A Thursday Night Football matchup features the Denver Broncos (2-2) hosting the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) in a primetime battle. The Colts will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who is out with an ankle injury, while the Broncos will be without young running back Javonte Williams, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. Last Sunday, the Colts lost to the Tennessee Titans, 24-17. Similarly, Denver fell to the Las Vegas Raiders, 32-23.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as a three-point favorite in the latest Broncos vs. Colts odds. The over/under for total points is 42. Before making any Colts vs. Broncos picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Broncos vs. Colts and just locked in its picks and TNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Colts vs. Broncos:

  • Broncos vs. Colts spread: Denver -3
  • Broncos vs. Colts over/under: 42 points
  • Broncos vs. Colts money line: Indianapolis +143, Denver -170
  • IND: Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a straight-up loss
  • DEN: Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with losing road records
  • Broncos vs. Colts picks: See picks here

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver's defensive line has players who can create pressure and get after the quarterback. Defensive end Dre'Mont Jones is underrated and consistently makes plays. Jones is solid against the run with pass-rush moves to get into the backfield. The Ohio State product has 14 total tackles, three TFLs, and two sacks. Bradley Chubb is another force off the edge for the Broncos.

Chubb owns long arms and an array of moves to evade blockers. The 2020 Pro Bowler explodes off the line and is very active. He's leading the team in sacks (three) along with three tackles for loss. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II has been playing well through the first quarter of the season. Surtain II owns elite size, length, and instincts with fluid hips. The Alabama product thrives in man coverage but is superb in zone. He's logged 15 tackles with a team-high four pass deflections.

Why the Colts can cover

Indianapolis has a versatile and effective secondary that plays quickly and stays disciplined on the backend. The Colts are 10th in passing yards allowed (207.5). Cornerback Kenny Moore II is a valuable piece in the slot for this team. Moore II excels as a blitzer off the edge and has natural ball-hawking skills. The 2021 Pro-Bowler is third on the team in total tackles (19) with a pass-deflection.

Stephon Gilmore is still a strong and well-rounded corner on the outside. Gilmore has been instinctive throughout his career with the ability to consistently break up passes. The five-time Pro-Bowl selection currently has 14 total tackles with two pass deflections. Safety Rodney McLeod is a savvy veteran on the backend who doesn't make many mistakes while still owning solid closing speed. The UVA product has logged 15 stops, two pass deflections, and one interception.

How to make Broncos vs. Colts picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the total, calling for 40 combined points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Colts vs. Broncos on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.