I'm expecting Aaron Jones to miss the next two weeks with a sprained MCL. We've seen teams be more cautious with injuries this season, and the Packers have a bye in Week 13, so it only makes sense that they wouldn't rush him back next week. That means that A.J. Dillon may just be the best running back in Fantasy over the next two weeks.
The second-year back saw 23 touches last week and could be used in a similar way until Jones returns. This Packers offense generated 32.4 running back opportunities (carries plus targets) in 2020 and has been right around 30 per game this season. The Packers are already without their No. 3 back, Kylin Hill, which means Patrick Taylor will be the back to spell Dillon.
This is a situation very similar to the one with James Conner in Arizona except for two things. One, so far we've only seen Conner with a backup quarterback, and two Dillon is a much better athlete than Conner. Dillon ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 247 pounds, which is closer to Derrick Henry than anyone I can remember.
That type of athleticism in this type of offense could absolutely lead to Dillon being the No. 1 back in Fantasy in Week 11, but there is a case for selling, especially if you've already locked up a playoff spot. The Packers still have their bye left and Jones is currently only expected to miss one or two weeks. That means you're likely only getting two games of Dillon. As remarkable as those two games might be, if you could turn him into someone who could win weeks for you in the playoffs, that's probably the right move.
As for the Jones' Fantasy managers, I'll have replacement options for you below.
Let's get to the rest of the Week 11 RB Preview:
Week 11 RB Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 11 at this time. Here's what it means:
Numbers to know
- 10.9 -- A.J. Dillon has averaged 10.9 yards per target on 20 career targets. That's not sustainable, but that type of success should earn Dillon plenty of targets.
- 36 -- D'Andre Swift had 36 touches in his first game with Dan Campbell calling offensive plays.
- 1 -- Ronald Jones played one snap in Week 10.
- 55% -- Rhamondre Stevenson played 55% of the snaps in Week 10. Damien Harris has only played more than 55% once this season.
- 17 -- Javonte Williams leads all running backs with 17 broken tackles. This would be a good week to try to buy low on him.
- 20.8 -- Mark Ingram topped 20 PPR Fantasy points without Alvin Kamara. He's a must-start back as long as Kamara is out.
- 6 -- It's been six weeks since Saquon Barkley has played football. I wouldn't expect a full workload in his first game back.
- 24 -- Antonio Gibson's 24 carries were a season-high. Apparently he got healthy over the bye week.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Both Foreman and Adrian Peterson could score against a bad Texans defense. But it's a revenge game for Foreman and he's looked the best in the two games they've played together, so I'd lean slightly towards him.
MIN Minnesota • #31
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
You don't have to squint that hard to see Gallman as the Falcons early-downs back and Patterson as the passing downs back down the stretch.
A.J. Dillon RB
GB Green Bay • #28
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
They did adjust Dillon's price a little, but not near enough for him to be a stone cold lock as the chalk of the week. I'm not brave enough to fade him.
James Conner RB
ARI Arizona • #6
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Conner was chalky last week, but now he's $200 more than Dillon and $300 less than Swift, both of whom should project better. The Seattle defense has improved, but I still like Conner's chances of getting into the end zone.
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