It's not often we play "Monday Night Football" at a neutral site, but that's what's happening here in Week 13. Tonight, the Buffalo Bills (8-3) and San Francisco 49ers (5-6) face off under the lights in Arizona. Recently Santa Clara County implemented new restrictions that forced the 49ers to find a new NFL home. Their divisional rivals in the Arizona Cardinals obliged, and here we are. See? Even rivals are helping each other out during these unprecedented times.
The Bills are coming off of a 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, but they are now set to return to the scene of the most heartbreaking loss they suffered this season. Back in Week 10, the Cardinals and Kyler Murray pulled off the "Hail Murray" to escape with a win, so it remains to be seen if the Bills will enter State Farm Stadium hell-bent on revenge, or if the defense has to overcome a sort of mental block after what happened to them last time. As for the 49ers, they pulled off a gutsy 23-20 victory over the Los Angeles Rams despite missing several important players due to injury. This team isn't out of the playoff race just yet, and you certainly don't want to overlook them.
The all-time series between the Bills and 49ers is tied at six apiece, but the 49ers have won two out of the past three. Below, we will get you caught up on the most intriguing betting angles to get you locked in before kickoff.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
This line reopened at Bills -3 last Sunday night, but fell to a pick'em by Thursday. William Hill then had the 49ers as one-point favorites on Saturday, but that line then fell back to a pick'em on Sunday night. On Monday morning, however, San Francisco was again a one-point favorite.
The pick: Bills (+1). The Bills have some things going for them, as they rebounded from their Week 10 loss to the Cardinals by defeating the Chargers by double digits. Buffalo has scored at least 27 points in its last three games, while the 49ers have only scored over 20 points once with Mullens under center over the last three weeks. It was enough to defeat the Rams last Sunday, but I don't think the 49ers can keep up with the Bills on the scoreboard. Buffalo has covered in each of its last three games, and I think they make it four straight on Monday night.
The total has not experienced as much movement as the line has. Last Sunday, it reopened at 48.5, but fell to 47 by Monday morning, and then received a bit of a bump to 47.5 at around 10:30 a.m. ET.
The pick: Over 47.5. I'm leaning towards the Over because SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is leaning that way as well. SportsLine's game projection for this matchup has been hovering around 50 total points, so I'll put my money on that and root for some scoring.
- O/U 23.5 completions
- O/U 269.5 passing yards
- O/U 30.5 rushing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns (Under +110)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +105)
- O/U 36.5 pass attempts
I think there's value on the Unders when it comes to completions and passing attempts for Allen, but I'm more confident in the Under on completions. We know he's a gunslinger, but that doesn't apply in a game where the Bills control the tempo. In last week's 10-point win over the Chargers, Allen completed just 18 of 24 passes for 157 yards, one touchdown and one interception. I have no read for Allen's passing touchdowns prop, so I'll probably stay away from that one.
- O/U 22.5 completions
- O/U 247.5 passing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +120)
- O/U 34.5 pass attempts
Mullens has attempted at least 35 passes in each of his last three starts, so the Over on that 34.5 line could have some value. The same goes for the Over on Mullens' passing yards, as he has thrown for at least 247 yards in his last three starts. The way I figure, Mullens will hit the Over on most of these props if the Bills jump out to an early lead. If this is a close game throughout, the 49ers will be able to rely on Raheem Mostert and Co. to move the ball down the field. Obviously that could potentially hurt your chances if you're betting on Mullens having a big game. I have no read on Mullens' passing touchdowns prop, as he has not thrown for more than one touchdown in any start this season.
Other props to consider
Devin Singletary total rushing yards: Over 34.5 (-115). Singletary has been pretty unpredictable this season. Against the Cardinals, he will rush for a total of 15 yards on four carries, but then he racks up 82 yards on the ground last week against the Chargers. Against Los Angeles, Buffalo racked up 172 rushing yards -- which was the team's second-most yards recorded on the ground in any one game this season. The run game was working for them, and while the 49ers have a top 10 rush defense, I think Singletary can surpass 34 rushing yards.
Deebo Samuel total receiving yards: Over 52.5 (-140). Welcome back Deebo Samuel! The versatile offensive weapon caught 11 of his 13 targets for 133 yards in his return to the field, and I think this line is too low. Samuel is a go-to receiver and should be treated as one.
Tyler Bass total made extra points: Over 2.5 (+115). People aren't always excited to bet on players props when it comes to kickers, but I have found success doing so and I love this one in particular. To me, this line is "can the Bills score three touchdowns." I'm going to say yes, plus the Over is juiced -- which has me even more excited. If you're worried about Bass potentially missing an extra point, he has missed just one of his 33 attempts this season. Additionally, he has converted on at least three extra points over the last four games.