How does one go about winning the Masters? It's a question that occupies the space in many minds, professional golfers most of all. Thankfully, for those of us not playing in the actual tournament, there's a fairly objective and straightforward answer: You hit wonderful approach shots for 72 straight holes.
We can talk about the importance of putting and how one needs to have good hands around those greens, or about how relatively easy it is to play out of the first cut at Augusta National so longer, wilder drivers can find success.
But here's the cold reality for all the non-flushers out there: Seven of the last nine Masters winners have been in the top six for the week in approach play. You have to hit the hell out of it, and you have to be disciplined about how you do it. Sometimes, that means green lights right at those lovely yellow flags. Sometimes, it might mean playing so far away from the hole that it looks like you're aiming off the green.
Regardless, to stay disciplined for 72 consecutive holes at Augusta with your irons is an extremely difficult task.
Though behind-the-scenes numbers show that Jordan Spieth has largely been the best iron player at that golf course over the last 10 or so years, there has only been official tracking of individual strokes gained categories for the last three years at Augusta National.
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Here are those official numbers on approach play, according to Data Golf, for the last three years (minimum eight rounds played).
Your leader? Well, there is no surprise.
| Rank | Player | Rounds | SG Approach |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Scottie Scheffler | 12 | 1.54 |
2 | Marc Leishman | 8 | 1.35 |
3 | Corey Conners | 10 | 1.33 |
4 | Si Woo Kim | 12 | 1.24 |
5 | Cameron Smith | 12 | 1.18 |
6 | Collin Morikawa | 12 | 1.11 |
7 | Hideki Matsuyama | 12 | 1.05 |
8 | Sergio Garcia | 8 | 0.87 |
9 | Tony Finau | 12 | 0.83 |
10 | Xander Schauffele | 10 | 0.79 |
There are some fascinating names on that list. Matsuyama and Schauffele have been two of the better players on the PGA Tour so far this year. Matsuyama won the Genesis Invitational in February, and both threatened to win the Players Championship in March.
Others have struggled. Morikawa missed two early cuts and does not have a top 10 anywhere since The Sentry in January. Corey Conners has been hitting it pretty good, but going into the Houston Open, he had one fewer top 10 than Morikawa does so far this year.
There are some unknowns. Cameron Smith has been mostly good on LIV Golf; Sergio Garcia has been up and down. Are either sharp enough to win a second major championships?
Speaking of LIV, it has thrown a huge wrench into how this data is accumulated and evaluated. Though overall strokes gained can be found without lasers and technology -- because it's just your score relative to those from everyone else -- specific categorical strokes gained data requires that technology. LIV apparently has it but is choosing not making the numbers public yet. So, though I believe Joaquin Niemann and Jon Rahm should probably be on the current list of best approach play golfers in 2024, they aren't because we just don't have the numbers.
Here's that list (going into the Houston Open). It only includes players who are in the Masters and have at least 10 measured rounds.
2024 worldwide SG approach
| Rank | Player | Measured Rounds | SG Approach |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Scottie Scheffler | 24 | 1.54 |
2 | Shane Lowry | 20 | 1.04 |
3 | Justin Thomas | 20 | 1.00 |
4 | Wyndham Clark | 22 | 0.98 |
5 | Corey Conners | 30 | 0.93 |
6 | Will Zalatoris | 16 | 0.93 |
7 | Cameron Young | 34 | 0.91 |
8 | Nick Taylor | 31 | 0.85 |
9 | Tony Finau | 25 | 0.84 |
10 | Lucas Glover | 26 | 0.80 |
Ah, Scheffler. If you blindly look at both this year's statistics and recent history at Augusta, he is the obvious choice to win this tournament by, like, 15 shots. It's a true "Scottie or the field" situation. Just look at his rankings.
- SG approach at Augusta (last three years): 1st
- SG tee to green at Augusta (last three years): 1st
- Total SG at Augusta (last three years): 2nd (Will Zalatoris is 1st)
- SG approach worldwide since Jan. 1: 1st
- SG tee to green worldwide since Jan. 1: 1st
- Total SG worldwide since Jan. 1: 1st
Outrageous stuff. How does one not pick him to win this event?
The reality is that Scheffler is unlikely to win. Even amid his recent hot streak since the beginning of 2022, he has only won around 20% of the time. An outrageous number for golf, but still one that means 80% of the time somebody else has held the trophy.
And if the best player this year (and of the last several years) is not the guy wearing green on Sunday at the Masters, the rest of the players on these two lists should be considered extremely good candidates to do so.
