You can't win a Super Bowl in the offseason, but you can lose one.
Case in point: Last year's Houston Texans, a playoff-caliber team that made the bold move last offseason to hand Brock Osweiler a mega-deal despite never really even meeting with him or seeing him play high-quality football. Osweiler ended up throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, was replaced at times by Tom Savage and failed to turn the Texans into a championship-caliber team. The Texans' reckless bet on Osweiler didn't just doom their season, it also damaged their long-term future -- they were forced to give the Browns a second-round pick when they traded Osweiler's contract to Cleveland.
We crowned our offseason winners Tuesday, which for the record, definitely doesn't guarantee those teams and individuals success during the 2017 NFL season. Just ask the Jaguars about last season. Now, it's time to crown our offseason losers, which also doesn't guarantee failure in the upcoming season for these players and teams, but it definitely doesn't make their upcoming task (to win football games) any easier.
Doing what a team like the Texans did last offseason is the equivalent of launching into space in a faulty spaceship. At that point, only R2-D2 can save you and I hate to break it to you, but that droid is from a long time ago and a galaxy far, far away.
With that, let's look at 10 candidates ...
10. The Bears, Texans and Chiefs
All three teams traded multiple draft assets to draft rookie quarterbacks. As history shows, trading up to draft quarterbacks almost always backfires. The only known fact about the draft is that it is a crap shoot. Nobody -- including general managers -- really has a clue if their draft picks will result in NFL-caliber players. That's why it's important to stockpile picks, so you have a better chance of winning the lottery. Going all in on one player, and giving away picks in the process, rarely works.
I mean, just think about how often highly drafted quarterbacks turn out to be awful. Odds are at least two of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round (Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson) will be bad.
A history of first-round quarterbacks since 2000:
- Chad Pennington (OK)
- Michael Vick (OK)
- David Carr (bad)
- Joey Harrington (bad)
- Patrick Ramsey (bad)
- Carson Palmer (good)
- Byron Leftwich (bad)
- Kyle Boller (bad)
- Rex Grossman (bad)
- Eli Manning (good)
- Philip Rivers (good)
- Ben Roethlisberger (good)
- J.P. Losman (bad)
- Alex Smith (OK)
- Aaron Rodgers (good)
- Jason Campbell (bad)
- Vince Young (bad)
- Matt Leinart (bad)
- Jay Cutler (OK)
- JaMarcus Russell (bad)
- Brady Quinn (bad)
- Matt Ryan (good)
- Joe Flacco (not elite)
- Matthew Stafford (good)
- Mark Sanchez (bad)
- Josh Freeman (bad)
- Sam Bradford (bad)
- Tim Tebow (LOL)
- Cam Newton (good)
- Jake Locker (bad)
- Blaine Gabbert (bad)
- Christian Ponder (bad)
- Andrew Luck (good)
- Robert Griffin III (bad)
- Ryan Tannehill (OK)
- Brandon Weeden (bad)
- EJ Manuel (bad)
- Blake Bortles (bad)
- Johnny Manziel (bad)
- Teddy Bridgewater (injured)
- Jameis Winston (OK)
- Marcus Mariota (good)
- Jared Goff (undecided)
- Carson Wentz (undecided)
- Paxton Lynch (undecided)
So by my counts that's:
- 10 "good" quarterbacks of 45
- 23 "bad" quarterbacks of 45
- 6 OK quarterbacks
- 3 undecideds
- 1 LOL (Tim Tebow)
- 1 not elite (Joe Flacco)
- 1 injured (Teddy Bridgewater), which basically translates to "bad," though it's not his fault
You can disagree with the labels I gave certain quarterbacks, but it really won't impact the list that much.
Despite significant evidence against trading up, Bears GM Ryan Pace defended his decision to trade four draft picks to move up one spot by saying, "As an organization, we had conviction on this quarterback and we did what we had to do to get him." In turn, Bears fans have defended the trade by saying something along the lines of, "If you find your guy, you've got to go get him."
That's flawed. GMs who drafted Bortles, Ponder and Manuel all thought they would turn into great NFL quarterbacks. The fact of the matter is that even GMs don't know if they've drafted the next Manning or the next Bortles. Taking a chance on an unknown like Trubisky by giving up an array of draft ammunition is a bad process, as our Will Brinson recently explained.
9. Mike Glennon, Alex Smith, Tom Savage
Mike Glennon made a nice amount of money this offseason, so in that sense he's a winner. But he's a loser because he won't be starting in Chicago for long. He has no chance to be the Bears' long-term starter. The selection of Trubisky ruined that. You know it's bad when Jay Cutler is calling it a bad situation and offering advice.
Meanwhile, Alex Smith's time in Kansas City is coming to an end because the Chiefs took Mahomes. Even Smith knows it.
"I think [the Chiefs are] committed to me [only] through this year," Smith said, via ESPN.com. "That's just the nature of it. If you don't go out there and perform, I mean, coach [Andy] Reid and [quarterbacks coach Matt Nagy] are very honest. You've got to go out there and do your deal. We all have to."
Finally, Tom Savage's chance to be the undisputed starter in Houston ended when the Texans drafted Watson. It'll be shocking if Watson can't beat out Savage in a quarterback competition this summer.
