I absolutely love Week 2 of the NFL season.
Week 1 offers the chance for some nice profit if your analysis of the relative strengths and weaknesses around the league does a better job than the public perception. For instance, I wasn't as high as many people on the 49ers coming into the season and thought the Vikings offered great value at less than a TD, even pegging them as part of my teaser of the week in this space last week along with the Ravens (cha-ching). And I loved the Chiefs, betting on them to win their division at +320 odds, so I wasn't surprised they moved the ball at will against the Chargers. In all, my picks went 9-3-2 at SportsLine in Week 1.
Week 2 can be even more profitable as the books get ahead of the public overreaction to what they saw in Week 1. With nothing else to go on, many people will put much more importance on Week 1 than it deserves. If a 7-2 Saints team lost to the 3-6 Bucs in Week 11, would we even blink an eye, or would we chalk it up to one of those games that happens in every season?
You'll hear me refer to the "lookahead lines" a great deal this week. What that means is the Week 2 lines that were posted by Westgate before the early Sunday games in Week 1. Once the games start, those numbers become irrelevant, as the games get reposted with more or less the lines you're seeing out there now once the Week 1 action is in the books.
Those moves could be hugely relevant. The Dolphins were listed as 1.5-point favorites at the Jets during the day on Monday coming off a win against a Titans team perceived to be a bad matchup (Miami was a home 'dog for that one). After the Jets took it to the Lions, the line re-opened at Jets -3. While the Jets certainly impressed in their Monday night win, there's no way they did enough to swing this matchup 4.5 points in one week, not without any significant injuries. One of those lines was really wrong, and if you can figure out which and bet it at the right time, you can get incredible value.
If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on each game each week right here.
Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. That includes which lines are on the move, which home-field advantages aren't getting enough credit, which injuries you should be monitoring, my top teaser play of the week and plenty more.
Let's get to it.
My picks
Over at SportsLine, I've entered 10 Week 2 picks and likely have more on the way in the coming days. Join now and use promo code WHITE for $1 on your first month and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.
However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!
Biggest line moves
Colts at Redskins -6
Chargers -7 at Bills
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers
Lions at 49ers -6
Raiders at Broncos -6
Seahawks at Bears -3.5
These seven games saw line moves of at least 2.5 points based on what happened in Week 1, which is a ton of potential value. If you were to fade the overreaction in every case, more often than not you should come out ahead. Now, there are a few lines in this case where the new line is actually closer to where I thought it should have been all along, so I'm not necessarily autofading every huge move, but if I find myself on the same side as the overreaction, I'm probably just staying away from the game rather than playing it.
The Colts were 2.5-point dogs before losing a close game to the Bengals (and everyone loved Cincy, the top consensus pick in the SuperContest, anyway). Washington beat up on a Cardinals team most people now think is terrible. Are the Colts suddenly three points worse than Washington on a neutral field when those team were rated pretty much evenly going into Week 1?
The Chargers were 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line, and while you can understand why this moved so drastically, is it too much? I have the Bills as five-point home 'dogs based on my own ratings, so as hard as it is to take the Bills a week after they looked awful, that's where I think the value is.
The Eagles were 6-point favorites before the Bucs put up 48 on the Saints. If ugly Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up in this game, that lookahead line might end up making more sense.
The 49ers and Broncos were both three-point favorites heading into Week 1, so a few days ago the books thought both matchups were pretty even before home field is taken into account. The Broncos have a great home-field advantage and I was down on the Raiders anyway, so I think Broncos -6 might not even be far enough of a move.
Finally, the Bears were just one-point favorites before hanging with the Packers on Sunday night in front of a national audience. It will be interesting to see how they do in another primetime spot against a great quarterback after having their hearts ripped out by their rivals last week.
So who should you back in Week 1 of the NFL season? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons.
Home-field edges to know
Raiders at Broncos -6
Vikings at Packers (NL)
I mentioned the Broncos' home-field advantage above; they're one of a few teams that I give four points for home-field advantage. So it's worth taking the Broncos if you think they're more than two points better than the Raiders on a neutral field. I'll also note that the Broncos have lost just once at home in Weeks 1 and 2 this century. That makes them a fine play on teasers and moneyline parlays this week.
The Packers are also a great HFA team, but that comes with a caveat: Aaron Rodgers has to be on the field. Brett Hundley showed last year that the team's bigger home-field advantage than usual dries up when the backup is out there. If Rodgers plays and this ends up being a pick 'em or close to it, that home-field edge could definitely come into play.
