The Buffalo Bills (6-4) will travel to Caesars Superdome to match up against the New Orleans Saints (5-5) to close out the NFL Thanksgiving Day 2021 schedule. As of right now, Buffalo is the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after being blown out by the Indianapolis Colts. Even though New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak, the Saints are still the seventh seed in the NFC playoff picture. This matchup may have huge playoff implications for both teams.
Kickoff from Caesars Superdome is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by seven points in the latest Saints vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 45. Before locking in your Bills vs. Saints picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Bills vs. Saints 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Saints:
- Bills vs. Saints spread: Buffalo -7
- Bills vs. Saints over-under: 45 points
- Bills vs. Saints money line: Buffalo -290, New Orleans +235
- BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS loss
- NO: Under is 8-0-1 in Saints' last nine Thursday games
Why the Bills can cover
Linebacker Matt Milano is fourth on the team with 49 total tackles and first with 10 tackles for loss. Milano has recorded nine total tackles in back-to-back games and is surrounded by a very talented cornerback room. Tre'Davious White is the No. 1 corner on this unit and has logged 41 total tackles. The two-time Pro Bowler has five pass deflections along with one interception.
Taron Johnson has played extremely well in the slot. He is third on the team in total tackles (50) and third in pass deflections (six). Rounding out this versatile cornerback room is Levi Wallace, who is first on the squad with eight pass deflections with two interceptions. The Alabama product has logged at least one pass deflection in seven games.
Why the Saints can cover
New Orleans is ranked 10th in total defense with 342 total yards per game. This unit is led by linebacker Demario Davis, who has a team-high 65 total tackles, including 44 solo. The 2012 third-round pick is first on the team with 10 tackles for loss. Davis has logged at least eight tackles in four games, including two games with double-digit stops.
Marshon Lattimore is the No. 1 corner on this squad and is tied for fifth in the NFL with 10 pass deflections. The Ohio State product has secured 33 total tackles with one interception. Six-time Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan is a strong defender coming off the edge. Jordan is second on the team with five tackles for loss while logging three sacks.
How to make Bills vs. Saints picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Bills vs. Saints picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Saints on Thanksgiving night? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Saints spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on NFL picks, and find out.