The No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini seek a third straight dominant victory when they meet the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday in the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Illinois (28-8) rolled past Morehead State 85-69 in the opening round and trounced Duquesne 89-63 on Saturday en route to its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2005. The Fighting Illini will have a tougher time against Iowa State (29-7), which did not allow more than 65 points in triumphs over South Dakota State and Washington State.

Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is set for 10:09 p.m. ET. The Cyclones are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Iowa State vs. Illinois odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 146. Before entering any Illinois vs. Iowa State picks, make sure you see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 152-109 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It also has a strong 32-21 (+890) record on top-rated spread picks this season, and it called 13 Sweet 16 teams this year. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Iowa State and revealed its March Madness picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Iowa State vs. Illinois:

  • Iowa State vs. Illinois spread: Iowa State -1.5
  • Iowa State vs. Illinois over/under: 146 points
  • Iowa State vs. Illinois money line: Iowa State -125, Illinois +105
  • ISU: 26-10 ATS this season 
  • ILL: 21-13-1 ATS this season 
  • Iowa State vs. Illinois picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Iowa State can cover

The Cyclones have been receiving strong offensive efforts from numerous players in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Five players scored in double figures in their first-round victory and four reached the 10-point mark in Saturday's win. Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones reached double digits in both of Iowa State's contests, while senior forward Hason Ward scored 10 points off the bench in the opener against South Dakota State. Jones, a senior guard, also has produced in a reserve role, recording 11 points versus the Jackrabbits and 14 in the triumph over Washington State.

Momcilovic led Iowa State with 19 points in the first-round win and Lipsey had a team-high 15 on Saturday. Lipsey, who is first on the Cyclones with an average of 4.9 assists, has dished out 11 in the NCAA Tournament. The sophomore guard also has gone 5-for-9 from beyond the arc and made all five of his free throws. See which team to pick here.

Why Illinois can cover

The Fighting Illini already have received some huge individual performances in the NCAA Tournament, including two from Terrence Shannon Jr. The senior guard led Illinois with 26 points against Morehead State and was 10-for-14 from the floor en route to 30 points versus Duquesne. Shannon is one 30-point effort away from matching the single-season school record of eight set in 1972-73 by Nick Weatherspoon. He's also looking to become the fourth player in program history to score at least 20 points in three straight NCAA Tournament games.

Senior forward Marcus Domask also has been a big contributor during March Madness thus far. He collected 12 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in Illinois' first-round victory for the first triple-double registered in the NCAA Tournament since Murray State's Ja Morant accomplished the feat in 2019. He followed that performance with 22 points and a game-high seven assists on Saturday. See which team to pick here

How to make Illinois vs. Iowa State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 145 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine

So who wins Iowa State vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 32-21 roll on top-ranked college basketball spread picks, and find out.