It's a smaller PGA Tour field this week, but it's a much larger purse and the field is stacked with stars for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The season's fourth designated event tees off Thursday outside Orlando, Fla., and the field for the second leg of the Florida swing looks much different than the first. World No. 1 Jon Rahm and the other two men who held that spot in February – Scottie Scheffler  and Rory McIlroy – headline the 120-player Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field. It's expected to be another tough test after Scheffler won last year by one stroke at 5-under par. The $20 million purse has brought out the best, with major champions like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick among the many stars. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 23 of the world's top 25 golfers.

Four golfers are priced shorter than 20-1 in Caesars Sportsbook's latest 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, led by Rahm at 7-1. McIlroy (19-2), Scheffler (11-1) and Max Homa (19-1) are the other favorites. Morikawa (21-1) and Thomas (20-1) also are among the top contenders in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field, while Fitzpatrick (28-1) and Spieth (41-1) are among the longshots. Before making any 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald.

After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. He is up more than 20 units this season, meaning a profit of over $2,000 for $100 bettors.

McDonald nailed the Farmers Insurance Open, backing Homa (25-1) as his top choice. The expert also just missed a massive 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. He hit another 25-1 shot at the Houston Open, taking Tony Finau to win. The expert finished the 2021-22 season up 42 units on his outrights, including a monster 250-1 payout on Hudson Swafford at The American Express. Anyone who follows McDonald's advice has been cashing in.

Now, McDonald has studied the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald's PGA picks and analysis.  

Top 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks

One shocking pick from McDonald: He is fading Thomas in his first appearance at Bay Hill since 2015. The two-time PGA champion barely cracked the top 50 that year (T-49) and has stayed away until now. He won a major last year, but his game has shown a lot of cracks. He ranks first in strokes gained around the green, and McDonald knows that is a huge benefit. But McDonald knows "inefficiencies in the other aspects of his game" will be tough to overcome at Bay Hill. Thomas is 207th in proximity to the hole this season and ranks 115th in strokes gained putting. 

On the other hand, Rahm hasn't shown many flaws on his stunning run of 10 straight top-10 finishes. Five of those were victories, including his last outing at the Genesis Invitational. He is averaging almost 18-under par in his five stateside events and leads the tour in scoring average. The Spaniard also leads in greens in regulation percentage (75.7%) and strokes gained total. Rahm will want to hang on to the No. 1 ranking for a while, and he has fixed his weaknesses. The 28-year-old ranks ninth in strokes gained putting and 22nd around the green, both weak points last season. See who he is backing at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks

McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational and has tabbed several longshots, including two who come in well over 80-1. One of these golfers "has been experiencing a massive resurgence," the expert says, and this course is right up his alley. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.

So which 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational players should you target or avoid? And which golfer in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field could bring a massive payday well over 80-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald's top prop picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023, all from the expert who is up more than $2,000 on his PGA Tour picks this season.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field, top contenders

See McDonald's picks, best bets and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +700
Rory McIlroy +950
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Max Homa +1900
Collin Morikawa +2100
Justin Thomas +2300
Xander Schauffele +2400
Will Zalatoris +2400
Tony Finau +2800
Patrick Cantlay +2800
Jason Day +3100
Viktor Hovland +3100
Tyrrell Hatton +3600
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3600
Sungjae Im +4100
Jordan Spieth +4100
Cameron Young +4600
Sam Burns +4800
Tom Kim +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
Keith Mitchell +5500
Chris Kirk +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Corey Conners +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7000
Keegan Bradley +7500
Adam Scott +8500
Billy Horschel +8500
Rickie Fowler +8500
Justin Rose +9000
Adam Hadwin +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Gary Woodland +9000
Min Woo Lee +11000
Luke List +11000
Taylor Montgomery +11000
Tom Hoge +12000
Wyndham Clark +12000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000
Aaron Wise +12000
Alex Noren +12000
Ryan Fox +13000
Si Woo Kim +13000
Lucas Herbert +14000
Nick Taylor +14000
Adrian Meronk +15000
Thomas Detry +16000
Russell Henley +16000
Brian Harman +17000
Beau Hossler +17000
Sepp Straka +18000
K.H. Lee +19000
J.J. Spaun +19000
Harris English +19000
Byeong Hun An +20000
Justin Suh +21000
Patrick Rodgers +21000
Taylor Pendrith +21000
Joel Dahmen +21000
Sam Ryder +21000
Taylor Moore +22000
Emiliano Grillo +22000
Kurt Kitayama +22000
Joseph Bramlett +23000
Danny Willett +23000
Ben Griffin +24000
Garrick Higgo +24000
Francesco Molinari +25000