The Cowboys have possibly the worst home-field advantage in the league, and my weighted home-field data actually makes them a better team on the road than at home. Their defense has played much better on the road in each of the last three seasons, while the offense was also slightly better on the road last year. I have nothing but theories as to why Dallas has such poor numbers at home, but they do. If the offense continues to struggle, the Giants could be a great value. I'm only giving the Cowboys 1.5 points for HFA, so they have to be 1.5 points better than the Giants for this line to make sense.
Other poor HFA teams where it could be a factor this week include the Buccaneers, Jaguars and Bengals.
Injuries to watch
Vikings at Packers (NL)
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Chargers -7 at Bills
Texans -2 at Titans
Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers' knee injury is obviously the biggest issue to track this week, but don't sleep on Davante Adams also missing Wednesday's practice due to injury issues. The books will wait to get some clarity on Rodgers to hang this line, but the Westgate sent out Vikings -7 for the SuperContest on Wednesday, which is where I'd have it if Rodgers doesn't play.
Ben Roethlisberger also didn't practice on Wednesday, but he sounds like he's in no danger of missing Week 2. Even the possibility of it happening is worth monitoring. The Steelers were also without several key defenders on Wednesday, while star safety Eric Berry remained sidelined for the Chiefs.
We monitored the Joey Bosa injury last week, and it turned out to be a big factor in the Chargers losing to the Chiefs. The Bills offensive line probably can't stop anyone, but they'll have an easier job of it if Bosa can't play for a second-straight week, which is looking likely at this point.
The Titans are dealing with a host of injuries, but Marcus Mariota was able to practice in full on Wednesday. He seems good to go for Week 2, but who knows if he'll have either of his starting tackles while also throwing to a new primary tight end. The defense at least got first-round pick Rashaan Evans back to practicing in full on Wednesday. The Texans listed nine players as limited on Wednesday, including their top two receivers and Jadeveon Clowney. Their Friday report will be crucial to playing this game.
The Bucs are dealing with a cluster of injuries at cornerback, with Brent Grimes still recovering from a groin issue and Vernon Hargreaves going on IR. It could be up to the rookies to deal with Nick Foles and the Eagles' passing game. Vita Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul also missed practice, as did DeSean Jackson. The Bucs are already pretty beat up for it being Week 2.
Fading the public
Chiefs at Steelers -4
Cardinals at Rams -12.5
Raiders at Broncos -6
If 80 percent of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. (All betting trends data from BetOnline via Vegas Insider.)
The Chiefs are getting 87 percent of the bets right now as people load up on what looks like could possibly be the best offense in the league. The Steelers conversely looked awful in a road tie against the Browns in Week 1. Remember last year when the Steelers got embarrassed at home against the Jaguars and couldn't stop turning the ball over? They went to Kansas City the next week and beat the Chiefs by six points.
The public loves the Rams coming off a big win after the Cardinals stunk things up on their home field in the opener. The Rams are getting 82 percent of the tickets in this matchup. Can the books make this line high enough for anyone to jump on the dog? The Raiders are in the same spot with the Broncos getting 83 percent of the action. That Rams-Raiders Monday night game is obviously still fresh in bettors' minds.
Lines I'd move
Colts at Redskins -6
Panthers at Falcons -6
Lions at 49ers -6
I explained during the preseason how I use power ratings to determine where I'd have the lines, and while I'm not automatically playing any line I perceive as value, that's at least the way I'm leaning while deciding whether or not it's worth a play. I think overreactions to Week 1 are playing a big part in inflated lines this week, but I wanted to highlight these three games in particular.
Look at the road team for each matchup, then look at the home team. Could you give concrete reasoning that one was better than the other heading into the season? Of the three, the only team I think should be laying more than three points is Washington, and even then, I wouldn't make them more than 3.5-point favorites. The preseason win total market had the Colts as half a game better! In the other two matchups, the home team at least was given one more win than the road team on their win totals.
Still, I think all these lines are about three points too high, and I think putting any of the home teams in a teaser this week is asking for trouble. Speaking of ...
Teaser of the Week
Broncos PK vs. Raiders
Saints -2.5 vs. Browns
I mentioned above that the Broncos are a great home team in Weeks 1-2 historically, with just one loss there since 1999. Since we can tease them down to a pick 'em, they're a fine option for one of our two legs of this teaser here. I'd make the Broncos a touchdown favorite in that game anyway, so we're also getting some extra line value.
Not many people expected the Saints to lose in Week 1, and I'd be absolutely shocked if they drop two home games against middling teams to open the season. If you tease them while they're still at -8.5, you can run through all the key numbers on your way to -2.5.
