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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    +33
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    M. Keller
    Over 16.5
    -113
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: May 1 @ 9:03am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. Mitch Keller has been solid in the middle of the rotation for the upstart Pirates, pitching to a 3.18 ERA (3.84 xERA). Clearing this line in 4/6 starts, Keller is an efficient, pitch-to-contact pitcher who typically avoids barrels. Consistently utilizing less pitches than average (3.74 per plate appearance is 35th lowest of 138 qualifiers), Keller is able to keep his pitch count down. And despite the Reds hot bats (albeit against weaker pitchers of late), I like Keller’s chances to minimize damage today. Cincy’s lineup skews righty, which is the strong side of Keller’s platoon (.311 OPS allowed). Great pitching weather today as well.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    #1
    +2491
    (65%)
    68-36 in Last 104 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Thompson
    Over 6.5
    -143
    Rebounds
    Picked: Apr 30 @ 11:37pm

    Analysis

    Pistons all-world defender Ausar Thompson has played 32 or more minutes in three straight games and is coming off an incredible all-around performance: 15 rebounds, six assists, five steals and two blocks (not to mention six points). The 23-year-old has recorded seven, eight, eight, nine and 15 boards in this series. Fellow starter Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable for Game 6. He's averaging 7.6 rebounds in this series, so his potential absence (or if he's limited) would put even more of a rebounding burden on Thompson. I would also play this Over 7.5 at even money or better.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    player headshot
    D. Bane
    Over 2.5
    +116
    3PT Field Goals
    Picked: May 1 @ 9:18am

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Desmond Bane has averaged 8.8 three point attempts per game this series. His drives to the basket are down in the playoffs from 10.8 in the regular season to 6.2. It makes sense - the Pistons are one of the most physical, one-on-one teams, and Bane is being checked primarily by defensive stalwart (and athletic freak) Ausar Thompson. To compensate, Bane is taking far more pull-up threes (5.4 compared to 2.4 in the regular season). Without Franz Wagner, the Magic will need Bane to score, and I see that coming from behind the arc. A 40.7% shooter at home in the regular season (and 12/19 in the playoffs) - I absolutely love this line, and think it’s mispriced at plus odds.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1214
    (75%)
    41-14 in Last 55 MLB ML Picks
    NYY
    -170
    Money Line
    Picked: May 1 @ 5:03am

    Analysis

    Assume that if playing an ML north of -150 that prefer -1. So what I will do this season -- and it has been working so far -- is play a half-unit on a high ML but would prefer a full unit at -1. This is quite acceptable, though, as it probably should be -200ish and knowing the NY homer market it will be by about noon ET. One huge edge for the Yanks is they were off Thursday to reset the (bad) bullpen and the Orioles not only were not off but had to play a doubleheader vs. Houston and then travel. So if intangibles matter at all -- and I'm an intangibles guy since don't have my own model. Apparently the only one.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Barner
    #2
    +2326
    (60%)
    114-76 in Last 190 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    C. Murray-Boyles
    Over 17.5
    -130
    PTS + REB
    Picked: May 1 @ 6:43am

    Analysis

    Collin Murray-Boyles didn’t do much in the first half of Game 5, but still finished with eight points and five rebounds over 25 minutes. For the series, he is averaging 15.2 points and 6.8 rebounds. In the two home games, he combined for 30 and 25 points and rebounds. Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) is still out, Brandon Ingram (heel) is questionable and it looked like something was bothering Scottie Barnes in the second half of Game 5. Murray-Boyles should play around 25 minutes and take more than the five shots that he attempted Wednesday, so I like this over.

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