Though he certainly did not need a walk-off eagle on Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Classic to be considered the favorite for this week's 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, it probably didn't hurt Dustin Johnson. Not one bit. D.J. reclaimed his No. 1 slot in the Official World Golf Rankings and goes into the second major of the season as a deserving favorite with a decent gap from the rest of the field.
He's followed closely by a host of other former major winners (including Tiger Woods) bent on keeping him from his second U.S. Open in three years, like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose.
There are a few numbers I like (more on those in a minute) and some fascinating Tiger prop bets you can make. Let's dig right in to the odds, props and lines for the 118th U.S. Open.
- Dustin Johnson: 8-1
It's a testament to exactly how good D.J. is that he's this big of a favorite in this deep of a field.
- Justin Rose: 14-1
- Justin Thomas: 14-1
- Rory McIlroy: 14-1
- Jason Day: 16-1
- Rickie Fowler: 18-1
- Jordan Spieth: 18-1
- Jon Rahm: 18-1
- Tiger Woods: 22-1
- Brooks Koepka: 25-1
The usual suspects here. I love Spieth at 18-1 (an absurd number for somebody as good as he is) as well as Fowler and Day (seven top 10s in the last five U.S. Opens from that duo).
- Hideki Matsuyama: 33-1
- Phil Mickelson: 28-1
- Henrik Stenson: 33-1
- Branden Grace: 33-1
- Patrick Reed: 45-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 40-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 40-1
Great value for Fleetwood and possibly Reed. Taking Mickelson at 25-1 is fantastic and possibly a bargain for somebody with two top-five finishes here. It would also be an irresponsible thrill ride.
Odds I love
- Sergio Garcia: 50-1
- Patrick Cantlay: 60-1
- Alex Noren: 66-1
- Brandt Snedeker: 100-1
Garcia and Cantlay are great takes for the talent alone. Garcia has made his last five cuts (one of only two golfers to do that), and even though he hasn't had a great year, I trust the ball-striking. Snedeker is one of just four golfers with top 10s in three of the last five U.S. Opens (Fowler, Johnson, Day).
Who will win the 2018 U.S. Open, and which long shots are set to stun the golfing world? Find out by visiting SportsLine now to see the U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed four of the last five majors heading into the weekend.
Tiger Woods props
Will Tiger Woods make cut at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: -500 | No: +325)
He will, but the right play here is probably "no."
Will Tiger Woods win the 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +1600 | No: -2000)
Will Tiger Woods finish in the top 5 at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +550 | No: -750)
Will Tiger Woods finish in the top 10 at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +230 | No: -300)
Of all the "where he'll finish" props, I think this one holds the most value. Similar field a month ago at The Players, and Woods finished T11.
Will Tiger Woods finish in the top 20 at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +130 | No: -170)
Will Tiger Woods hit fairway on opening tee shot (Round 1) at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: -145 | No: +115)
Will Tiger Woods shoot under par in Round 1 at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +120 | No: -150)
Will Tiger Woods finish tournament under par at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: -105 | No: -125)
"No" is definitely the play here.
Tiger Woods highest score on any hole at 2018 U.S. Open (Over 7.5: -110 | Under 7.5: -120)
Will Tiger Woods shoot 78 or worse in any round at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +200 | No: -250)
Which player will record lowest tournament score at 2018 U.S. Open? (Tiger Woods: -175 | Phil Mickelson: +130)
Mickelson is the play. If only because he might go 63-79 in the first two rounds.
Will Garrett Rank make the cut at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +1200 | No: -2500)
Rank is a NHL official who got through on sectional qualifying. "Yes" is fun, but it's incredibly unlikely that he makes the weekend. Still, what better bet to be on this week?
2018 U.S. Open Champion
I'd go with the stars group given the even odds here.
- D. Johnson/Spieth/McIlroy/Thomas/Day/Fowler/Rahm/Rose/Woods: -115
- Field (Any Other Player): -115
Winning score at 2018 U.S. Open
Even par is the right play. The three most recent U.S. Opens here have resulted in winners notching 4 under, even and 1 under.
- Under Par: -150
- Even Par: +600
- +1 to +2: +500
- +3 or higher: +400
Will there be a playoff at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: +300 | No: -400)
There probably will given that the USGA just instituted a new two-hole playoff. We haven't had one since 2008 when Woods went 18 with Rocco Mediate.
Will there be a hole-in-one at 2018 U.S. Open? (Yes: -125 | No: -105)
Lowest 18-hole score (not including playoff) at 2018 U.S. Open (Over 64.5: -110 | Under 64.5: -120)
Over, but that's probably the right number.
Highest 18-hole score (not including playoff) at 2018 U.S. Open (Over 86.5: -115 | Under 86.5: -115)
Last year, it was 84 on a (probably) easier Erin Hills course.