The NFL and Thanksgiving Day go hand-in-hand and some of the most tradition-rich franchises in the league will all be in action on Thursday. The three-game 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule leads off with Bears vs. Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET, will be followed by Cowboys vs. Raiders on CBS and concludes with Bills vs. Saints. And if you're looking to pay off some of your Black Friday shopping in advance, there are hundreds of Thanksgiving Day NFL prop odds to consider.
Ezekiel Elliott produced 400 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in his first three Thanksgiving games but had just 39 scrimmage yards and failed to score last year. The latest NFL on Thanksgiving Day prop lines from Caesars Sportsbook list the over-under for Elliott scrimmage yards at 87.5. But which side should you be backing with your NFL player prop wagers? Before making any NFL prop bets for Thanksgiving Day, you need to see the NFL prop predictions for Bears vs. Lions, Cowboys vs. Raiders and Bills vs. Saints from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
It can also be used to crush NFL prop picks. Last season, its NFL prop bets went 389-310, returning over $3,000.
With the NFL on Thanksgiving Day approaching, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.
Top NFL player prop bets for Thanksgiving Day
After simulating all three NFL Thanksgiving games 10,000 times, the model predicts that Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott goes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-180). Despite turning in disappointing performances in two of its last three games, the Dallas offense is still No. 3 in the NFL in scoring and No. 1 in total offense and Prescott's prolific passing is a huge reason why.
Prescott ranks second in the NFL in catchable pass rate (81.8 percent) and that accuracy combined with an exceptional group of playmakers has helped him throw for multiple touchdowns in seven of his nine starts this season. Prescott has thrown a total of 20 touchdown passes in 2021 and he'll take on a Raiders pass defense that has given up 16 passing touchdowns in its last seven games. That's a big reason why the model predicts that Prescott throws for 2.20 touchdown passes on average in its simulations, making the over the value play, even with it juiced to -180.
SportsLine's NFL model also says Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley goes over 4.5 receptions for a plus-money (+105) payout. Throughout his career, Beasley has been a reliable safety valve from the slot. Since joining the Bills three seasons ago, he's been fed the ball with a higher frequency and has been even more productive than ever in his 30s.
Beasley has been targeted 287 times in 40 games with the Bills and has caught a total of 206 passes during that span. That's an average of over 5.0 receptions per game and he's had at least five receptions 19 times. He's also had at least five receptions in four of his last five appearances on Thanksgiving Day and the model predicts an average of 4.7 catches, creating value on the over at plus-money.
How to place NFL prop bets for Bears-Lions, Cowboys-Raiders and Bills-Saints
In addition, the model says another star easily surpasses his yardage total, and has another plus-money prop payout you'll want to jump on. You need to see the model's analysis before targeting any NFL on Thanksgiving Day prop bets for Bears vs. Lions, Cowboys vs. Raiders and Bills vs. Saints.
Which Thanksgiving Day NFL prop bets should you target on Thursday? And what other plus-money prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see the top NFL on Thanksgiving Day prop bets, all from the model that's up almost $7,300 on top-rated NFL picks.