The Los Angeles Rams were the clear-cut favorite to win the Super Bowl this season. They had the reigning NFL MVP at quarterback with Matthew Stafford, a dynamic duo at wideout in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and a revamped defense that included trading for Myles Garrett, and persuading Aaron Donald out of retirement. This looked like it could be a super team, but through six weeks, the Rams are 2-4.
The supposed super team is currently dead last in the NFC West, and Sunday's 18-16 loss to the lowly Arizona Cardinals has the NFL world wondering whether the Rams will ever bounce back this year. This was the largest upset loss (13.5-point favorite) by an NFL team in about three years, and now the Rams have some ground to make up in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.
Why are the Rams playing poorly and what does history say about their chances of bouncing back? CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson dove into the numbers to provide us with some insight.
Stafford not in MVP form
Stafford won MVP last year after leading the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46). He hasn't looked the same this season. The stats back up the eye test. This Rams offense just hasn't been explosive like it was in 2025, and Stafford isn't going deep as often. Stafford ranks 14th in percentage of completions gaining 20+ yards (13%). Last year, he ranked third in that category (19%).
Stafford ranks last two seasons
| 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
EPA per dropback | 3rd | 16th |
Air yards per attempt | 1st | 13th |
Percentage of passing attempts over 20+ air yards | 3rd | 20th |
Another factor in Stafford's struggles is his downfield connection with Puka Nacua -- or lack thereof. Stafford is 8 of 20 with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when targeting Nacua 10+ yards downfield this season, and has the same number of completions as interceptions (2) targeting him 20+ yards downfield.
It's not fair to say that the Rams offense is "bad." They rank top three in yards per game (401.3), joining the Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers as the three clubs that average over 400 yards of total offense, but L.A. ranks 20th in scoring offense (22.5). The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers are scoring more points! There's certainly time for Sean McVay to adjust, but the explosive plays just haven't been there.
Special teams anything but special
The Rams have the worst special teams EPA in the NFL this season (-35.8). That means their special teams have cost the Rams roughly 36 points through six weeks. No other team has a special teams EPA worse than -16.9. It's the worst special teams EPA by any team through 6 games since Washington in 2013 (-41.5).
What goes into special teams? Well, for starters, the Rams have the worst field goal percentage in the NFL this season at 60%. They are actually 3 of 7 on field goals in the fourth quarter or overtime over the past two seasons -- which ranks worst in the NFL.
The Rams are also the only team in the NFL to rank in the bottom 10 in kickoff and punt return averages... on BOTH sides this season. L.A. ranks third-worst in average starting field position (28.0), and opponent average starting field position (34.5).
| Category | Rank |
|---|---|
Kickoff return average | 28th |
Punt return average | 24th |
Opponent kickoff return average | 29th |
Opponent punt return average | 27th |
Injuries mounting
As CBS Sports Research points out, the Rams have yet to play a game with all of their stars, as Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald haven't shared the field just yet. Garrett played 40 defensive snaps in the season opener before undergoing knee surgery that landed him on injured reserve. Still, Aaron Donald hasn't looked like Aaron Donald thus far, as he's recorded just two QB hits and seven pressures with zero sacks in four games this season. It's the first time in his Hall of Fame career that Donald has gone four straight games without a sack in a single season.
As we exit Week 6, injuries are beginning to mount for the Rams. That includes star wideout Davante Adams and a couple of important defensive tackles in Poona Ford and Kobie Turner.
| Player | Timetable |
|---|---|
WR Davante Adams | Out 6-10 weeks (hamstring) |
Currently on IR (ankle) | |
DT Poona Ford | Out for season (triceps) |
DT Kobie Turner | Out 4-6 weeks (groin) |
Can they turn it around?
As you would expect, the 2-4 Rams are no longer the favorites to win the Super Bowl over at DraftKings Sportsbook, but surprisingly, they are tied with the Seattle Seahawks in having the fifth-shortest odds at +1200. Those are better odds than the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
With that said, odds aren't the best indicator of future success. According to our SportsLine projections, the Rams' playoff hopes have fallen from 90.1% to 26.0% since the start of the season. Their Super Bowl odds, on the other hand, have dropped from 16.3% to 1.5%.
So, the question is: can the Rams rebound? This is just the fifth instance where an outright preseason Super Bowl favorite has a losing record through six games over the past 50 seasons. None of the previous four teams made their conference championship game (2015 Seahawks, 2002 Rams, 1999 Vikings, 1987 Giants).
Only one team in NFL history has won a Super Bowl when under .500 this late into a season, and that was the 2001 Patriots. That year, quarterback Drew Bledsoe went down with a serious chest injury in Week 2 and was replaced by some guy named Tom Brady. New England started that season 3-4, but finished on an 8-1 run to win the division, and ultimately defeated Kurt Warner's Rams in the Super Bowl despite being two-touchdown underdogs.
