It's almost time for another UFC pay-per-view event as UFC 304 goes down Saturday in Manchester, England. The card is headlined by a pair of rematches that both ended in unfortunate ways the first time around. Leon Edwards looks to defend his welterweight title against rising contender Belal Muhammad while interim heavyweight king Tom Aspinall looks for revenge against Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event.
Edwards has risen to prominence at 170 pounds thanks in large part to the head kick heard around the world. Edwards, who waited a lengthy time to finally get his crack at the welterweight title against Kamaru Usman, was down big on the scorecards in the final round of their 2022 clash. Then, Edwards landed a picture-perfect headkick that knocked Usman out cold to claim the title. Edwards went on to win their rematch in 2023 by decision and carries a 13-fight unbeaten streak into the rematch with Muhammad. The two originally met in 2021 when an inadvertent eye poke by Edwards left Muhammad unable to continue, leading to a no contest. Now, Muhammad looks to get his revenge after winning five in a row since that meeting.
The co-main event sees Aspinall defend his belt against Blaydes. The first meeting between the two only lasted 15 seconds before Aspinall suffered a knee injury, giving Blaydes the win on paper. Aspinall now holds the interim title while Jon Jones has been planning a fight with Stipe Miocic that has been delayed by injury, leading some to claim that it is Aspinall who is the true UFC heavyweight king.
After going 2-2 with our best bets for UFC 303, we are sitting with a record of 16-18 on the year. That's not a winning record, but we're on track to get out of the red, hopefully starting with UFC 304. Check out UFC betting sites if interested in picking any fight on this card.
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns landed: Yes (-165)
These takedown prop bets aren't available at all sportsbooks, but we came across this line at DraftKings and it is a solid play. Allen averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes, which isn't a ton but when given the right opponent he will go to the grappling. Chikadze has a 69% takedown defense rate and comes in as the taller man and rangier striker. That means Allen will have to work to get inside to land his strikes. Once inside, there will be opportunities to take the fight to the ground and work the top game, which seems like a good gameplan for Allen in this pairing. Very good wrestlers have been able to put Allen on his back repeatedly, such as his most recent fight, a loss to Movsar Evloev that saw Evloev score five takedowns. But worse wrestlers than Allen have taken Chikadze down repeatedly and we're only looking for Allen to finish a single takedown here.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Christian Leroy Duncan moneyline (-135)
This is set up to be a tremendous fight between two dangerous strikers. It got the late call up to the main card, bumping Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape down to the prelims. Duncan is an inch shorter but has a four-inch advantage in reach, which could come into play. Rodrigues also gets hit a bit more frequently than Duncan. This whole fight flips in a big way if Rodrigues decides to use his grappling, which would be his easiest path to victory. This feels like it plays out as a striking bout, however, and that gives Duncan a slight edge.
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett moneyline (+100)
The idea here is that Green is the long-demanded "dangerous foe" for Pimblett, who really deserved to lose to Jared Gordon at UFC 282. In reality, though? The UFC isn't looking to cash Pimblett out against a fighter like Green and it feels like this is matchmaking designed to look more dangerous than it really is. Pimblett isn't likely to stand in the pocket and go punch-for-punch with Green since Green has far more one-shot power. Pimblett is going to be on his bike, looking to potshot and find moments to score takedowns. I think he can do that effectively enough over three rounds to either pull off a tight decision or find a submission on the floor. Since both possibilities are in play, we roll with the Pimblett moneyline.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Tom Aspinall via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+110)
Aspinall's hand speed is fantastic for a heavyweight and he's solid movement skills to go along with that. We've seen Blaydes get hurt by less effective strikers such as Sergei Pavlovich and also by men with unique power like Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis. There's not much to take away from the 15-second first meeting between these two other than that Blaydes wanted to counter and Aspinall suffered an injury after landing a good leg kick. Blaydes is going to need to land a fight-changing shot and those aren't likely to come beyond single punches given Aspinall's defense and speed. Meanwhile, Aspinall can get in and out with quick combinations that will likely sting and finish Blaydes, likely keeping up Aspinall's impressive run of first-round finishes.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Leon Edwards via KO/TKO/DQ (+300)
Every now and then, it's worth taking a shot and this is a good spot for it. This is a matchup of very similar fighters in terms of what each man does but then there's just the fact that Edwards is simply better at those things. Muhammad deserves the title shot, he's done everything asked to earn it. But Edwards is at the peak of his powers as a legitimate top-tier fighter. Edwards was piecing Muhammad up in their first fight before the accidental eye poke that brought the fight to a close and that included some heavy shots that had Muhammad a bit rattled. Given five rounds of Edwards putting that same level of striking on Muhammad, the finish can come for the younger, better fighter.
Who wins UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and find out.