8. Tony Romo's suitors
Maybe it's not the Texans' fault they didn't sign Romo, who chose to work for CBS instead of playing football. But consider this: The Texans went from potentially having Romo quarterback their playoff team to being forced to trade up to draft a rookie who might not be any good. The Texans were this close to being a fringe Super Bowl contender with a top-10 quarterback (when healthy). Now, they're hoping a college quarterback can make the transition. Their traditional 9-7 season followed by an early playoff exit looks more likely.
The same goes for the Broncos -- except they're not banking on a rookie quarterback. They hope Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch drastically improves enough in one offseason to complement a championship-ready defense. The Broncos might've bucked the trend by winning a Super Bowl without a decent quarterback a couple seasons ago, but they're unlikely to do it again. You need competent quarterback play to win.
7. Overtime
Its already short lifespan got sliced by five minutes in the name of player safety. Player safety in football, a sport so violent that it likely wouldn't be allowed to exist if it were invented today, probably won't be fixed by reducing the maximum length of overtime games from 75 to 70 minutes. This seems like trying to fix a broken arm by slapping a colorful bandage on it. The arm won't heal, but it'll at least look a bit more pretty to glancing eyes.
Get ready for more ties, something every football fan loves.
6. Latavius Murray
Murray seemingly was the Vikings' choice to replace Adrian Peterson. That's why they signed him this offseason, right?
And then the Vikings went out and drafted Dalvin Cook -- a first-round talent whose draft stock fell because of off-field concerns -- in the second round. Murray has never been a top talent. When he has been most effective, he has been more of a workhorse than a productive runner (4.2 yards per carry). With Cook on the roster, I'm guessing the rookie eventually winds up being the team's better back.
And then there's the fact Murray is going from running behind the Raiders' dominant line to the Vikings' not-so-dominant line.
5. The Jaguars
They failed to fix their biggest hole: quarterback. Bortles is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. As I wrote earlier, since he entered the NFL three seasons ago, he ranks 45th in completion percentage, 45th in yards per attempt, 28th in touchdown percentage, 43rd in interception percentage and 41st in passer rating (minimum 200 pass attempts).
While I applaud the Jaguars for not doing something stupid to jeopardize their long-term future (like the Bears, Texans and Chiefs), they still could've brought in an upgrade for relatively cheap -- someone like Cutler or Colin Kaepernick. Yes, Cutler retired, but as Cutler said, he was pretty much forced to retire because teams weren't interested.
By giving Bortles another chance, the Jaguars are likely punting on their chances to make a surprise trip to the postseason.
4. Mark Ingram's Fantasy owners
Ingram will split carries with Peterson, who landed in new Orleans after the Vikings cut him.
Ingram was already a frustrating Fantasy player. Though he finished as the 10th-ranked running back in standard scoring leagues, he had nine games in which he notched fewer than 10 Fantasy points.
Get ready for another frustrating year when Peterson leaches carries away from him.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo
Nobody -- not even the Patriots -- knows if Garoppolo will be a good NFL quarterback. Unfortunately for Garoppolo, he won't even find out for himself this year, barring an injury to Tom Brady, which does look a bit more likely now that EA Sports announced that Brady will appear on the cover of "Madden 18."
After his solid one-and-a-half game audition last season, Garoppolo appeared to earn a starting job with some quarterback-needy team in 2017. But the Patriots shocked everyone -- especially Pete Prisco -- when they opted to keep him. Now, Garoppolo will spend another season on the bench behind Brady.
Maybe this will be good for Garoppolo if he ever plays quarterback for the Patriots, but he loses in the short term. If Brady keeps up his level of performance into his 40s and the Patriots decide they want to pay a high price for a top backup quarterback, Garoppolo could be stuck on the bench for a while longer.
2. Scot McCloughan
Under his control, the Redskins turned from an embarrassment into a fringe playoff team. To reward him for his efforts, the Redskins fired him on the first day of free agency. McCloughan, a talented talent evaluator, couldn't take part in the combine, free agency or the draft.
For his part, McCloughan has handled unemployment remarkably well. First, he took the high road in his first interview, doing nothing but compliment the team. Then, he and his wife donated $2,000 to charity (including half of that to the Redskins' charitable foundation) after auctioning off some of his team gear.
1. Colin Kaepernick
He is good enough to be among the league's top 32 quarterbacks, and inarguably better than:
- Jaguars starter Blake Bortles
- Jets starter Josh McCown
- 49ers starter Brian Hoyer
He's arguably better than:
- Bears starter (for now) Mike Glennon
- Browns starters Cody Kessler/DeShone Kizer/Brock Osweiler
- Texans starters Tom Savage/Deshaun Watson
Still, Kaepernick remains unsigned -- quite possibly because he chose to protest racial injustice in the U.S. by kneeling during the national anthem last season. Even though Kaepernick reportedly won't continue his protest this coming season, he can't find a team.
If Kaepernick winds up in Seattle as Russell Wilson's backup, he'll emerge from the offseason fine and well. But that doesn't mean we should rush to give the Seahawks credit, as our Jason La Canfora recently wrote. Kaepernick should've been signed long ago.
