Rory McIlroy has four top-10 finishes in his last five visits to Bay Hill Club and Lounge, and he will be hoping for another strong showing when the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational begins on Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET. McIlroy is 17-2 in the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, trailing only Scottie Scheffler (6-1) atop the PGA odds board. There are plenty of other exciting names in the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational field, as this is another signature event for the PGA Tour. Young star Ludvig Aberg (20-1) lacks experience at this course, but he did finish inside the top 25 at this tournament last year.

Meanwhile, Viktor Hovland (12-1) is trying to bounce back from disappointing results at Pebble Beach and Riviera. Which golfers should you include in your 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets? Before locking in your 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,700 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model included Hideki Matsuyama in its best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024: McIlroy, a 24-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. McIlroy won this event in 2018 after firing a 64 in the final round and he secured a T-2 finish at Bay Hill in 2023. However, he has struggled out of the gate in 2024, failing to crack the top-15 in his first three starts on the PGA Tour this season. 

McIlroy remains one of the best drivers on tour, but he's been inconsistent with every other aspect of his game this season. The 34-year-old enters this week's event ranked 173rd in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.868), 127th in putting average (1.791) and 147th in putts per round (30.00). He also ranks 151st in scoring average (70.43), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at Bay Hill this week.

Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 22-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Morikawa opened his 2024 season with a T5 at The Sentry, shooting 25-under-par to become the only golfer to finish in the top 10 each year from 2020 to 2024.

He has added a pair of top-20 finishes since then, posting a T14 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (-10) and a T19 at The Genesis Invitational (-6) in his latest tournament. Morikawa missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, but he recorded a T9 in 2020. He ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green and tenth in putting average, which are two reasons why the model likes him to make a run this weekend. See who else to pick here

How to make 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors, including last year's Masters and Open Championship.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field

See the full Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler +600
Rory McIlroy +850
Viktor Hovland +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Ludvig Åberg +2000
Jordan Spieth +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Sam Burns +2200
Justin Thomas +2200
Max Homa +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Cameron Young +3300
Will Zalatoris +3500
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Jason Day +4500
Adam Scott +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
Sungjae Im +5500
Tom Kim +5500
Wyndham Clark +5500
Sahith Theegala +6000
Russell Henley +6500
J.T. Poston +7000
Eric Cole +7500
Corey Conners +7500
Chris Kirk +7500
Si Woo Kim +7500
Keegan Bradley +8000
Nicolai Højgaard +8000
Harris English +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Byeong Hun An +8000
Stephan Jaeger +9000
Adam Hadwin +9000
Jake Knapp +9000
Shane Lowry +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Matthieu Pavon +11000
Tom Hoge +11000
Luke List +11000
Adam Svensson +12000
Denny McCarthy +12000
Emiliano Grillo +12000
Brendon Todd +12000
Rickie Fowler +12000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12000
Andrew Putnam +12000
Patrick Rodgers +12000
Cam Davis +15000
Sepp Straka +15000
Lucas Glover +17000
Nick Taylor +17000
Brian Harman +20000
Mark Hubbard +25000
Adam Schenk +25000