Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week, and is pushing to play in Week 5 against the Philadelphia Eagles. If he does, I'm starting both Kupp and his teammate Puka Nacua. They both possess WR1 upside, and I'm not leaving that on the bench. What is more interesting is what happens rest of season with the Rams duo.
There are a minimum of three ways I could see this playing out. Kupp could return and claim his 32% target share, leaving everyone else to fight for the scraps. Or, Nacua could be a legitimately great wide receiver who impacts Kupp's target share. And we have to at least acknowledge the possibility that Kupp is re-injured or never fully regains form. Three is the easiest to diagnose, Nacua would remain a top-12 wide receiver for the foreseeable future. The other two are more complicated.
In the scenario where Kupp comes back as himself and dominates targets, he's back in the WR1 conversation, Stafford is probably a low-end QB1, and Nacua is much more volatile. About 61% of the Rams targets have gone to wide receivers this year, only a slight downtick from last year's 64% mark. In this scenario there would be 29-32% left for Nacua to share with Tutu Atwell, Van Jefferson, and Ben Skowronek. That likely sets a hard cap around 20% for Nacua, with a projected floor around 15%. That's seven to eight targets a week, which probably makes him a boom-bust WR3 on a weekly basis.
What seems slightly more likely is that Kupp never gets back to 32% after what Nacua has shown. Kupp settling in around 25-27% could leave room for him to be a top-five Fantasy wide receiver while Nacua sticks in the top 20 as well. We've seen that before under Sean McVay, early in his time there with Kupp and Robert Woods.
While there are a lot of potential outcomes for Nacua, there are probably only two for Tutu Atwell. If Kupp and Nacua are both healthy, it's hard to see how Atwell will be anything more than a flex at best.
Here is the rest of the Week 5 WR Preview:
Week 5 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 5 at this time. Here's what it means:
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 38.2% -- Despite leaving Week 5 for a while with a shoulder injury, Davante Adams still leads the NFL with a 38.2% target share. He also leads the NFL with a 52.7% air yards share.
- 6 -- Nico Collins leads all wide receivers with six broken tackles. He's doing everything well right now.
- 1.3 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 1.3 ADOT ranks dead last among wide receivers.
- 18 -- Amari Cooper only has 18 yards of YAC on the season, at least partially because of his enormous 16.6 ADOT.
- 4.71 -- Brandon Aiyuk leads the league with a monstrous 4.71 yards per route run. No other player is above four.
- 33.9% -- Rashee Rice has been targeted on 33.9% of the routes he's run. He;'s easily the most promising Chiefs wide receiver right now.
- 24.5% -- Christian Kirk leads the Jaguars with a 24.5% target share on the season. Calvin Ridley ranks third, also behind Evan Engram.
- 26.8% -- Wan'Dale Robinson leads the Giants with a 26.8% TPRR. His 1.49 YPRR is also the best on the team, minimum 10 targets. If you want to bet on one Giants wide receiver, he's the guy to bet on.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
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WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
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WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 5. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
