It's almost laughable at this point to think anybody could truly doubt Khabib Nurmagomedov. While the undefeated lightweight champion stands without a true elite test on his resume, the results remain the same. And on Saturday night in the main event of UFC 229, on the biggest stage available to him against Conor McGregor, it will not change.
Here are four reasons why Nurmagomedov will walk away victorious once again over McGregor at UFC 229.
1. No fear: You can say what you want about "The Eagle" and his porous resume, but his gumption to fight anyone, anytime, anywhere was in full bloom earlier this year. Originally scheduled to take on Tony Ferguson in the main event of UFC 223 for the full lightweight title, Nurmagomedov had the option to delay his title opportunity when Ferguson suffered a freak knee injury the week before their bout. Instead, he signed on to face featherweight champion Max Holloway on six days' notice. Then, when Holloway was deemed medically unfit to fight, Nurmagomedov once again stepped to the plate by agreeing to take on Al Iaquinta on roughly 28 hours notice, all the while dealing with the frenzy surrounding McGregor and his rampage on the fighters' bus just two days before the main event.
Nurmagomedov went on to disarm and dismantle Iaquinta over five rounds for a unanimous decision win. While McGregor himself is no stranger to fighters pulling out of fights last minute, he has never been through circumstances quite that insane ahead of arguably the biggest fight of his career to date.
2. Wrestle, young man, wrestle: If there has been a weakness in McGregor's game throughout his career, it's clearly been a lack of ground game/submission skills. In theory, this plays right into the type of fight Nurmagomedov should want. Khabib is as strong as wrestler as there is in UFC. Even McGregor noted it at the first press conference between the two fighters when he noted "You grab a leg and hold on, what kind of fighting is that?" Yet, his 45 percent takedown rate is almost absurd.
Against Edson Barboza, a well-known striker and kickboxer, Nurmagomedov only scored on four of his 13 takedown attempts. The problem becomes once he gets you on the mat, it's like trying to solve a Rubik's cube getting him off. Nurmagomedov put on one of the most dominant three-round performances in UFC history against Barboza, outlanding him 154-25 while in a controlling position for 10:32 of the 15-minute bout. He won 30-25, 30-25, 30-24 on the judges' scorecards. Against Iaquinta, Khabib outlanded him 172-43, though 41 of Iaquinta's strikes were deemed significant to only 34 for Nurmagomedov.
The two times we have truly seen McGregor tested with wrestling were against Chad Mendes and Nate Diaz, though in the first fight it was the Irishman who initiated the ground game. Mendes was on his way to grinding out a decision, but a late submission attempt in the second round allowed McGregor to get up and finish the fight. For Nurmagomedov to be successful, he must be patient with his attack on the mat and force McGregor to make calculated decisions.
3. Pressure, pressure, pressure: Speaking of which, this might be the aspect I'm most looking forward to in the fight: who takes control of the Octagon. Typically, McGregor goes out and pushes the pace to his liking, forcing his opponents to retreat and fight on their heels. But Khabib fights in a similar fashion by constantly pressing forward and not giving foes an inch to breath before attempting takedowns. The winner of this fight will likely be whoever is able to establish their distance early on, whether it's McGregor forcing Khabib to back off with his length and kicks or Nurmagomedov pressing forward for takedowns.
We have yet to truly see someone dictate the pace against Khabib, even though he did start to toy with Iaquinta late in that fight. However, if Nurmagomedov does get baited into a slugfest, I have a lot less confidence in him being able to survive.
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4. This is nothing McGregor has seen before: That type of phrase does get tossed around a lot in these big-money fights as a promotional tactic, but in this case, it's actually true. Nate Diaz is a lightweight counter puncher who had no interest in fighting on the ground. Eddie Alvarez was a fantastic wrestler and decent striker who got baited into a standup game. Jose Aldo went in guns blazing for a knockout and got caught with a vicious strike in 13 seconds. To me, Nurmagomedov is the complete package and perfect foil to McGregor's style. He also won't be baited into a standup contest because the mind games. He's as close to a cerebral assassin as we have in combat sports.
You can have all the flash, all the bravado, all the swagger, but at the end of the day, Nurmagomedov is the better fighter and he will prove it on six October.
