The 2023 WNBA playoffs are underway, and every first round series is now through Game 1. As expected the higher seeds went undefeated -- largely in completely uncompetitive fashion -- and are now one win away from closing out their respective best-of-three series. At the same time, the lower seeds are one win away from forcing a deciding Game 3 back in their building.
That sets up what should be an interesting few days of action. The quartet of Game 2s will start on Sunday with the Connecticut Sun versus the Minnesota Lynx and the defending champion Las Vegas Aces against the Chicago Sky. Then, on Tuesday, the New York Liberty will face the Washington Mystics, while the Dallas Wings will take on the Atlanta Dream.
Will it go chalk, with Aces, Liberty, Sun and Dream moving on? Or will one of the Dream, Lynx Mystics or Sky stay alive and keep the first round going? Before we find out, here's a look at one adjustment the four teams down 0-1 can make in Game 2 to get a season-saving win.
Minnesota Lynx: Cut down on the turnovers
Coming into this series, one of the biggest storylines was the turnover battle. The Sun's defensive success in the regular season was predicated on forcing teams into mistakes, and they had an opponent turnover rate of 19.8% -- the best mark in the league -- which helped fuel their fastbreak game and get them easy baskets. Meanwhile, the Lynx had a 17.7% turnover rate, which was second-worst among all playoff teams, and were still without starting point guard Lindsay Allen due to a hand injury.
Any hope of pulling off an upset in this series started with taking care of the ball. Game 1 was a complete disaster on that front. It was immediately clear that the Sun's pressure was going to be a problem, and it soon became overwhelming. Most notably, the Sun were aggressive with trapping the ball-handler after screens.
But all game long, the Sun's activity, length and quick hands were just too much for the Lynx, who saw numerous passes deflected and had the ball stripped on drives. All told, the Lynx turned it over 19 times, which led to 30 points for the Sun -- the exact margin of the game. The Lynx will have to be much stronger with the ball in Game 2, but also make better decisions. As well as the Sun played, many of their turnovers were preventable.
Chicago Sky: Protect the paint
The Sky are at a major talent disadvantage here, so there's only so much they're going to be able to do. But if they want any hope of staving off elimination and forcing a Game 3 back in Chicago next week, they have to figure out some way to keep the Aces out of the paint.
Las Vegas didn't even have a great offensive effort in Game 1, but still won comfortably in large part because of 44 points in the paint and 17 free throw attempts. Chicago allowed more points in the paint per game (40.1) than any team in the league during the regular season, so that was always going to be an issue. Still, Vegas had it far too easy on Wednesday night.
While at first glance it may seem like the Sky must not have any rim protection, they actually have one of the league's better shot blockers in Elizabeth Williams, and Alanna Smith has impressed on that side of the ball this season as well. Smith's foul trouble in Game 1 didn't help, but the issue stemmed from how easy it was for the Aces to get into the paint in the first place.
Whether it was beating their defender off the dribble, using a screen to get a switch or some momentum going downhill, or making a smart cut, the Aces were ghosting into the lane all too often. From there, it was a layup or a pass to an open teammate. While the Aces only shot 32-of-74 overall from the field, they were 22-of-37 in the paint.
If that happens again in Game 2 -- which, to be honest, it likely will -- the Sky have no chance.
Atlanta Dream: Play Haley Jones
The Dream blowing Game 1 of this series, in which they got a huge night from Rhyne Howard and had their best 3-point shooting effort of the entire season, does not bode well for their chances of turning it around. So how do they bounce back on Tuesday night and force a Game 3 back in Atlanta?
One potential adjustment is playing Haley Jones. The No. 6 overall pick appeared in all 40 games this season and averaged 15 minutes, but did not get off the bench in Game 1. Rotations are shortened in the playoffs, and coaches understandably lean towards experience, but it was still a surprise that Jones didn't play at all. Especially considering that the up-and-down nature of the game favored her skillset and all three of Danielle Robinson, Aari McDonald and AD Durr struggled.
Jones would give the Dream some much-needed additional playmaking, and some size to help deal with the Wings' big frontcourt, which outrebounded the Dream by 12 en route to 16 second-chance points. Furthermore, Jones was a member of the Dream's best lineup this season, alongside Howard, Allisha Gray, Cheynne Parker and Nia Coffey. That group had a plus-16.4 net rating, and while Coffey is out for the season it makes sense to still try the other four together.
That's not to say Jones suddenly has to play 20 minutes in a road playoff game, but it's worth giving her a chance.
Washington Mystics: Make some 3-pointers
During the regular season, the New York Liberty shot the 3-pointer at a historic level. They set all-time records for makes per game (11.1) and total makes (444), all while leading the league in percentage at 37.4%. The Mystics, on the other hand, while willing to let it fly, averaged 7.8 3s per game and shot 33.6% from downtown, which ranked fifth and seventh in the league, respectively.
That 3-point shooting differential was a concern for the Mystics heading into the series, and it was realized in the second half of Game 1. While the Mystics largely played very well and made things difficult for the Liberty's offense, all it took was a few 3s going in for them to lose separation. In the end, the Liberty went 12-of-34 from behind the arc, while the Mystics shot 5-of-22. In a 15-point loss, the Mystics were outscored by 21 in that department.
While "make more shots" isn't really an adjustment, the truth of the matter is the Mystics are going to lose this series if they don't make 3-pointers. The good news is they created some good looks in Game 1 with their drive-and-kick game.
They didn't knock enough down, but the formula is there to have a better shooting night in Game 2.
