Nothing in life is linear.
For instance: while having a month of playing time helps, not every AAF team is automatically going to get better. That's impossible. Not everyone can improve week after week. For some teams to get better, others need to get worse. No team has fallen harder over the past three weeks than the Arizona Hotshots, the very group that graced the top of these power rankings before the season even began.
Chalk that up to a bad guess, but the Hotshots at least looked the part of a No. 1 team during opening weekend with a 38-22 win over the Salt Lake Stallions. Since then, though, it's been a steady decline that culminated in back-to-back losses, the most recent of which came at home to the league's bottom feeder.
Where does Arizona rank this week? Updated thoughts on all eight teams can be found below.
1. Orlando Apollos (4-0)
Can anyone best Orlando? Anyone? Bueller? The Apollos went on the road, in the snow, and covered against Salt Lake in Week 4. Apollos general manager Tim Ruskell told me over the weekend that what makes Steve Spurrier so difficult to coach against is that he hasn't been showing any real tendencies; he mixes things up so frequently. But you also have to have a skilled roster to do that, and Spurrier has the AAF's best quarterback (Garrett Gilbert) and receiver (Charles Johnson). Saturday's road trip at Birmingham will be interesting. Previously: No. 1
2. Birmingham Iron (3-1)
Speaking of the Iron, they remain at No. 2 despite a one-point loss to San Antonio. Say this for Birmingham: even the 12-11 defeat was extremely #onbrand. The offense has numerous problems, though they weren't a liability until now. Quarterback Luis Perez still hasn't thrown a touchdown and his decision-making has been iffy. Still, that defense is lights-out in the red zone, having allowed only one touchdown on six goal-to-go situations. That'll keep the Iron in every game, but with Orlando on the horizon, they need to find a way to manufacture some points. Previously: No. 2
Oh you thought you’d get a touchdown on the Iron Curtain? Think again.
— Birmingham Iron (@aafiron) March 4, 2019
❌❌❌❌❌❌#ForgeOn⚒🔥 pic.twitter.com/nO3FqCjMaq
3. San Antonio Commanders (2-2)
It's hard to quite know what to make of this team, which is appropriate since the tangled yarn part of power rankings begins at No. 3. I don't agree with the notion that they're "better than their record," though they certainly have the most top-heavy resume of anyone so far. The Commanders have two quality wins and two losses, one to Orlando and one on the road, by 20, to San Diego. Put this defense against a more capable offense and they've given up big plays. The Birmingham win was crucial. The game at Arizona in Week 5 will tell us a lot, too. Previously: No. 5
4. San Diego Fleet (2-2)
Not only did the Fleet give Memphis its first win of the season, they lost quarterback Philip Nelson in the process. Nelson suffered a fractured clavicle in the first half of last Saturday's game and is out at least a month, maybe longer, which would effectively sideline him for the rest of the regular season. Woof. Can the defense will this team to win enough to make the playoffs? Or can Week 1 starter Mike Bercovici circle the wagons and do enough offensively? The remaining schedule doesn't afford many breaks. Previously: No. 3
5. Salt Lake Stallions (1-3)
Here's a team I actually believe is better than its record. Two of the Stallions' three losses are to Orlando and Birmingham by an average of six points and they played both close. But the tough East division games are behind them now. Four of their next six games are against divisional opponents, and with San Diego's quarterback injury and Arizona trending in the wrong direction, there's an opportunity for the Stallions to have a record that better reflects how tough they've been. Previously: No. 6
6. Arizona Hotshots (2-2)
To think that Arizona was the preseason No. 1 team here. It's not just that the Hotshots lost their second straight game ... or even that it was to Atlanta. Arizona looked straight-up lost in Week 4 and it's concerning. The defense allowed four plays of 30 or more yards to a Legends offense that ranked last in the AAF in points per game. They had no answer for Aaron Murray's scrambling ability. And from 38 points in Week 1 to 11 points in Week 4, the offense has practically disappeared. It's one thing to lose, it's another to start going backwards, which is what the Hotshots are doing. Previously: No. 4
7. Memphis Express (1-3)
Good on Mike Singletary's team for finally getting its first win. The reality is Memphis has been playing like an improved team for the past several weeks, but with quarterback Zach Mettenberger moving the sticks, the Express are far more capable of winning. The defense is extremely disruptive, having forced four turnovers against San Diego last week. While the East division race looks set with Orlando and Birmingham, the Express may be able to make some noise in the back stretch of the season if they keep playing like this. Previously: No. 7
8. Atlanta Legends (1-3)
Sorry, Legends, but someone has to be last. Still, what an encouraging performance on the road -- their third road game already this year -- against Arizona. Aaron Murray brought a new dimension to the offense off the bench with his legs, for which the Hotshots couldn't account. And there are some good playmakers on defense like safety Tyson Graham, who has been a beast in run support. Memphis at Atlanta in Week 5 will be the battle for seventh! Maybe even sixth! Previously: No. 8