2018 Valero Texas Open odds: Picks from the same model that predicted Patrick Reed's Masters victory

The PGA Tour is heading to the challenging AT&T Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio this week for the 2018 Valero Texas Open. Sergio Garcia, the 2017 Masters champion, is the Vegas favorite at 14-1 after opening at 12-1. He's followed closely by Matt Kuchar and Charley Hoffman at 18-1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the Masters, predicting the career-defining victory for Patrick Reed entering the weekend. It also nailed the Masters and U.S. Open last year, calling wins for Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. Then, it was all over Jordan Spieth at the British Open from the start and predicted the 24-year-old's third major victory. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now that the field for the Texas Open is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the Texas Open: Zach Johnson, a 30-1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Johnson has been extremely successful at this tournament in years past. He won back-to-back titles in 2008 and '09 and will look to replicate that type of success this week.

Johnson had back-to-back top-10 finishes at the RSM Classic and QBE Shootout in November and December and finished 16th at the Valspar Championship last month. He's 21st on the PGA Tour in birdie average at 4.08, 22nd in scoring average at 70.117, and 28th in total driving efficiency at 70. Back him with confidence at TPC San Antonio.

Another surprise, Ryan Moore, one of the Vegas favorites, doesn't sniff the top 12. He's somebody to completely steer clear of at the Texas Open.

Moore has just one top-10 finish in his last five tournaments, a fifth-place run at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was cut at the Valspar Championship and finished 28th at the Masters. Moore is outside of the top 100 on the PGA Tour in both driving distance (285.5 yards, 177th) and birdie average (3.36, 147th).

Also, the model says five additional golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer will make a deep run at the Texas Open title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Valero Texas Open? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Texas Open projected leaderboard from the model that has nailed four of the past five majors heading into the weekend, and find out. 

Sergio Garcia 14-1
Matt Kuchar 18-1
Charley Hoffman 18-1
Luke List 20-1
Ryan Moore 20-1
Kevin Chappell 25-1
Adam Scott 25-1
Brendan Steele 25-1  
Billy Horschel 25-1
Zach Johnson 30-1 
Chesson Hadley 30-1  
Xander Schauffele 30-1  
Brandt Snedeker 30-1
Ollie Schniederjans 30-1  
Si Woo Kim 40-1
Jamie Lovemark 40-1
Ryan Palmer 40-1  
Beau Hossler 40-1
Jimmy Walker 40-1
Pat Perez 40-1

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