whom should project better. The Seattle defense has improved, but I still like Conner's chances of getting into the end zone.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections

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