joe-burrow.jpg
Getty Images

So much for the idea of getting out from under a bad week with a good one.

Make it two bad ones in a row.

Last week wasn't quite as bad as the week before, so there is progress. But calling 5-9-2 against the spread progress tells you how awful I was the week before. I did go 9-7 straight up and 3-2 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. That brings my season record ATS to 27-34-3, my straight-up record to 33-30-1 and my best bets record is now 13-9.

Let's shoot for .500 ATS this week. Baby steps. Baby steps.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have struggled in a lot of ways this season, going 1-2-1 with the heat on the coaching staff and front office. The health of running back Jonathan Taylor bears watching in this one. Even so, he hasn't been as effective. The Broncos have played well on defense, but their offense has struggled. At home, on a short week, Russell Wilson will find a way to win it.

Pick: Broncos 24, Colts 20

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8) (in London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

The Giants have major issues at quarterback with both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured. There is a chance Jones plays with a bum ankle, but it won't matter who plays. The Packers have played well on defense, and the offense has showed some signs of life lately. Packers take it.

Pick: Packers 31, Giants 21

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+) 

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a tough way for Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett to make his debut. The Bills do have injury issues on defense, but they still have a talented front that can make life miserable for Pickett. The Buffalo offense has slowed some the past two games, but this is a chance to get it going again. Look for Josh Allen to have a good day as the Bills spoil Pickett's debut.

Pick: Bills 33, Steelers 17

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers went on the road and beat the Texans last week, but this road trip will be a lot tougher. The Browns have struggled on defense this season, which could be a good thing for Justin Herbert. Look for the Chargers to play well again here as they get a tough road victory.

Pick: Chargers 27, Browns 21

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Jaguars are coming off a sloppy loss against the Eagles that they let get away after leading 14-0. The Texans played well in coming back against the Chargers, but this is a tough trip against a team that will be ready to get back on track. Look for a better showing by Trevor Lawrence as the Jaguars win it.

Pick: Jaguars 30, Texans 21

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have been lifeless in terms of their passing game, which limits what they can do -- as we saw last week on the road in a loss to the Giants. The Vikings played in London last week, so they had to deal with the long trip. But they are a much better team. The Minnesota defense hasn't played that well this season, but that changes here.

Pick: Vikings 24, Bears 10

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions are scoring a ton, but they can't stop anybody. They might get a break if they face Bailey Zappe at quarterback for the Patriots. But the way the Lions are playing, it won't matter. The Patriots will still move the football. New England will win a close one.

Pick: Patriots 24, Lions 20

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are playing a second consecutive road game outside the division, which is always a challenge. The Saints are playing after traveling back from London, which won't be easy. The Saints haven't come close to playing up to expectations this season, but this is a perfect spot for their defense to rise up and win a game. I think they do. Saints take it.

Pick: Saints 26, Seahawks 17

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater for an injured Tua Tagovailoa, who has concussion issues. Bridgewater is more than capable. The Jets have played better lately and Zach Wilson did some good things at Pittsburgh. Look for the Jets to continue to have momentum here as they pull off the upset.

Pick: Jets 24, Dolphins 23

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

This is a big game for first place in the division. That's hard to believe. But the Falcons have played better than expected, while the Bucs have not played that well. But this could be a get-right spot for the Bucs. Look for the offense to roll and the defense to bounce back.

Pick: Bucs 34, Falcons 20

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (+2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Tennessee Titans

The Commanders have lost three straight and their season might be on the line here. They get a Titans team coming off a road division victory against the Colts. This could be a good spot for the Commanders to get a victory. The pressure is on and they get it. Upset special.

Pick: Commanders 28, Titans 24

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers

This is a long trip on a short week for the 49ers after they beat the Rams on Monday night. That would normally mean a letdown. But their defense will dominate the Carolina offense. Baker Mayfield will be in for a long day. This will be a low-scoring game, but the 49ers will win with their defense.

Pick: 49ers 21, Panthers 13

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are riding high as the last undefeated team, but this won't be an easy trip. The Cardinals seemed to right things last week in the second half against the Panthers. But this is a big step up in competition. Look for the Eagles to keep it rolling -- even with the Cowboys on tap next week.

Pick: Eagles 30, Cardinals 23

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Rams are playing on a short week and looked awful in losing to the 49ers on Monday night. The offensive line is bad, which is never a good thing against the Cowboys. Dallas has won all three games with Cooper Rush at quarterback, but that ends here. I think the Rams will find a way to limit Rush and the offense as Matthew Stafford finally gets it going on the other side.

Pick: Rams 27, Cowboys 21

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have turned their season around with two straight victories, mostly because the offense has started to play better. That's not a good thing for a Ravens defense that is struggling. Look for Joe Burrow to win a shootout here with Lamar Jackson. First one to 35 wins. It's the Bengals.

Pick: Bengals 36, Ravens 33

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are back home after a 1-1 road trip, but they looked great in beating the Bucs last Sunday night. The Raiders beat the Broncos for their first victory last week, but this is a tough trip to try and keep things going. The Chiefs have the offense back to being top level, which is not a good thing for the Raiders defense. Look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night.

Pick: Chiefs 33, Raiders 23